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28/03/2006 | Israel: Election 2006: Crucial Election Set to Redraw Israel's Political Boundaries

WMRC Staff

Barring a last-minute shock, Israel's newly established centrist Kadima alliance is expected to end the decades-long Labour-Likud political duopoly in today's general election, with repercussions for both the domestic political system and future relations with the Palestinians.

 

Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Kadima may have been formed barely four months ago, but Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, trading heavily on the legacy of hospitalised premier Ariel Sharon, is projected to win a convincing victory. However, an overall majority will prove elusive given Israel's infamous voting system.

Implications

Despite a plethora of social and economic concerns that confront Israel, the election has unsurprisingly focused more on security challenges. Although Labour has vowed to address the state's burgeoning social disparities, the right-wing Likud party has sharpened its attack against Kadima's so-called 'disengagement' from the Palestinian territories - a policy that Likud has described as one that rewards 'Palestinian terror'.

Outlook

The buzzword in today's election is 'unilateralism': Kadima under Olmert (and Sharon) has staked Israel's future on a separation from the Palestinians, one not necessarily based on negotiation. After decades of bitter regional conflict, a victory for Kadima is expected to usher in a process of redrawing and finalising Israel's hitherto undetermined geographical borders - a process likely to alarm Palestinians and raise international concerns.

The Sharon Factor

For the first time in Israel's 58-year history, the country's electorate will be offered the possibility of ending its reliance on a two-party political system and voting in a relatively new alliance whose foundations are inextricably linked with the one man whose claims to Israeli political and military 'heroism' do, for many, stand out: Ariel Sharon. Today's election would perhaps be a 'no contest' were Sharon leading Kadima (or any other party for that matter). In January this year - less than two months after unleashing what was popularly described as a political earthquake by the November 2005 formation of Kadima - a stroke put Sharon into a coma and led to his political heirs grappling over how best to maintain his legacy. Given Olmert's less-than-charismatic persona, he has not shied away from capitalising on his mentor's popularity with promises to continue Sharon's policies. Foremost on that front is the realisation that Israel cannot maintain its stranglehold over the Palestinian territories, and that a reorganisation of Israel's borders may well be in order. According to Olmert, the influence of Sharon will continue to guide Israel and the Kadima alliance. Speaking at his final cabinet meeting on Sunday (26 March), the acting premier said: 'Even as we are on the threshold of new elections and the subsequent formation of a new government, there is no doubt that the spirit and path of [Sharon] will continue to be an important component in the public and diplomatic affairs of the state of Israel for years to come'.

Following Olmert's assumption of the political mantle following Sharon's stoke, his untested premiership credentials were initially expected to sound the death-knell for a party that trades heavily on Sharon's leadership. However, 12 weeks later, not only has Kadima maintained a significant lead over its main political rivals, but Olmert is projected to be named Israel's new prime minister with a convincing mandate to carry through some highly contentious policies. Opinion polls on the eve of the election estimated between 36 to 40 seats in the 120-member parliament for Kadima, followed at a distance by Labour with 20 seats and the former-ruling Likud with around 15 seats (see Israel: 27 March 2006: Election 2006: Centrist Party on Course for Israeli Election Victory). Should the projections prove correct, the result would mark the remarkable rise of both Kadima and its stand-in leader. 

'Unilateralism'

Despite the crucial issues at hand, the gravest concern among politicians is the level of apathy that has gripped Israeli voters ahead of today's ballot. Around 22% of the 5 million-strong electorate is believed to be undecided or not eager to vote at all. The statistic is alarming, given the decisions that the new parliament and government will be called on to make. All the political heavyweights have called for voters to 'exercise their democratic rights'. President Moshe Katsav used a radio address this morning to emphasise the importance of today's election: 'These elections are among the most important in the history of our state'. This point cannot be underestimated. Although a number of domestic and international issues are at stake, the crucial domestic dynamic is where Israel is headed in its conflict with the Palestinians. With a Hamas-dominated Palestinian government expected to be approved later today, talk of 'disengagement' or even a 'clean break' from the Palestinian territories is top of the election agenda.

