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08/03/2005 | Bolivia: Chronicle of a Presidential Resignation

WMRC Staff

Since late December, President Mesa has faced growing demonstrations of popular discontent countrywide. Once again, energy issues are the flashpoint. Protests were ignited by the December 20 price hikes for gasoline and diesel fuels; domestic natural gas and kerosene prices were left unchanged as a compensatory measure. Bolivia's powerful transport workers' union went on a 24-hour strike in early January, and the waves of protest swelled over the following weeks. Demonstrations have become especially intense in the central Santa Cruz Province, one of the country's wealthiest regions, where protests against higher fuel prices have turned into calls for autonomy.

 

The government faces mounting pressure from various groups to restore calm, but President Mesa has shown strong aversion to violence and is reluctant to use the military force. He has tried repeatedly to separate himself from former president Sanchez de Lozada, who did not hesitate to crush similar riots in October 2003 regardless of the human cost. Indeed, during a televised address to the nation on January 10, President Mesa threatened to resign for the first time if the upcoming strikes ended in any loss of life.

While strikes over fuel prices paralyzed the central city of Santa Cruz in early January, a new front opened in nearby El Alto, close to international airport in the capital, La Paz. There, hostility to foreign participation in public-utility provision was evident when inhabitants fiercely protested the Aguas del Illimani operation, run by a subsidiary of Suez Lyonnaise des Eaux. Protestors argued that the French company failed to provide the 100% coverage pledged in its contract with the Bolivian government, so its authorization to operate the utility should be rescinded. Acceding to their demands, President Mesa cancelled the company's license to supply water. Although this concession momentarily restored the peace to the region, it also revealed the administration's weakness—thus inviting more protests weeks later.

As the protests carried into late January, Mesa agreed to reduce the hike in diesel prices announced in December, but this only spurred demands for the total elimination of the price hikes. The president also agreed to hold democratic elections for provincial leaders, who had been appointed by the president. In addition, Popular Participation Minister Roberto Barbery quit in an attempt to quell the Santa Cruz protestors' demands.

After a respite in February, the approaching final debate over the new hydrocarbons law in Congress in early March ignited new rounds of disruptions. In response, President Mesa announced his resignation in a March 6 television broadcast. He submitted it to Congress the next day, leaving the legislature to decide his fate.

Two events apparently triggered his announcement. First, Evo Morales, the leader of the Movimietno al Socialismo (MAS) party, announced new highway blockades in Cochabamba Province, demanding that pending hydrocarbons law include 50% in royalties for Bolivia. Second, Abel Mamani, leader of the Federacion de Juntas Vecinales de El Alto (FEJUVE), called for another public demonstration in El Alto the following day to force the expulsion of Suez Lyonnaise des Eaux.

Minutes after President Mesa announced his resignation, many Bolivians arrived at the presidential palace to show their support for the current administration, while similar demonstrations occurred around the country. Moreover, other Latin American democracies have already voiced their support for President Mesa and his administration.

Although a change in president would most likely follow constitutional procedures, it will do nothing to address the country's increasing lawlessness and the inability to form any governing consensus. In addition, the latest municipal elections in December 2004 showed that Bolivia's political map has changed dramatically. After independents were allowed to participate in these elections, 327 organizations and 58 indigenous groups registered candidates for the near-300 mayoral posts to be filled—and traditional parties received less than 10% of votes.

On the other hand, if his resignation is rejected, President Mesa will need to act fast and use this political momentum to create the required alliances that would allow him to govern until the next presidential elections in June 2007. This outcome is the most likely to occur—and the one that we foresee. Political groups have been discussing the necessary conditions for President Mesa to remain in his post, including the creation of a pacto social that will deliver agreements on economic and political issues among political parties, unions, and social organizations.

WMRC (Reino Unido)

 


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