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19/10/2012 | The EU summit - The red-eyed walk to banking union

The Economist Staff

“TONIGHT I have confirmation that the worst is over.” President François Hollande’s bullish assessment came at the end of yet another long night of debate at a European summit. His lectern was marked "Jeudi 18 Octobre", though it was well into vendredi 19.

 

 

The main reason for his optimism was the pre-dawn compromise on banking union: the euro zone’s new banking supervisor was on course to be legally established by the end of the year, and would become operational “in the course of 2013”. So some time next year the euro-zone’s rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) could be used directly to recapitalise troubled banks.

As the French tell the story, European leaders were able to drag Germany back to last June’s promise to create a banking union in order to “break the vicious circle” between weak banks and weak sovereigns, after it had tried to backpedal from several aspects of the deal. Indeed, the agreed timetable was faster than promised in June, noted Mr Hollande, and the ECB will have the power to supervise all 6,000-odd euro-zone banks.

There was other good news too: Greece seemed close to agreement with its creditors, thereby ensuring it would not be thrown out of the euro (a euro-zone statement paid tribute to Greece’s “remarkable effort”). And Spain’s borrowing costs were coming down, thanks to the (conditional) readiness of the European Central Bank to intervene in bond markets.

Even better for Mr Hollande was the fact that there had been no talk of the proposal by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, to create a super-commissioner with the power to dictate budgetary policies to member-states. All such ideas were for the future, said the president, if and when the treaties were revised (eg, to create joint Eurobonds)

The Germans seemed more downbeat and defensive. There would be no direct recapitalisation before next year, noted Angela Merkel, the German chancellor. And bank supervisions would be done in a “differentiated way”, ie, day-to-day supervision of the many smaller German banks would be in the hands of German authorities.

Yet considerable uncertainty remains. The details of bank supervision have been left for finance ministers to work out, with plenty of potential for arguments with non-euro members of the EU concerned about the terms of the ECB’s supervisory powers. Moreover, the modalities of how banks could be recapitalised directly, and how to deal with legacy assets, have yet to be agreed.

When banking union was launched at a summit in June, it was clearly aimed at helping Spain cope with the burden of recapitalising its banks by shifting the additional debt to the ESM. But Mr Hollande, though sympathetic toward Spain’s plight, seemed clear that the new system would not apply to Spain. Madrid would make use of rescue funds previously committed, but would have to carry the debt on its books.

Nevertheless Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish prime minister, declared himself pleased with the summit. Perhaps he still hopes that he will eventually receive help. But tonight it seems more likely that Spain appears to have been sacrificed for the sake of the bargain: Germany would agree to the principle of direct bank recapitalisation in 2013, possibly before its general election in the autumn of 2013, on the understanding that Spain would not actually ask for the money.

If so, this is probably bad news for Ireland, which hoped to benefit from a retroactive arrangement to shift its banking burden to the euro zone. Ireland had been mentioned explicitly in June. But its name has mysteriously vanished from the latest statement.

“The problem for Mrs Merkel is not direct recapitalisation as such, but having to go to the Bundestag to ask for more money,” explained a senior French source. He suggested that Spain could still benefit if confidence in the euro zone was restored and its borrowing costs continue to fall.

Leaders gave the nod to Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council, to draw up a “road map” for future reforms of the euro zone. This includes the idea of “an appropriate fiscal capacity”—in other words, some kind of euro-zone budget.

France would like this to act as an automatic economic stabiliser, which would provide money for countries in a downturn and collect from them in boom times. Germany prefers a discretionary arrangement in which countries undergoing reform can be offered more money—with strings attached. It could be linked to a second idea, of a “contract” between euro-zone members and Brussels on a plan of reforms.

Both Germany and France agree that, whatever its purpose, the euro-zone budget should be separate from the EU’s seven-year budget, which will be fought over at a special summit next month. For Mr Hollande the euro-zone fiscal capacity “should not be subtracted” from the EU budget, but rather added to it. With what money? Probably, say French officials, with funds raised from a new Financial Transactions Tax that 11 euro-zone countries hope to launch as early as next year.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House