Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Thaksin made the announcement before the official results of Sunday's (2 April) elections had been published, when it became apparent that opposition protests would continue while he remained in office.

Implications

Attention has now turned to the problems of convening a new parliament, as Thaksin's successor cannot be chosen without one. Beyond this, the opposition remains suspicious of Thaksin's motives, calling for him to make a full exit from politics.

Outlook

Although Thaksin's decision to resign is expected to help defuse the political impasse, key problems remain that will require months of negotiation to produce a successful outcome.

Exit Thaksin

As Global Insight suggested, it was the quiet intervention of the king that helped to resolve this stand-off. The opposition had repeatedly called for Thaksin to step down and, following talks with King Bhumibol Adulyadej yesterday, the prime minister announced that he would go. Thaksin made little reference to the election other than to apologise to his supporters and said that he had decided to resign out of respect for the king. Thaksin used his 10-minute address on television to call on Thais to unite, announcing that he would step down once parliament agreed on his successor.

But Has He Really Gone?

In his public address Thaksin said that he 'wanted to retreat', which suggests that he may withdraw from political life. He has previously stated that he would only pursue two terms in office before leaving politics to return to his business interests. However, suspicions have been raised that he has no such plans, and Thaksin has already said that he intends to remain an MP and leader of the Thai Rak Thai (TRT). The opposition has subsequently argued that unless Thaksin leaves politics little is likely to change. Government policy would remain the same under his guidance and, as head of the ruling party, he could exercise continued large-scale authority, particularly if planned reforms to weaken the powers of the prime minister come to fruition. Furthermore, he has the option to pursue the post of prime minister again at the next election if the constitution is not altered. In the light of these circumstances, it appears that the opposition is aiming to force him from political life completely.

The Successors

To date, two names have been suggested as possible replacements to Thaksin: his trusted aide and outgoing Commerce Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, and his current deputy and former speaker of the house, Bhokin Balakula. Somkid has enjoyed a number of high-profile positions in the Thaksin administration, including those of finance minister and deputy prime minister. Like Thaksin, he is a highly successful businessman and is generally well regarded, domestically and internationally, for his handling of the economy. Similarly, Bhokin is seen as a strong candidate. He was praised for the handling of the government's response to the December 2004 tsunami and, given his background in law, it has been suggested that he would be an ideal candidate to oversee the proposed reforms to the constitution called for by the opposition.

Opposition Resurgent?

Essentially, a very weak opposition has won a key battle. Its aim was Thaksin's resignation and, buoyed by this success, it is now aiming for his complete removal from politics. The opposition has called an anti-Thaksin rally for Friday (7 April) and it will be interesting to see how much public support this receives. The impression is that a sense of apathy is setting in, with the residents of Bangkok seeking an end to the regular disruption of life in the capital. Thaksin may have been derided for his decision to call snap general elections, but equally the opposition should take some of the blame for the current political mess. It has bypassed the normal channels of democracy in a campaign that has created social tensions, exposing the division between the rural poor and the urban classes.

It is unclear what tactics the opposition will employ next. As a result of the main opposition parties' decision to boycott the elections, the seats have gone to the TRT. Almost 40 seats remain unfilled with by-elections pending. It is possible that the opposition will put forward candidates in these elections in the hope of securing some of the seats. Many are in the south, the traditional stronghold of the Democrat Party, giving it a good chance to sweep the board. If the opposition does not stand and by-elections are conducted, it is possible that no candidate will be returned again for the seats, which would prolong the period until parliament can be formed. The opposition has already stated that it would participate in elections if Thaksin stepped down and, as such, it is possibly pinning its hopes on another poll in the near future. Such a poll would clearly show how much support each party truly has, and the opposition will hope that its campaign has eroded the TRT's supremacy.

Outlook and Implications

Thaksin's decision to step down as prime minister should defuse much of the political tension witnessed in recent weeks. However, problems clearly remain. Firstly, all the remaining parliamentary seats need to be filled within a month to allow the new parliament to be formed. After this, attention will turn to constitutional reform. Thailand 's fledgling democracy is strong but, as this episode has highlighted, it has flaws and requires further development. There will be moves to reduce the powers of key figures like the prime minister and to introduce greater accountability into government. Thaksin's administration became associated with cronyism and therefore greater controls on the activities of government ministers, particularly in the business sphere, may be introduced.

If Thaksin remains as head of the TRT it will be interesting to see whether he can retain control of what is a factionalised party. If he does leave the political sphere, it would be similarly interesting to chart the TRT's fortunes. A split would not be out of the question, providing the opposition with an opportunity to challenge the TRT's position. Observers will also be watching to see whether the opposition can capitalise on its high-profile campaign. After several years on the defensive, its fortunes may be changing. Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva has proven to be a charismatic figure, something that the party has been lacking in recent years. If he can now follow through on this with a revitalised policy agenda, the party's standing may increase considerably.

Ultimately, this period of unrest may prove to be more fruitful than it appears, as there were real concerns that Thailand was heading towards becoming a one-party state. Although the past few weeks have highlighted that the country is perhaps not as politically stable and socially unified as it has often appeared, the changes produced by the unrest and other possible reforms bode well for a more balanced and transparent political sphere.

Contact: Raul Dary

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Tel: 781.301.9314
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Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinsight.com

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