Global Insight  Perspective

Significance

Michelle Bachelet is not only the first female to win democratic elections in Chile, but she has also made history in Spanish-speaking South America. In Central America, both Nicaragua and Panama have elected female presidents, but Bachelet is the first south of the isthmus with the exception of former British colony Guyana, which elected former vice-president Janet Jagan as head of state in 1997.

Implications

Chile's democracy is one of the most mature in Latin America 16 years after its Augusto Pinochet dictatorship came to an end. Voters have now elected a fourth consecutive Concertación government. The incoming administration is taking on a healthy economy, but will need to avoid apathy to prevent the electorate from tiring with the same centre-left proposition.

Outlook

Bachelet enjoyed a comfortable victory, but the more moderate section of the opposition put up a respectable fight under Piñera, who has pledged to be a 'firm but constructive' opposition, possibly positioning himself for another challenge in four years' time; presidential terms were reduced from six years under the Ricardo Lagos government. Chile's political environment is stable and, despite her social-democratic sensibilities, Bachelet has pledged to leave the economic model intact, maintaining the country's position of welcoming foreign investment and providing a progressive regulatory framework for business.

Moderate-Leftist Leading Lady

Victory for an Unconventional Candidate
'I will be the president of all Chileans...Today we begin a new chapter in our history'
Chile's President -Elect	Michelle Bachelet has broken the mould in many ways. Not only is she the first elected female president of the conservative Southern Cone country, but she is also a single mother, a paediatrician and an agnostic. Chile has a reputation for social conservatism, and the Catholic church remains one of its strongest institutions. Divorce was only legalised under the outgoing Ricardo Lagos government. A victim of torture who lost her father to the Augusto Pinochet government, Michelle Bachelet shared the country's suffering during the dictatorship, but she also provides an example of emerging from its shadow.

Chile is set to inaugurate its first female president, one-time defence minister Michelle Bachelet, who fought off a strong challenge from formidable businessman Sebastián Piñera. The South American country selected its second consecutive Socialist Party president, demonstrating its satisfaction as much with outgoing President Ricardo Lagos as with his successor. Bachelet led polls from the start, which encouraged former foreign minister Soledad Alvear to relinquish her bid for the presidency in favour of her more popular former cabinet colleague in May last year (see Chile: 25 May 2005: Election 2005: Former Foreign Minister Bows Out and Boosts Bachelet's Bid to Become Chile's First Female President). Bachelet's campaign experienced some difficulties as National Renewal (RN) leader Piñera succeeded in garnering support from young and pro-business voters, which prevented the first-round victory for which she had hoped. Although a triumph for Bachelet remained the most probable scenario, the outcome was far from assured after she polled 45% of support in the first round, with the combined votes for rightist contenders - Piñera and Alliance for Chile (APC) colleague Joaquín Lavín - exceeding hers (see Chile: 12 December 2005: Election 2006: Female Candidate Leads Chilean Race, but Second Round Certain). Backing from the Communist Party, whose contender Tomás Hirsh polled over 5%, boosted her bid to enter the Palacio de la Moneda (Chile's presidential palace) (see Chile: 28 December 2005: Frontrunner Enjoys Communist Support in Chile's Run-Off). However, the outcome remained uncertain as ballot boxes opened yesterday.

The revival of the APC after the first round was not sufficient to counteract the momentum behind Bachelet's campaign. On the second polling day, the ruling coalition candidate celebrated victory in all but one of the 12 regions as well as triumphing in the most populous Metropolitan Region (RM) containing the capital, Santiago. Piñera won a majority only in the IX Region (Araucania), in the south of the country, which boasts Temuco as its departmental and industrial capital. Taking Lavín, the less moderate Independent Democratic Union (UDI) leader, on tour was intended to demonstrate a united front between the recently polarised elements of the APC. His presence aimed to encourage poorer voters who had supported Lavín to vote for the self-made billionaire in the second round. Piñera's wealth and far-reaching business interests, including private media entity Chilevisión, appear to have presented too great a barrier for Chilean voters, while others may have been put off by Lavín's hardline past as part of the authoritarian Augusto Pinochet government. Although Lavín this time gave his backing to the judicial process against the former dictator, whose repressive regime spanned 17 years (1973-90), his previous links are difficult to erode (see Chile: 25 November 2005: Second Arrest Warrant Issued Against Chilean Former Dictator). In contrast, Bachelet represents both continuity and change. Her close relationship with and former membership of the popular Lagos government reassured voters that her administration would build on its achievements. Electing a female head of state is an important step in Chile's democratic and social development, made even more potent by her background as a victim of torture during the dictatorship, which her Concertación coalition replaced in 1990 after the historic plebiscite that removed Pinochet. Granting her the right to lead the country for the next four years is another step towards helping Chile come to terms with its painful past.

Outlook and Implications

With Chile's judiciary progressing trials against its aged de facto former leader, its electorate has voted in a female politician whose father, Air Force General Alberto Bachelet, was tortured and died in prison six months after the Pinochet coup. The daughter of one of socialist former president Salvador Allende's collaborators, she and her mother suffered at the hands of the secret police. Her path to power has been unconventional, assisted by her sense of compassion and 'common touch', which ultimately differentiated her from Piñera's offering. Their policy platforms shared essential similarities and, despite her social policy priorities, she has pledged to leave the economic model intact. As under preceding Concertación governments, the investor community has little to fear from her leadership, as demonstrated by Santiago Stock Exchange President Yrarrázaval. Speaking to local Radio Cooperativa, he asserted that the national economy will continue to grow whoever won the national vote, asserting that Chile boasts 'a very solid economy, [that is] exemplary within Latin America'.

Chile's democratic deepening continues with the election of a female president. Bachelet is only the fourth woman to win a democratic presidential election in Latin America, following Nicaragua's Violeta Chamorro, Panama's Mireya Moscoso and Guyana's Janet Jagan. She is unique because she has not risen to power through powerful family or spousal connections. Female heads of governments (not heads of state) have been elected previously, such as in the Caribbean island of Dominica, where Eugenia Charles was the first elected premier (1980-95) after the country gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1978. Chile was one of the more tardy nations in granting the vote to women, doing so in 1949, two years before Bachelet was born. Her political stance is moderate and socialist only truly in name. Concerns of political radicalism, such as those facing neighbouring Bolivia under incipient President Evo Morales, should not dog Chile. Her mandate is almost as strong as that of Morales, but without the negative implications, although the latter's leadership is a landmark for indigenous representation. Also in her favour is a pledge from her defeated challenger to represent a 'constructive' opposition. The announcement of her cabinet team should confirm the president-elect's moderate stance while determining who will be charged with implementing some of her policy pledges, such as an overhaul of the pension system. She has asserted that no-one in Lagos's government will keep their post when the transition takes place in 52 days, but this does not mean that incumbent cabinet ministers will be denied a position under her administration. In the December vote, the Concertación gained control of both houses for the first time in its history. This promises an easy first few months for the new head of state, although she will need to make tangible progress during her first year in office with voters susceptible to becoming tired with the Concertación after 16 years in government.

Contact: Raul Dary

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