West Bank Separation and Security: Sharon set in motion a policy of 'disengagement' from occupied Palestinian territory that not only riled his former right-wing supporters, but demonstrated to Israelis that a break from the Palestinians was perfectly possible. Although the former premier was less open about any future pullouts, Olmert has staked his future on establishing Israel's borders by 2010. This will inevitably involve further pullouts from the West Bank, a move the acting premier has publicly endorsed. Having been accused of unilaterally setting the course of Israel's borders, Olmert reiterated this morning that a Kadima government would retain hold of the major Jewish settlement blocs in the West Bank, but dismantle all settlements situated outside of Israel's controversial barrier in the territory. 'We must preserve the main settlement blocs in [the West Bank] and we will fix the route of the security barrier beyond which we will no longer remain', he wrote in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper. More alarmingly - from a Palestinian perspective at least - and a concern picked up on by the Labour opposition, is Kadima's insistence on talking to the U.S. administration about the new borders, but not to the Palestinians. 'We want to set the permanent borders of Israel and to do so we must separate from the Palestinians', he said recently. Olmert's officials have claimed that Israelis no longer want peace with Palestinians, just separation. Should Kadima win, therefore, further unilateral withdrawals and strategies are a likely prospect.

Kadima's ability to set the political agenda has impacted heavily on Likud's electoral prospects. The party's tough-talking, smart-suited leader, Binyamin Netanyahu, initiated a campaign against Kadima's 'weakness' in the face of Palestinian and principally Hamas 'terror', but Likud's electoral momentum appears to have hit a wall. Its 'Strong in the Face of Hamas' slogan was quickly abandoned and the party's focus has once more shifted to Israel's security concerns in the wake of Hamas's political resurgence. According to Likud officials, the party's fortunes appear somewhat off-balance. Barring a large-scale attack in Israel, Likud is headed towards political oblivion. Not only is the party on the verge of being pushed into fourth position, but Netanyahu's leadership may also be coming under increasing pressure. 

The only real alternative to unilateralism is being offered by a somewhat rejuvenated Labour party. Amir Peretz, the recently elected party leader, has vowed to resume negotiations with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. 'In contrast to Olmert, we do not intend to waive the negotiations stage', Peretz said recently. 'A unilateral step on the West Bank will not achieve international support, since there won't be a return to the 1967 borders and the world will view it as an attempt to set boundaries unilaterally.' Given that there has been a palpable change in the Israeli mood over the prospects for peace and also a realisation that 'Greater Israel' is no longer a valid option, Labour's bilateral approach may not break any new ground.

 

Social and Economic Malaise: The Labour party has long championed itself as the defender of Israel's poor and deprived classes, and the election of a former union boss as leader was meant to spur the party's drive towards social and economic equality. With one-fifth of Israel's population living below the poverty line, Israel's economic malaise was expected to feature prominently in the election campaign. Despite Peretz's best efforts, Labour has failed to elevate economic issues to the top of the electoral agenda. Israel's preoccupation with security and concerns over its relationship with the Palestinians have once more pushed the major domestic social issues to the sidelines. The new Israeli government will face strong popular resentment should economic policy fail to lift a fair proportion of its citizens out of desperate living conditions.

 

Outlook and Implications

Judging by the lack of time and space devoted to anything other than Israel's security concerns, today's election marks the beginning of a new political reality - one that offers a new alternative to the future shape of the Israeli state. Questions over the extent to which Israel can hold on to occupied Palestinian territories and face off a determined Palestinian resistance have long existed, but solutions thus far have been conspicuously absent. Under Sharon, an unclear path was being cut with Israel contemplating what became known as 'disengagement' from the Palestinians. In a bold and no less contentious move, Olmert has finally taken the policy to its ultimate end and vowed to separate the Israeli state from Palestinian land even without the latter's consent. The faster that Israel can detach itself from Palestinian unrest, the safer Israeli society will feel, so the logic goes. The difficulty with such a solution is that it is likely to breed further anger among Palestinians.

Palestinian Prime Minister-designate Ismail Haniya warned yesterday against Israeli unilateralism. He claimed that such a stance would establish Palestinian 'cantons' in the West Bank. Imprisoning Palestinians behind a barrier may provide a temporary reprieve for Israel. However, longer-term stability is dependent on mutual cooperation and respect. Despite predictions of a convincing Kadima victory, the party is not expected to win an overall majority. Given Israel's history of coalition governments, the next-best prospect would be for a unity administration including Labour. Negotiations with a Hamas-led Palestinian government may prove impossible in the immediate term. However, with prodding from Labour, Palestinian-Israeli negotiations must resume in the future for both sides to finally realise the stability that the conflict desperately demands. Unilateralism may offer short-term benefits, but not a permanent solution. 

Contact: Raul Dary

24 Hartwell Ave.
Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tel: 781.301.9314
Cel: 857.222.0556
Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinsight.com

www.globalinsight.com and www.wmrc.com

WMRC (Reino Unido)

 


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