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23/07/2011 | Peru's new president: Promises and premonitions

The Economist Staff

Ollanta Humala has given strong signals that he will keep Peru’s successful economic policies. But the politics may be bumpy.

 

IN THE weeks between winning Peru’s presidential election in early June and taking office, which he will do on July 28th, Ollanta Humala has promised populist giveaways and policy moderation, travelled incessantly, and revealed some of the weaknesses that may well beset him over the next five years. He has also found that his honeymoon with Peruvian voters is over even before his term has begun. After five years in which it has been South America’s fastest-growing economy, Peru may be in for an uncertain ride.

Mr Humala, a former army officer who has never before held political office, narrowly beat Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of a jailed former president, in a run-off election. Having started the campaign as a populist leftist, Mr Humala moved to the centre, attracting support from Alejandro Toledo, a former president, and Mario Vargas Llosa, Peru’s liberal Nobel laureate. Over the past few weeks, the president-elect has stressed that he will maintain policies that have brought high economic growth and low inflation but work to spread the benefits more widely.

The clearest sign that he means this is embodied in his economic team, announced this week. Mr Humala named as his economy minister Luis Miguel Castilla, who was deputy minister in the outgoing government of Alan García and formerly worked at the World Bank. Another moderate, Salomon Lerner, will be prime minister. Mr Lerner, a businessman, was at Mr Humala’s side throughout the campaign. Julio Velarde, a liberal economist, is to remain as governor of the Central Bank for the next five years. His appointment was welcomed by investors: the Lima stockmarket index climbed by 4.6% the next day.

Leaders of Mr Humala’s Gana Perú (“Peru Wins”) political coalition were disappointed. Javier Diez Canseco, a congressman-elect, said that one of the economists who drew up the president-elect’s campaign platform, a leftist document, should have been named to run the Central Bank. By contrast, Mr Velarde opposes the platform’s proposal to raise the minimum wage by more than 20%. He supports a new law allowing private pension funds to invest 50% of their portfolio abroad, which Gana Perú leaders want to scrap.

That Mr Humala has waited until the last minute before naming his cabinet is testimony of these internal battles. His best option would be “to strike a balance between governing the economy with the right and social programs with the left”, says Luis Benavente, a political scientist at the University of Lima.

His choice of energy and mines and transport ministers will be especially closely watched. The new government is expected to introduce a windfall tax on mining profits. Maintaining the confidence of mining companies, who have plans to invest $42 billion over the next five years according to the mining ministry, will depend on the details of this. Investors will also worry if Mr Humala tries to unpick contracts under which private firms are upgrading ports, airports and roads.

Mr Humala has a strong incentive to govern from the centre. Gana Perú won only 47 of the 130 seats in Congress; for a majority, it will depend on Mr Toledo’s centrist party, which expects government jobs in return. Maintaining growth—the economy expanded by 8% in the first five months of the year—would also make it easier to finance expanded social provision for the third of Peruvians who remain poor, and to reduce social tensions.

Governing Peru is never easy. The ombudsman’s office registered 217 separate social conflicts in June. Almost half have involved violent incidents. Many relate in some way to foreign investment in mining and hydrocarbons, ostensibly at least. Some are in reality crude battles for local power. President García caved in last month to a violent campaign against a silver mine that is being developed in Puno, in the south, by Canada’s Bear Creek Mining. The company has appealed against the abrupt cancellation of its licence.

Mr Humala will also have his own political baggage to contend with. This starts with his loud and dysfunctional family. His father and one of his brothers are quasi-fascists. Another brother has helpfully compared Ollanta to Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi, saying he would like to stay in power for 40 years. But it was Alexis Humala, another sibling, who caused the new president’s first big headache, by visiting Russia this month, meeting the foreign minister and other top officials to discuss gas and fishing deals. Ollanta Humala claimed this was an unauthorised private jaunt; the Russian embassy quickly contradicted him, saying that Alexis went as a “special envoy” of the president-elect. This fiasco may be one reason why Mr Humala’s approval rating, which climbed to 70% after his victory, has plunged to 41%, according to Ipsos-Apoyo, a pollster.

The new president has little knowledge or experience of the world or of government, and has evident chips on his shoulder. On the other hand he appears to be conscious of his limitations, and is seeking advice far and wide. In this he bears some resemblance to Alberto Fujimori, who was elected president in 1990 with the support of the left but who then ruled as a conservative. On his travels, Mr Humala has stressed that he wants good relations with the United States, as well as with Brazil, Cuba and the rest of Latin America. Once installed in the presidential palace, he may find it much harder to continue to be all things to all men.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House