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07/02/2016 | The last GOP debate - The Republican primary contenders have a big televised dust-up

The Economist Staff

SUCCESSFUL in Iowa and surging in New Hampshire, Marco Rubio went into the last televised Republican debate on February 6th knowing two things. He was due a pasting—especially from the three governors, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Jeb Bush, who are vying with him for the mainstream conservative vote.

 

Second, if he could cope with their attacks well, he would have a gilded opportunity to impress both New Hampshire voters, ahead of the state’s primary election on February 9th, and the Republican moneymen looking anxiously for an antidote to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. In the event, Mr Rubio flunked his chance.

In the predicted pile-on it was Mr Christie, also predictably, who landed the most stinging blows on the fresh-faced senator from Florida. “You have not been involved in a consequential decision where you had to be held accountable. You just simply haven’t,” he harangued Mr Rubio—and the senator’s response to Mr Christie’s onslaught was toe-curling bad.

Accused by the New Jersey governor of too easily resorting to a “memorised 30-second speech where you talk about how great America is at the end,” Mr Rubio resorted to the very same, twice. He collected his wit and improved his performance later on, notably in discussing foreign affairs. Yet the impression, which will endure among the donors even if New Hampshire voters overlook it, is of a politician whose attractiveness and flair come with a worrisome callowness and fragility. “Marco Rubio is a gifted, gifted politician,” said Mr Bush, his former mentor in Florida. But then Mr Bush compared him to another first-term senator who became president, Barack Obama: “Soaring eloquence,” he said, “and we didn’t get a leader”. Even as the Republican establishment swings towards Mr Rubio, after his relatively strong third-place finish in Iowa, there are many who harbour that suspicion of him.

Complicating matters further for the establishment, all the governors did pretty well. Mr Christie, articulate and pugnacious, profited in inverse proportion to Mr Rubio. It is interesting to wonder how he might have done with the many Republican voters who want to see their leaders ridiculed if Mr Trump, who is both pugnacious and outrageous, had not entered the race. Mr Kasich and Mr Bush also had probably their best debates so far.

The governor from Ohio was a blithe, smiling presence, rising above the blows, and preaching the pragmatic conservatism—on the need for immigration reform and to worry as much about job creation as about tax cuts—that most New Hampshire voters admire. Mr Bush took the fight to Mr Trump, as usual; unusually some of his hits told. Having been mocked and belittled by the property developer for seven months, Mr Bush must have relished his attack on Mr Trump’s past use of eminent-domain laws. “How tough is it to take property from an elderly woman?” he asked, as to his left the Donald grimaced and gurned.

Mr Trump had one of his quieter nights. With much of the early attention on Mr Rubio, he seemed uncertain how strongly to impose himself on the debate. Having skipped the previous debate, in Iowa—a decision that perhaps contributed to his failure to win its caucuses on February 1st, as he had been expected to do—he was perhaps rusty. And the audience, hand-picked by party bosses, was not sympathetic to him. When Mr Trump told Mr Bush to “shut up” it jeered him. When he promised to repeal Obamacare and replace it with “something so much better”—an accurate reflection of where Mr Trump’s health-care policy has graduated to—it sniggered. 

Mr Cruz, the victor of Iowa, also put in a mixed performance. He demonstrated on several occasions his formidable debating skills; for example when spinning a mendacious explanation for why his campaign team had sought to nobble Ben Carson in Iowa. An anecdote he told about his drug-addicted half-sister—which was especially relevant to New Hampshire, where 45% of people say they know a heroin addict—was also affecting. Yet a problem for Mr Cruz, who is far to the right of most Republican voters, is that he invariably comes across as being rather unpleasant. That is why his pledge to “carpet-bomb” Islamic State, which is a fairly routine example of the war crimes Republican candidates are promising in this contest—nonetheless sticks in the memory. When Mr Trump promised to “bring back waterboarding and…bring back a hell of a lot worse than waterboarding”, it sounded as ridiculous as it was ugly. When Mr Cruz said he would not bring waterboarding back “in any sort of widespread use” he sounded more sinister.  

And yet, Mr Rubio’s stumble and the governors’ strong showing were excellent news for Mr Trump and Mr Cruz. It made it less likely that Mr Rubio will consolidate the 40-odd% of the New Hampshire primary vote that the mainstream candidates currently hold between then. That makes it much likelier that Mr Trump will win the state, where he has come out on top in 70 straight opinion polls.

It also makes it likelier that the mainstream lane of the primary contest will remain congested even after New Hampshire; if Mr Bush were to come fourth there, behind Mr Trump, Mr Cruz and Mr Rubio, for example, he has enough money to stay in the race so long as Mr Rubio looks vulnerable. That, in turn, would make it far easier for either of the current front-runners, Mr Trump and Mr Cruz, to win the nomination.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House