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17/06/2011 | Venezuelan politics: Troubles on two fronts

The Economist Staff

The president will need to overcome his own health problems and a vigorous opposition to win re-election.

 

HUGO CHÁVEZ is unwell. The normally voluble, hyperactive Venezuelan president is running his country from a hospital bed in Havana, following an emergency operation on June 10th to deal with a “pelvic abscess” that interrupted the latest of his many official visits to Cuba. Quite what caused the abscess, or exactly how severe it was, has not been revealed. Officials say it is unrelated to the gammy left knee that had already slowed the president down in recent weeks and required him to use a cane. Mr Chávez continues to sign decrees, and his closest aides maintain that he is on the mend and will soon be back in Venezuela. The opposition has asked whether Elías Jaua, the vice-president, should be made acting president, but Mr Jaua says that is unnecessary.

Mr Chávez’s medical difficulties may well be exceeded by his political ones. Venezuela is in the throes of a presidential campaign that does not officially begin until next year. The opposition Democratic Unity coalition is due to choose its candidate in February. Assuming the government does not tamper with the timetable—which is by no means guaranteed—the election will be held in December 2012. But one issue already overshadows all others in this divided nation: can the former army officer, who has been in power since 1999, win a third six-year term?

Having been mired in recession for the past couple of years, and plagued by inflation of close to 30%, the country has recently returned to growth. Thanks in part to higher oil prices, the government is optimistically projecting a 4% rise in GDP this year, although private-sector estimates are around half that rate. Even if growth remains modest, Mr Chávez has squirrelled away billions of dollars in unaudited public funds, and should be able to pay for a pre-election spending binge.

He has already been campaigning for months, having won approval in 2009 for a constitutional amendment that removed presidential term-limits. There is no need for primaries, he said recently, “because it is well-known that I have assumed the responsibility of once again being a candidate for the presidency.” With all the petro-state’s resources at his command, the gift of the gab and the power to force the broadcast media to carry his long-winded speeches live, he is a formidable opponent. But if the polls are to be believed, this election will be no walkover, even assuming Mr Chávez quickly returns to health.

The president himself has pointed to polls from a government-linked outfit, GIS XXI, which gave him 51% support. That is impressive after 12 years in office, but is well short of the dominance he enjoyed going into previous elections. Less sympathetic analysts have noted that three-fifths or more of the electorate think he should step down in 2012. One survey found that the leading contender for the opposition candidacy—Henrique Capriles, the youthful governor of Miranda state, which includes much of greater Caracas—could beat him in a head-to-head contest.

The playing field, though, will not be level. In addition to his blatant use of state resources for his campaign, Mr Chávez enjoys a stranglehold over the electoral authority. Many state employees believe the government knows how they vote, a concern that will only grow if a proposal to equip electronic ballot machines with fingerprinting devices is approved. There is good reason to fear reprisals for supporting the opposition: in the years following a 2003 signature-collection drive that required Mr Chávez to face a recall election, many public employees who signed the petition were fired, or denied loans or official documents such as passports.

The government has also harassed potential opposition candidates. In 2004 Mr Capriles spent four months in detention for entering the Cuban embassy during an attempted coup against Mr Chávez in 2002. The case still hangs over him. Leopoldo López, who leads the Popular Will party, has been banned from standing because of flimsy corruption charges, and Manuel Rosales, who ran against Mr Chávez in 2006 and faces similar charges, is in exile. Antonio Ledezma, the mayor of Caracas and another declared candidate, has been stripped of nearly all of his powers and seen his budget slashed.

The president’s latest ploy to undermine his rivals is the deployment of special central-government units with military-sounding names to some of the states most damaged by recent heavy rainfall. The squad sent to Miranda is led by Mr Jaua, who frequently calls the centrist Mr Capriles a “fascist”.

Perhaps the best indicator of the government’s nerves, however, is the extent to which Mr Chávez’s campaign promises have parted company with reality. After personally assuming responsibility for solving the country’s huge housing deficit, the president has pledged to build 2m homes in the next six years. That is roughly eight times the average rate over the last decade. “I’m staking my hide” on achieving it, Mr Chávez declared—or at least on voters believing it for long enough to re-elect him.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House