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08/08/2005 | Vote Abroad Adds New Dimension to Mexico's 2006 Election

WMRC Staff

Mexican migrants, the majority working in the US, are set to win the right to vote in absentia after Mexico's Congress voted overwhelmingly in favour of the bill that brings a new dimension to next year's presidential vote.

 

Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Expatriates are poised to win the right to vote from outside Mexico for the first time in history.

Implications

Restricted access to suffrage and minimal information on the profiles of potential voters make determining the effect of the extended franchise difficult to predict.

Outlook

The formerly authoritarian credentials of the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) make it the party least likely to benefit from external votes, while the ruling National Action Party (PAN) is set to garner additional support given its pro-business stance and President Vicente Fox's ongoing efforts to lobby his US opposite George W. Bush for better conditions for Mexican migrant communities.

Democracy for the Diaspora

Legislators resoundingly backed a bill to grant suffrage to Mexican citizens living abroad yesterday. A full session of Congress, composed of senators and deputies, approved the draft legislation by a massive 455 majority, with six refusing to support the initiative. It is left only for President Vicente Fox to sign the bill into law, which he is expected to do imminently, given that it was proposed by the head of state himself. In February, the Lower House approved the legal project, with only five lawmakers voting against it . Until now, Mexican citizens living outside the country had to return home for election day if they wanted to maintain their franchise.

Opposition parties backed the ruling PAN project, which was introduced under pressure from the powerful lobby of Mexican citizens residing in the US. Their numbers are estimated at around 10 million, making it an increasingly influential group for both the US and Mexican governments, given that many hold dual citizenship. Mexicans are an important component of the 'Latin vote' that has had a bearing on recent US election results. Meanwhile, the once-monopolistic PRI, which ruled Mexico for over 70 years, and the smaller leftist Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) will join the PAN in attempting to increase media exposure in the US as campaigning creeps north in advance of the 2006 vote. Postal voting will come under particular scrutiny in light of the relatively recent history of electoral fraud that has delayed and undermined the process of democratisation in Mexico. Using the US absentee system as a model should help to minimise pitfalls, but problems with Mexico's notoriously unreliable postal system should be anticipated. 

Democratic Delays and Developments

Mexico's first democratically elected president is yet to complete his mandate, and significant frustration with the political model has been recorded since 2000. To a certain extent, disillusionment was inevitable, since expectations were overly high when President Fox took office. Promised economic reforms have been slow to progress because of the PAN's marginal position in the national Congress and the PRI's continued domination of the body and national politics in general. Yesterday, President Fox enjoyed the unusual backing of the PRI in his bid to reform the fiscal regime governing the state petroleum company Pemex. The reform is intended to reduce the tax burden on the state enterprise in order to free up more resources for investment in the hydrocarbons sector. Pemex has been an important source of revenue for the government, with taxes currently representing around 60% of the oil company's total revenues providing around one third of the federal government's budget. Nevertheless, Pemex's heavy tax burden has over the years prevented the company from posting a net profit and reduced the amount of income available for reinvestment in the sector, forcing the company to increase its debt in order to fund its aggressive exploration and production (E&P) expansion plan. Fears of an increased tax burden and measures undermining the country's open-market economic model are among the reasons for pro-business groups opposing the alternative offered by leftist PRD figure Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), the wildly popular Mexico City mayor who remains the presidential frontrunner.

Persistent poverty levels in southern states such as Chiapas and Guerrero fuelled the Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN) uprising in January 1994 that overshadowed the inauguration of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Numerous studies since then have indicated the failure of free-market economics to produce sufficient trickle-down growth, encouraging support for leftist candidates such as AMLO and left-leaning leaders around Latin America. In this context, this week's Zapatista announcement suggesting its intention to enter formal politics was warmly received. Earlier this month, EZLN leader Subcomandante Marcos raised international concerns by placing his supporters on 'red alert', engendering fears of future attacks . These have since been assuaged, since an EZLN press communiqué pledged that the group would 'undertake a new national and international political initiative'. Since the uprising over a decade ago, the EZLN has largely converted itself into a pressure group rather than an armed insurgent body. Bringing such groups within legitimate national politics is a sign of democratic strengthening in Mexico, despite ongoing strains to the system. Mexican government officials have welcomed the move, promising that there would be no legal barriers to incorporating the one-time rebel group into mainstream politics.

Outlook and Implications

Extending Mexican suffrage to its overseas citizens will have a bearing on next year's vote. Its effect will be limited by restricted access, since only members of the Mexican diaspora who are already registered to vote will be allowed to take part without travelling home to sign up. Mexican officials estimate that around four million citizens will be eligible. Overseas ballots must be posted by the deadline (soon to be defined), and citizens will not be permitted to vote in person at consulates or embassies. Votes will be counted on the same day as domestic ballots, 2 July 2006. 

Although polls have not been carried out in the US, historical and cultural factors give some indications of expected effects. President Fox was widely believed to have benefited from Mexican citizens returning home to vote in the 2000 in the first free and fair election in the country's history. Mexicans who have emigrated to the US are traditionally supporters of democratic principles, meaning that the PRI is the least likely to benefit from votes abroad. The PRI's reputation remains tarnished in such circles as the architect of Mexico's formerly authoritarian administrations and the facade of democratic governance maintained by election rigging. The revival of the traditionalist wing of the party (the dinosaurs or dinosaurios) under Roberto Madrazo, the probable presidential candidate for the party, means that migrant groups would be even less inclined to go back to the PRI. President Fox's PAN is well-placed to benefit from the external vote, given his party's pro-business credentials and its efforts to lobby for an amnesty for Mexican immigrants working illegally in the US. Likewise, ongoing efforts to shore up security along the shared border should begin to work in the president's favour. 

The appeal of AMLO is more difficult to predict. His populist stance may well attract the support of lower income groups, and he has certainly won political capital by overcoming an apparent witch-hunt to remove him from the presidential race . Support for AMLO supersedes that of his party, which remains a marginal political force in Mexico. The national heavyweight PRI is poised to claim victory in Sunday's election in the State of Mexico, which borders the Federal District (DF) of the capital, Mexico City. The election will demonstrate once again the PRI's formidable powerbase in the state (known as 'Edomex') that boasted a population of 14,030,000 in the 2003 census. In this context, AMLO's path to Los Pinos, Mexico's presidential palace, is not guaranteed, although he remains the most popular candidate. Granting the vote to Mexican expatriates introduces a new level of uncertainty, with the profile of second-generation citizens and more recent, partly illegal immigrants difficult to formulate.

WMRC (Reino Unido)

 


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Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House