Opposition, but Not as We Know It

The Union budget in February should provide a clear indication of the constraints under which the Congress-led government is operating. Events during 2005 highlighted the impact that the leftist parties are having on economic reform, and ideological opposition to foreign involvement in the Indian economy is a cornerstone of these parties' methods. A number of key reforms have been unveiled and subsequently watered down, or simply disregarded, in the face of leftist opposition. Indeed, the four parties that constitute the Left Bloc have emerged in recent months as such vehement critics of these aspects of government policy, that some observers have described them as 'the new opposition'. 

Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see whether the 'real' opposition, the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), can revive its fortunes in 2006, having failed so far to settle on a workable policy platform. Attempts have been made to stir the vote bank with parliamentary protests over the imposition of value-added tax (VAT) in March and April 2005, as well as corruption allegations against Union Rail Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav and, latterly, former External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh, who has become embroiled in the UN Oil-for-Food scandal. However, the fact remains that the party is divided - not just between differing power bases (notably headed by former prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and his former deputy and soon-to-be-replaced opposition leader/party president LK Advani), but also between those who advocate that the BJP should pursue a more pluralist agenda and those who want to see it return to its Hindu nationalist roots.

Nonetheless, there are some indications that change is in the air. Advani steps down shortly, to be replaced by an individual from a younger generation of up-and-coming leaders, and it is possible that this will help to change the party's fortunes. Bolstered by November 2005's electoral victory in Bihar, during which the party seized control of the state from one of the government's key coalition allies, and its success in prompting the resignation of Natwar Singh, the BJP may finally find the cohesive voice that it has been searching for since losing 2004's general election.

A more workable opposition would have two key impacts on the Congress-led government:

• The leftist parties would probably work more closely with the ruling coalition. In the face of opposition from the BJP and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners, the Left Bloc tends to vote with the government. Whether this would extend to the economic reform agenda is debatable, but any opposition moves to block policy related to the Common Minimum Programme (CMP) would certainly meet with a unified front. 
• A snap general election would be less likely. There was speculation during 2005 that Singh would call an early general election to augment Congress's position (the next scheduled election is not due until 2009). It was argued that Congress would seek to take advantage of the BJP's current difficulties and the fact that the ruling coalition has pushed through some populist policies to increase its vote bank; the ruling coalition would thus become less dependent on the leftist parties, easing some of the pressure on the economic reform agenda.

The Bihar state election loss to the BJP has probably put this plan on hold for now, although a year of continued underperformance by that party - as well as the Left Bloc's ongoing opposition to government economic policy - would push the issue back up the agenda. This is all the more likely if, as expected, the government focuses its attentions on foreign policy during 2006.

Exit One Singh, Enter Another

It has been argued that the political demise of former External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh has come at a difficult time for the government, in light of upcoming events in the region. In some respects, however, his resignation has created opportunities for the administration. Although a long-time loyalist to the Gandhi family, Natwar Singh was regarded by some as being out of step with the Congress party's current foreign policy stance. He harks back to the school of thought that surrounded the old Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which was created by the country's first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru. The need to adhere to such a policy line has long passed, to be replaced by a new brand of geopolitics and an unprecedented level of engagement. Manmohan Singh is an advocate of this shift, and since he became prime minister he has proved himself to be an able and popular figure within the international community. He has swiftly established a good working relationship with both U.S. president George W. Bush and Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf that will be important in the coming year.

It is noteworthy that the prime minister has taken on Natwar Singh's vacant post, with no prospect of a reshuffle to alter this dynamic. How effectively Singh will be able to manage his dual roles is debatable, but given his significant involvement in foreign affairs during 2005, the balancing act looks to be workable. 

U.S. Relations

Bush's visit is expected to reap dividends in terms of the countries' strategic relationship, which has developed swiftly since it was formalised in January 2004. Large-scale agreements on the level witnessed in 2005 - notably the 10-year defence deal and the nuclear agreement signed in June and July respectively - are unlikely to be replicated in 2006; instead, Singh and Bush will focus on adding some flesh to the bones of existing policy initiatives.

Pakistan Relations

Similarly, there is much expectation surrounding the peace process with Pakistan, although India will probably remain keen to pursue confidence-building measures (CBMs) in lieu of committing to anything more substantial. However, Musharraf will continue his push for agreements. He is keen to capitalise on his reportedly good relationship with Singh, and wants to offer the electorate clear proof of progress ahead of presidential and general elections in 2007. Relations have been tested in recent months, and the October 2005 earthquake in northern Pakistan forced the two sides to face the prospect of having to work together, as part of the relief effort. Pakistan's initial calls for military helicopters were treated cautiously by India, which found itself in the difficult position of not wanting to lend its neighbour any of its military hardware. Pakistan faced a similar dilemma when India offered to assist in relief operations in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. In a positive development, these early tensions were subsequently overcome, albeit in a measured fashion, and by late November the two sides had agreed to open a number of crossings along the Line of Control (LoC, the de facto border in Kashmir), supporting relief efforts and allowing families divided between the two countries to reunite.

The Delhi bombings in October 2005 sent a shudder through bilateral ties; India resisted the instinctive urge to immediately blame Pakistan for the attacks, but as evidence emerged, authorities built a case to this effect. India has come to understand that this quieter, self-restrained approach reaps far greater international dividends, usually prompting the United States to exert fresh pressure on Pakistan to curtail the activities of its militant groups. Ultimately, however, Pakistan will want some recognition of this. Militants continue to provide a very real problem, but certainly not to the extent that has been witnessed previously. This may well become an issue during talks in 2006, the first round of which is scheduled for January.

Other Foreign Priorities

Elsewhere, India will continue to play a quiet but decisive role in seeking a resolution to Nepal's continuing problems, will come under pressure to play a greater part in influencing Sri Lanka's troubled peace process, and will be keen to see Islamic extremist violence contained - and, preferably, effectively countered - in Bangladesh. There will also be longer-term moves to strengthen relations with China and further develop long-standing partnerships with the likes of Russia. On the trading front, India will continue its attempts to develop greater involvement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as part of the country's 'Look East' policy.

In Conclusion

The year 2006 looks set to present a broad and, at times, testing agenda for the Indian government. It is hoped that the country will emerge stronger from 2006's experiences, rising to the challenges, instead of becoming mired in domestic upheaval and internal tensions.

Contact: Raul Dary

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