Global Insight Perspective

Significance

President Mahmoud Abbas presided over the swearing-in ceremony, but the messages emanating from the new Hamas-dominated Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) are anything but music to the ears of the president and the once-powerful Fatah party.

Implications

Not only did the new legislature approve a Hamas deputy as parliamentary speaker, but the movement's top political official in the Gaza Strip has also been named prime minister-designate. With Hamas assuming the reins of power under official presidential blessing, international opinion is divided over how best to adapt to the new Palestinian political reality.

Outlook

Ever since the huge Hamas electoral victory last month, Israel has threatened to boycott the new Palestinian Authority (PA) both politically and financially should Hamas enter any future administration. The Israeli cabinet yesterday approved sweeping economic sanctions and encouraged other international donors to do the same; Hamas has vowed to turn to Arab and Muslim nations to offset any economic shortfall.

Battle of Wills

President Mahmoud Abbas has inaugurated the new 132-member PLC with some fine words of praise for the Palestinian democratic process, but scratching away at the finely polished political surface are concerns over the relationship between Abbas and the election-winning Hamas movement. Barely a year ago, Abbas was elected president following the death of Yasser Arafat, amid grand regional and international aplomb over what was deemed a welcome opportunity for Palestinians to 'finally' strike a deal with Israel. Now that Hamas has stormed to electoral victory, that very same optimistic expectation appears to have been reversed and the Palestinian Authority (PA) now apparently faces an unprecedented crisis. While this latter argument is perhaps an extreme exaggeration, the Hamas ascendancy does pose significant questions for the PA's relationship with its neighbours and the international donor community.

No-one can question the Palestinian public's enthusiasm for democracy, even though many international observers have been riled by the electorate's faith in Hamas. That the once-powerful Fatah party was resolutely defeated on account of its corruption and incompetence appears not to have resonated well with outside observers. The criticism at present is focused squarely upon where Hamas will take the Palestinian masses - according to leaked plans, not very far, should the U.S. and Israeli administrations get their way (see Palestinian Authority: 14 February 2006: Arab League Pledges Support for Palestinian Hamas Movement).

The Hamas ascendancy has placed understandable pressure on Abbas, whose efforts towards peace with Israel have not only been scuppered by the latter's persistent refusal to negotiate with the outgoing PA, but are now thwarted by Hamas pronouncements that are noticeably against talks or contacts with Israel. Abbas therefore took the opportunity at the swearing-in reception to stamp a little presidential authority on future proceedings. Not only was there no military solution to the conflict with Israel, Abbas told deputies, but he would also expect the new government to respect all previous international agreements signed with Israel. Taken against statements coming from Hamas officials, Abbas may soon begin feeling rather isolated from his new government. Newly elected Palestinian parliamentary speaker Aziz Duweik summed up Hamas's political programme when he told MPs: 'We promise you to work to put an end to the [Israeli] occupation, to defend the just cause of our people and our right to legitimate defence and resistance to the occupation'.

However, by far the most conciliatory noises have emanated from none other than the Hamas candidate for prime minister. Given the status of Ismail Haniya - the movement's Gaza-based political leader - within Hamas, Abbas and the international community may in fact find room for pragmatic manoeuvre should Haniya be installed as the new premier. The former senior aide to Hamas's assassinated spiritual leader, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, Haniya resembles a new cadre of leadership that fails to accept a distinction between armed resistance on the one hand and governmental responsibility on the other. According to the Hamas political chief, the ultimate objective is to rid the Palestinian territories of Israeli occupation. Following the parliamentary inauguration, Haniya accepted that there were differences between the Hamas and Abbas political outlooks. 'We do have differences...Hamas has its own programme and political vision and we are going to resolve these differences with the president through dialogue', Haniya said. According to the Hamas hierarchy, the movement will weather the initial political storm over its ascension and will eventually force both domestic and international actors to deal with it; whether such confidence is realistic remains to be seen.

Facing Isolation

With 74 of the 132 seats in the PLC, Hamas certainly has considerable political weight to push through any number of policies. President Abbas has an effective veto to prevent any contentious legislation. This situation, considering the emerging internal conflict, indicates a degree of political impasse in the coming weeks and months. In addition, the Israeli cabinet passed a series of measures yesterday designed to end economic support for the PA. Should anyone be left in any doubt of how Israel will respond to a Hamas-led government, particularly during the current parliamentary election season, the Israeli government has also branded the PA a 'terrorist authority'. Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert endorsed a number of punitive measures following the PLC's inauguration, which include: 

• a freeze on monthly transfers of tax and customs duties owed to the PA, worth some US$50 million and which constitute around one-third of the Palestinian budget;
• urging the international community to 'discontinue all financial assistance to the [PA], not including humanitarian assistance provided directly to the Palestinian people';
• a ban on the transfer of equipment to the Palestinian security forces;
• restrictions on the movement of individuals belonging to or allied with Hamas, including MPs and other elected officials; and
• the tightening of security checks at crossings between Israel and the Gaza Strip.

The measures were denounced by PA officials as collective punishment against the Palestinian population. Abbas warned that the PA was facing a 'severe financial crisis' as a result of the Israeli sanctions. However, speaking to the BBC this morning, Haniya sought to dismiss the effects of the measures. He suggested instead that Hamas would appeal to the Arab and Islamic world to meet the economic shortfall, and that the Palestinians have 'lots of alternatives...We have other Arab and Islamic countries and members of the international community who are ready to stand next to the Palestinian people.' Arab League representatives are expected to meet in Algiers (Algeria) later today to consider granting the PA monthly aid to the tune of US$50 million, according to League officials.

Outlook and Implications

Hamas's elevation to the helm of Palestinian politics has not only transformed the political landscape of the Middle East (see Palestinian Authority: 27 January 2006: Election 2006: Shock Palestinian Victory for Hamas Alters Middle East Political Landscape). It also raises tough questions for the wider international community over how to relate to a movement long identified as a 'terrorist' entity, but whose rise follows a bold and ultimately successful electoral campaign. Hamas's present unwillingness to give up the gun may not make it any further international friends, but it is calculating on regional support to buttress its political rise. Although Arab governments will not take too easily to the Hamas agenda, popular opinion across the wider region is expected to cement the movement's political birth.

Although the Hamas leadership reveals little signs of buckling under growing pressure, there is little doubt that the movement will seek and desire broad international support. The first step towards fulfilling such intentions is the upcoming visit to Russia, which Hamas has signalled will help the movement boost its foreign credentials. In the absence of compromise, Hamas may find its political options are somewhat constrained. The movement's most immediate task will be to rid the PA of long-running corruption and to return the Palestinian territories, especially Gaza, to a modicum of security. Hamas will not be able to hide from its international obligations for too long, and relying on Arab support is not expected to provide more than a temporary reprieve. However, should the movement strike the right balance, its acceptance as a legitimate political entity may not prove too disconcerting.

Contact: Raul Dary

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raul.dary@globalinsight.com

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