Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Unsurprisingly, the Stabilisation Pact designed to support the minority Law and Justice (PiS) government has all but failed, as the League of Polish Families has chosen to move into opposition; however, Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz and PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski disagree on whether the government needs to be dissolved.

Implications

At present, there is inadequate support for the dissolution of parliament, but one of the suspected motives behind Kaczynski's support of early elections could be ensuring that his grip on the party remains firm; his threats of early ballots or a formal coalition with fellow pact signatory, the smaller nationalist Self Defence (SO), may well be one more such strategy.

Outlook

The duration of the current term of government office is still in question, but Kaczynski's suggestion of end-May elections seems premature - if only logistically. There is a need for some sort of stable government to be created through a coalition or new elections, with little to show for the current parliament session, although a formal PiS coalition with smaller, spendthrift and eurosceptic parties would increase the risks to the economy.

Chances of an early election were still being hotly debated yesterday, as it became clear that the Stabilisation Pact, which had been designed to support the minority administration of the Law and Justice (PiS) party, was fast becoming a moribund deal. The two pact signatories, the League of Polish Families (LPR) and Samoobrona (Self Defence; SO) have criticised a PiS motion to dissolve parliament as contrary to their agreement and the main opposition, Civic Platform, has described PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski's plan to hold elections before a visit by Pope Benedict XVI at the end of May as 'absurd'. Roman Giertych, leader of the small LPR, has said the party will move into opposition and will not support the PiS nomination for the head of the new Anti-Corruption Bureau. 

More concerning for the PiS administration are the cracks which have developed in the relationship between Kaczynski and Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz ; Marcinkiewicz has said that he does not see dissolving the government as necessary, although he claims to support dissolving parliament and early elections. Marcinkewicz, appointed premier because Jaroslaw's brother Lech had won the presidential race for PiS, is arguing that the government is functioning well and is concerned that dissolving the government could lead to Jaroslaw deciding his leadership in government was needed. Although unlikely at present, Marcinkiewicz's resignation could trigger early ballots if the dissolution motion failed and if PiS were unable to secure agreement for his replacement. 

Jaroslaw is clearly the party strategist, and initially directed the party from behind the scenes in order to allay fears that the Kaczynski brothers were monopolising power. He has increasingly moved into the spotlight so as to ensure that PiS maintains its grip on power, with the early elections call being the latest strategy to strengthen PiS standing - as it is more than clear parliamentary support is lacking, the call is another way to lambast PO for failing to support PiS moves to 'strengthen democracy'.

Does the Pact Have a Future?

The Stabilisation Pact was designed to allow essential legislation to be passed by the minority government, but Kaczynski has argued that it is not functioning. This may be because the government has failed to carry out any significant attempt at legislative activity beyond the creation of new agencies in which it can place its own allies, or the replacement of other officials. LPR suggested yesterday that the government concentrate on policy issues; specifically, on lowering taxes and introducing more family-friendly policies as it had promised in its own election campaign. However, other distractions, such as the ongoing contested (Italy's) Unicredito merger of two Polish banks, have shifted the focus away from policy making. The villain of the banking affair, Central Bank Governor Leszek Balcerowicz, was a common target for the pact members to rally against, calling for him to be brought before a state tribunal for his oversight of the merger as head of the Banking Supervisory Commission (KNB). Additionally, SO and LPR have complained constantly that PiS have excluded them from pact discussions and decision making. This was probably PiS' intention all along, but they have found it hard to control the smaller parties - despite warnings this would be the case. 

SO do not support the idea of early ballots and believe that the PiS motion to dissolve parliament is tantamount to ending the pact. This is largely because SO leader Andrzej Lepper sees a role for himself as deputy prime minister and is keen not to let slip SO's chance of punching above its weight within the current government. He is correct to opine that a coalition would be more stable than the cabinet's - thus far - ineffectual activity; however, the policy outlook for a cabinet including SO would be markedly worse, as they would insist on additional spending measures and put off planned restructuring, which already seems a distant prospect. Kaczynski has discussed a coalition with SO as one alternative, which would probably also include inviting in another, smaller, fringe party - most likely the Polish Peasants' Party (PSL). Like SO and LPR, PSL favours avoiding early ballots since it believes its vote share might fall. However, leader Waldemar Pawlak has ruled out discussions for some weeks, until the current uncertainty has died down.

Outlook and Implications

A coalition with SO could leave Prime Minister Marcinkewicz as a casualty, with SO wanting Jaroslaw Kaczynski to take up the post instead as the real power broker in the party. Marcinkewicz can see the potential end to his leadership and, moving from deferring to Kaczynski to becoming more outspoken, he will likely be canvassing independently for support in the party behind the scenes. With Kaczynski already noting that a coalition is the 'only alternative', the PiS leader could use this demand as leverage to take on the post. However, he would probably baulk at the idea of SO leader Andrzej Lepper as his deputy prime minister without some kind of control mechanism and could be threatening a coalition with SO simply as a means of pressing PO into agreement on early elections. In a future coalition he could possibly allow the SO leader a symbolic post with no ministerial control. SO are also seeking to gain control of ministries with have access to EU funds. SO may very well demand the agricultural ministry and seek the regional development portfolio, although PiS would be unlikely to relinquish control over such massive budgetary flows.

Even with SO, deputy numbers are not enough for a parliamentary majority. At the moment, a triumvirate agreement would probably have to be formalised into a coalition, even if the pact were a basis for PiS ensuring its own longer-term control, since it could hardly keep threatening early elections each time one of the smaller parties failed to toe the line. PiS would have to do more relinquish its hold on power, despite efforts it has already made to place its allies in key posts. It might have to make concessions in terms of cabinet posts or otherwise. Despite the current quagmire, PiS is arguably in a stronger position than if it were negotiating fresh from the September elections and early elections are currently not adequately supported, meaning that a dissolution of parliament is not imminent. Paradoxically though, PiS cannot afford to delay formalising its grip on power, having created a rod for its own back.

Contact: Raul Dary

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