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06/01/2006 | Israel: Israeli Premier in Deep Coma; Election Focus Shifts to Post-Sharon Assessments

WMRC Staff

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon lay in a coma last night with no change in his condition, after suffering a massive brain haemorrhage; political allies predict that the premier would be unable to assume his leadership role were he to survive the hospitalisation.

 

Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Doctors predict another 48 hours of sedation before a clear assessment can be made as to Sharon's medical condition. Although doctors have indicated that the haemorrhage is not irreversible, there is little to suggest that Sharon will make a political comeback following his stroke.

Implications

In the premier's absence, campaigning for the March 2006 parliamentary polls has been temporarily suspended, although all indications suggest that the ballot will proceed as scheduled. Probably having lost the political heavyweight with which so many Israelis easily identified, Sharon's Kadima party is expected to make a rearguard effort to maintain the premier's political legacy.

Outlook

Sharon's legacy will no doubt be difficult to replace, given the premier's overwhelming domination of the Israeli political and military landscape for a number of decades. Although Sharon's chances of winning a third straight election now appear remote, his political protégés, most notably acting prime minister Ehud Olmert, have been tasked with shaping a path for peace that Israel and the Palestinians have been desperately battling to achieve; the post-Sharon challenges will prove formidable.

Sharon and Beyond

The premier's hospitalisation has inevitably drawn considerable international comment and concern, given the implications on the Israeli political system and the Middle East peace process of a potential worsening of his health. Although Israeli opinion has been largely supportive of Sharon's predicament - barring extreme right-wing settler sentiment against Sharon for pulling Israel out of the occupied Gaza Strip - Palestinian and Arab feelings have been less favourable. Foremost on Arab minds is Sharon's role in the massacre of Palestinians in Lebanon in 1982; judging by the opinion of Gaza and West Bank Palestinians yesterday, this mood remains an unforgiving one. However, Palestinian leaders including President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Ahmed Qorei adopted more pragmatic postures, suggesting instead that Sharon's health was important for future regional peace.

Sharon's condition last night remained unchanged, with the premier having been placed on a life-support machine after undergoing an operation to stem bleeding to his brain. Reports this morning suggest that Sharon is undergoing a new brain scan, although it remains unclear how long the process will last. Dr Shlomo Mor-Yosef, the director of Jerusalem's Hadassah hospital, offered the following assessment earlier today: 'There has been no change during the night. All the vital signs that we measure - blood pressure, intra-cranial pressure - all the vital signs have been stable, within the normal levels and this is positive'. The top operating surgeon, Felix Umansky, suggested that it could be a week before doctors could assess whether the premier had suffered any permanent damage, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reports.

Amid concern over the premier's condition, close allies of Sharon acknowledged that he would most probably not return to office. Transport Minister Meir Sheetrit and Ronni Bar-On, the parliamentary head of the Kadima party, reflected that Sharon was indeed 'fighting for his life'. Former Labour Party members who left to join Sharon's centrist alliance similarly accepted that his political career may finally be over. 'I pray that he will recover, but it seems to me that he will not be able to exercise his functions as prime minister any time soon or perhaps ever', Haim Ramon declared.

The Elections and Peace Process

Late last year, Sharon began what many commentators described as a political earthquake when he announced his decision to leave the Likud party and set up the new Kadima alliance (see Israel: 21 November 2005: Israeli Premier Calls for Parliament's Dissolution, Expected to Form New Centrist Party). Having been described as a one-man show, Kadima has essentially thrived on the back of Sharon's personal authority. The strong former general and revamped statesman was largely trusted to lead Israel through tumultuous times with the Palestinians. All predictions were that Sharon would return to power in less than three months' time, with such a victory marked by promises of greater security for Israelis and long-lasting peace - however protracted - with Palestinians. However, those forecasts have now been turned on their heads.

The more crucial question with respect to Kadima now appears to be whether the party can survive in Sharon's absence. In short, it can - providing that it can maintain the unity that Sharon's leadership enabled. Olmert may not necessarily be the most popular man in Israel, as this morning's Jerusalem Post has argued, but the former mayor of Jerusalem certainly has the political clout to drive through Sharon-inspired policies. For Kadima to succeed, a continuity with Sharon's powerful style must be maintained. Olmert's close association with Sharon and his willingness - eventually - to relinquish parts of the occupied West Bank offers such a prospect. However, the lack of any military training may tarnish his security credentials. The main alternative candidate remains former Labour leader Shimon Peres; his difficulties remain his left-wing credentials, which will not necessarily be looked upon favourably by Kadima's ex-Likud contingency, and his inability to win a single previous Israeli election.

Sharon's illness also endangers Palestinian elections later this month, which inevitably rely on Israeli goodwill to proceed. A resolution over whether Palestinians living in East Jerusalem will be permitted to vote is pending, although both U.S. and Palestinian officials are confident that the polls will go ahead. The White House yesterday urged that uncertainty over Sharon's illness should not prevent Palestinians from voting. Meanwhile, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was upbeat: 'What happens to Sharon affects Israel first of all and has repercussions for the region but will not lead to a delay in the Palestinian elections'.

Questions have also been raised over whether the U.S. administration will continue its high-profile role in the peace process should Sharon no longer remain at the Israeli helm. In the absence of Sharon, U.S. officials remain concerned over not finding an alternative powerful Israeli partner in the peace process, one who can push through deals with the Palestinians. Despite Olmert's closeness to Sharon, U.S. officials have not necessarily developed any close rapport with the acting premier. More importantly, it remains unclear whether Olmert has the clout to take difficult decisions in order to kick-start negotiations with the Palestinians. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told reporters that Israeli society would prove the best determinant of how smoothly peace will progress: 'I do believe that the desire for peace, the desire for a stable relationship between the Israelis and the Palestinians, is one that runs wide and deep in Israeli society.'

Outlook and Implications

With a political and military history that spans the entire history of the state of Israel, Sharon will leave a somewhat intimidating legacy for any potential successor. The premier's political passing may indeed herald an end of an impressive, although controversial, era. The short-term future poses significant challenges, for Israeli society and no less for the Palestinians. Sharon's belated about-turn with respect to the Gaza pullout was less to do with his belief in precipitating the establishment of a Palestinian state, and more with preserving Israel's Jewish demography. The premier was also contemplating similar and further small-scale West Bank pullouts following the forthcoming polls. He will in all likelihood have little role to play in the March election, but his successors will be hard pressed to convince Israelis to relinquish further territory, particularly if they cannot match his powerful militarist credentials. Fortunately or unfortunately for Israel, there is only one Sharon.


Contact: Raul Dary

24 Hartwell Ave.
Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tel: 781.301.9314
Cel: 857.222.0556
Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinsight.com

www.globalinsight.com and www.wmrc.com

WMRC (Reino Unido)

 


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