Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Consulta Mitofsky represents something of an unofficial benchmark for opinion polls in Mexico. It records a more modest lead for Calderón of just 1% in front of one-time Mexico City mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO).

Implications

Electioneering began prematurely, with President Vicente Fox hamstrung in a hostile, obstructive Congress. Until the most recent round of surveys, AMLO had been at the vanguard since precipitate polls began, but support for Calderón appears to be growing.

Outlook

Recent polls are indicating a shift in support in favour of the National Action Party (PAN), but that could easily change in the remaining months. The second televised debate, in which AMLO will be taking part, becomes more important in this context, particularly given that he has ruled himself out of the final two.

Changing Fortunes in Mexican Competition

Felipe Calderón has secured 35% of support in the April poll by Mitofsky, which put him 1% ahead of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), the populist challenger from the For the Good of All alliance. AMLO's backing fell by 4%, the same amount by which support for Calderón increased. Roberto Madrazo came in with 27% for the Alliance for Mexico, which incorporates the once-monopolistic Institutional Revolution Party (PRI) and Mexican Green Party (PVEM). It was a 2-point reduction in his March performance. The two top politicians not only exchanged places in the Mitofsky survey, arguably the most respected of Mexico's consultation firms, but did so in three preceding polls as well. These included the Group of Economists and Associates (GEA-ISA), which gave Calderón a massive 10% advantage on AMLO, although the polling firm has a decidedly pro-business agenda that may colour its accuracy. Calderón came in with 41% against Madrazo, the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) member who is also standing for the leftist Worker Party (PT) and Convergencia. Madrazo scraped by with 25%, although the national presence of his party means that he cannot be ruled out entirely. A poll by respected centre-rightist newspaper Reforma also put Calderón ahead with 40% against AMLO.

Last month's surveys suggested a dead heat between AMLO and Calderón. Falling support for AMLO first came on the back of negative campaigning by the National Action Party (PAN), which associated the controversial centre-leftist with Venezuela's revolutionary President Hugo Chávez in a televised spot . It was broadcast shortly after members of the governing party called for a probe into allegations that AMLO, the capital's former head of government, travelled to Venezuela for secret meetings with its radical president last year. The PAN labelled López Obrador a 'danger to Mexico' and associated his potential government with an economic crisis, which habitually dogged administrative change in the nation. AMLO himself appears to have played his own part in harming voter confidence. First, his colourful comments urging President Vicente Fox to keep out of the campaign process, as stipulated by Mexican law, were successfully condemned by the government as a means of silencing political discussion even though AMLO had the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) on his side. More significantly, AMLO's decision to snub the first televised debate between presidential candidates has proved critical. It gave ammunition to those claiming that the For the Good of All contender lacked the intellectual capacities to engage with Harvard University heavyweight Calderón. His empty space on the podium left some supporters feeling abandoned, despite AMLO's assertion that he was staying away to avoid a media circus. How he performs in the 6 June session will be crucial in determining whether he can stage a comeback from his own goal, aptly taking place during the first week of the football World Cup.

Outlook and Implications

President Fox's political project could still be saved by his former energy minister, who fled from office in May 2004 over an election-related dispute between the pair . Not long ago, it looked almost unthinkable for many observing the wild popularity of the left-leaning contender. Trends in Latin America, which is widely experiencing a shift towards the left, appeared to make a parallel victory in Mexico more probable. However, Mexico has always liked to stand out from the rest of the region.

Mexican politics are more competitive than ever, as voters prepare for their second-ever democratic elections. Rapidly changing fortunes mean that neither a Calderón nor an AMLO triumph can be taken for granted. Disillusionment with the Fox government and caustic campaigning threaten to deter a high voter turn-out, making the contest increasingly unpredictable. President Fox continues to disappoint, with security threats staying on the agenda, particularly for 'chilangos' or 'capitalitos', residents of the Mexican capital. Authorities deployed riot police to a suburb of the metropolitan area yesterday, as protests against an operation to remove informal sector workers turned violent. Eleven officers were taken hostage during clashes in the San Salvador Atenco suburb in the State of Mexico, in which a teenaged boy, Javier Cortes, lost his life . A rescue operation restored their freedom in the conflictive zone. The incident could have repercussions for AMLO's PRD, with Senator Diego Fernández de Cevallos asked to explain its relationship with the People's Front in Defence of the Earth, which reportedly took part in the Atenco protests. Meanwhile, President Fox's decision to veto a drug bill criticised by the United States served as a reminder of his reputation for weakness. The incumbent government's failure to progress reforms set the electorate on an early search for his replacement.

Raul Dary

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