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10/02/2006 | Lebanon: Protesters Out in Force in Lebanon on Shi'a Holy Day, Denounce Cartoons

WMRC Staff

The annual Ashura religious ceremony turned into a show of protest against the publication of recent images of the Prophet Muhammad, with Hizbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah telling his supporters that there can be 'no compromise before we get an apology'.

 

Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The parameters of the cartoon controversy have altered, with Hizbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah telling U.S. President George W. Bush and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to 'shut up' over remarks of Syrian and Iranian incitement of violence during last weekend's (4-5 February) torching of the Danish and Norwegian diplomatic missions in the Lebanese capital, Beirut.

Implications

This row, which is being played out to full effect in Lebanon, contains a potentially explosive combination of religious anger and pre-existing political grievances, and threatens to further widen Lebanon's sectarian divide.

Outlook

The divided loyalties of Lebanon's various communities are being exposed by the cartoon row, with Hizbollah supporters shifting the focus of anger from a purely religious dimension to a wider protest over Western efforts to redraw the Middle East's political landscape.

The Focus Shifts

The weekend outpouring of anger was not confined to the attack on the Danish embassy; it spilled over into Christian areas, with a Maronite church being damaged (see Middle East Regional: 6 February 2006: Danish Embassies in Syria, Lebanon Torched as Row Over Prophet Caricatures Turns Violent). As the scope and focus of the controversy altered, the ingredients for a internal Lebanese fall-out became more apparent, with Lebanese Christians publicly voicing their anxieties over a row that has been depicted by some as a 'clash' between Western secular freedoms and Islamic religious values.

These fears became more pronounced following yesterday's Ashura religious celebrations, with Sheikh Nasrallah denouncing American claims - voiced by Rice - that Syria and Iran have stoked religious tensions for political gains (see Syria: 9 February 2006: U.S. Secretary of State Accuses Syria of 'Inciting' Violence in Cartoon Row). A Lebanese political commentator who witnessed the weekend's unrest told Global Insight that this controversy constitutes a serious 'setback' to efforts at restoring a sense of political normalcy and redefining Lebanon's national identity, in light of the withdrawal of Syrian troops following the February 2005 assassination of former premier Rafiq Hariri. Certainly, Lebanon remains in political limbo as it struggles to regain its footing, attempting to reconcile pre-existing loyalties and entrenched interests within an altered domestic environment.

Hizbollah is certainly deeply uncomfortable at the strengthening relationship between Prime Minister Fuad Seniora and the U.S. administration. Shi'a politicians had suspended their participation in the cabinet, following an extension of the UN-led probe into the Hariri murder to cover the recent spate of high-profile political assassinations in Lebanon, the most recent of which was the killing of an-Nahar publishing chief and Beirut MP Gebran Tueni (see Lebanon: 12 December 2005: Bomb Blast Kills Lebanese MP and Media Mogul). The Shi'a lawmakers returned to their posts earlier this month, following assurances by Seniora that the future status of the armed group was a purely Lebanese matter to be resolved through internal channels (see Lebanon: 3 February 2006: Shi?a Parties End Lebanese Cabinet Boycott).

Outlook and Implications

The cartoon row has brought the structural weaknesses of the Lebanese state to the fore once more, underscoring the power of sectarian and religious leaders like Sheikh Nasrallah to mobilise their constituents in support of a common cause. Despite an official apology by the Lebanese government to the Danish authorities over the embassy attack, the central leadership seems unable to contain the outpouring of anger, which seems to have shifted focus from a religious dimension to a wider political dispute over the West's perceived encroachment into Arab regional affairs, and specifically Lebanese internal matters. Restraint is urgently needed into prevent this conflict from disturbing the country's fragile political balance and further deflecting attentions from much-needed administrative, security and economic reforms.

Contact: Raul Dary

24 Hartwell Ave.
Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tel: 781.301.9314
Cel: 857.222.0556
Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinsight.com

www.globalinsight.com and www.wmrc.com

WMRC (Reino Unido)

 


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