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16/11/2010 | US- Israel. Re-frozen?

The Economist Staff

WITH the wisdom of a man who has spent nearly two fruitless and frustrating years trying to make peace in the Middle East, Barack Obama praised Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu on Sunday November 14th for agreeing to a new deal on settlement-building even before Mr Netanyahu had got the deal past his own government.

 

“I think it is promising,” Mr Obama told reporters aboard Air Force One. “I commend Prime Minister Netanyahu for taking, I think, a very constructive step. It’s not easy for him to do, but I think it’s a signal that he is serious.”

But Mr Netanyahu has not taken this step, not yet anyway. He told his ministers that the agreement with America was not yet finalised and that when it was he would submit it to his inner or security cabinet. Cynics said even Bibi, famously tentative, would be hard put to backslide now that the president had publicly announced the accord. Even the cynics, though, are having a hard time explaining this latest twist in the tortuous peace process. 

Israel’s self-imposed (under American pressure) ten-month freeze on building in the West Bank settlements ran out in October, soon after long-stalled peace talks with the Palestinians had started again. Mr Netanyahu rejected appeals to prolong it, and Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian leader, promptly walked out of the talks to applause from the Arab world.

Under this new deal, Israel will agree to a 90-day re-freeze in return for a generous package of military and diplomatic goodies from America. These include an additional 20 F-35 stealth fighters, worth $3 billion, to be added at America's expense to the original 20 ordered by Israel. America has pledged, too, to stiffen its backing for Israel at the United Nations and to work for tougher international economic sanctions against Iran.

What happens on the 91st day? The Americans are committed not to seek another extension. They say that they hope that by then the two parties will have agreed on the borders of the future Palestinian state, so that further argument over the settlements will be unnecessary. 

But what if they haven’t agreed? Some super-cynics say the Obama team has been so inept in its dealings with Israel that it may have simply failed to take account of this wholly likely scenario. More probably, the Americans intend to propose that if Israel demands around 10% of the West Bank, and the Palestinians are ready to cede, say, 2% (in return for equal tracts of Israeli land), then settlement-building could be unfrozen in the 2% and the freeze continue in the rest, pending an eventual border agreement. 

Alternatively, Mr Obama may be planning to call a Camp David-type summit once it has been shown, over 90 days, that the Israelis and Palestinians cannot negotiate a border deal on their own.

Both scenarios make sense for Mr Obama. But they make sense for Mr Netanyahu only if he has genuinely decided to acquiesce in the creation of a viable Palestinian state and to engage in negotiations over relatively modest swaps of land. 

A member of his inner cabinet, Dan Meridor, says he ought to “aspire” to have the agreed border run along the security fence that Israel has built parallel to the pre-1967 border. That would mean annexing about 8% of the West Bank, including the large settlement blocks built up close to the border over the years. The Palestinians would balk at that as far too much, even if they got the equivalent acreage back, perhaps adjacent to the Gaza Strip.

But many of Mr Netanyahu’s ministers would recoil at such a deal too. It seems serious negotiations over borders could only take place if he were to reshuffle his coalition, dropping hardline parties like the foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu and bringing in the more moderate Kadima, under Tzipi Livni. There would likely be defections from his own Likud, too. Mr Lieberman would then become, as he has always fancied himself, leader of the ‘national camp’.

Where would that leave Mr Netanyahu? The last time Israeli politics went though an upheaval like that, after the withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, Ariel Sharon left Likud, founded Kadima, and effectively became the leader of the entire Israeli ‘peace camp’, eclipsing his old friend and political rival, Shimon Peres. It is hard to imagine Mr Netanyahu in that role. But then again, it was hard to imagine Mr Sharon in it, until he took it over and made it his own.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House