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25/12/2005 | Overview: Slow Progress on the Regional Reform Front

WMRC Staff

The year 2006 may not usher in any spectacular political upheavals in the Middle East, but the slow and protracted march towards democracy will continue to pose significant challenges to the legitimacy of mainly monarchical and autocratic regimes. Demands for greater political liberalisation - whether externally driven, or, now increasingly, domestically shaped - are expected to intensify, although the prospects for groundbreaking political transformation remain inherently weak. This is not to suggest that the seeds of democracy will not blossom across the region. Traditionally associated with war and volatility, Iraq and the Palestinian territories will prove the litmus test for the gradual spread of region-wide representative governance.

 

Once more, Iraq will continue to dominate the region's political and security agenda. However, unlike previous years, a greater and deeper level of optimism can be proffered, depending on the success of the country's December 2005 legislative elections. For a nation wracked by violence and on the precipice of sectarian war, a truly balanced permanent national parliament incorporating the disparate interests and anxieties of Iraq's powerful ethnic communities would present the ideal beginning for a post-transitional political resurgence, and enhance the prospects for future peace and stability. Furthermore, cross-sectarian political representation would cut the supply of support for a lethal insurgency, one that feeds off marginalisation and dispossession. Political stability would also have a positive impact on the security situation and enable Iraq's leaders to push forward on the issue of the foreign military presence, which is likely to be gradually reduced over the coming year. Perfection may not be attainable, but the small tentative steps under way currently signal improvements for Iraq's long-term sustainability. 

The political momentum generated by Israel's first withdrawal from occupied Palestinian territories in mid-2005, the achievements of which were steadily eroding by the year-end, will come into sharp focus in 2006 as both Palestinians and Israelis prepare for key parliamentary polls. The so-called 'Islamist challenge' will feature prominently on the Palestinian Authority (PA)'s election calendar, with the unprecedented participation of the Hamas movement in the national political process. Israel's very own legislative exercise, which pits the newly established centrist Kadima alliance of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon against a resurgent Labour Party and crisis-strewn Likud in mid-2006, will lay the foundations for further Israeli territorial compromises with the PA. However, depending on the results, Israel's Gaza Strip pullout may simply entrench the 'Gaza first, Gaza last' suspicions of Palestinians. 

The Islamist challenge is also proving infectious across the wider region, with Egypt in particular enthralled by spectacular parliamentary gains by the outlawed yet popular Muslim Brotherhood (MB) movement. The MB's trans-national appeal, given the movement's spawning of innumerable Islamic movements across the Middle East, may reignite tensions between ruling regimes and religious political forces, with the latter threatening the survival of the former. Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak has long held up the threat of the spread of 'Islamism' to counter Western demands for political reform, but the Egyptian electorate appears to have expressed its confidence in the MB. The grassroots strength of the movement can only be expected to spread as 2006 progresses. On a not-too-dissimilar religious scale - albeit from a uniquely Shi'a Muslim perspective - Iran's government, under arch-conservative president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, will push forward with measures designed to revitalise the country's Islamic revolutionary zeal. Given Iran's regional influence and status as the world's second-largest oil producer, engagement with the Iranian administration will acquire added urgency. However, international concerns over Iran's nuclear programme and the country's alleged covert development of atomic weapons suggest a prolongation of Iran's pariah status. Splits within the international community over how best to respond to Iranian intransigence signify little hope for an end to the political deadlock.  

Trends in the Wider Region

The February 2005 killing of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri significantly raised the security and political stakes for both Syria and Lebanon, casting fresh concerns about the stability of both countries in 2006. Hariri's assassination crystallised anti-Syrian sentiments in Lebanon, prompting the withdrawal of Syria's troops and ending its historic presence. Lebanon's May 2005 parliamentary elections were seen as a chance to redraw the political landscape in a post-Syrian era. Yet traditional alliance and sectarian loyalties did not crumble as easily as some had hoped, enabling pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud to remain in office by the year-end. However, it will become increasingly difficult for Lahoud to cling on to power in 2006, especially if the coming year witnesses a continuation of the high-profile political killings that occurred in 2005.

The targeted killings of prominent anti-Syrian lawmakers and journalists, most of whom are Lebanese Christians, is intended to rekindle underlying sectarian anxieties and disrupt the fragile political balance currently in place. This disruptive political potential was already apparent when members of the Hizbollah-Amal coalition 'suspended' their participation in the Lebanese government, following calls by Prime Minister Fuad Seniora for the creation of an international body tasked with investigating the murders of MP Gebran Tueni and others. Their decision was prompted by anger at what they see as the 'internationalisation' of Lebanese affairs - a development that is contrary to Hizbollah's future interests, in light of the international community's commitment to the disarmament of the group, stipulated within UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1559. Unless these internal tensions are adequately resolved, Lebanon's democratic potential will not be realised. The struggle over future stability and security will continue in 2006, in what promises to be a decisive year for Lebanon. 

The robust regional and international reaction against Syria will lose none of its momentum in 2006, as the UN-led Hariri murder inquiry continues at full pace. The interim report on the death, published in October 2005 under the chairmanship of German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis, found probable cause to suspect high-level Syrian involvement. The investigative team also complained that Syrian officials were stonewalling the probe. Despite the damage being inflicted on Syria by the inquiry, the ruling Ba'athist regime will continue to limp on in 2006; it is unlikely that we will witness an 'implosion' in the short-to-medium term.  The survival of the regime is not currently at stake, given that domestic opposition remains deeply fragmented and many Syrians see the Ba'ath Party as a 'better of two evils' (when compared to the Islamist option). In the international arena, supporters of Syrian regime change are confined to the fringes. The current insecurity in Iraq also stands as a powerful deterrent to such an option. The likes of Russia and China (which have veto power in the UNSC, as well as their own interests in Syria) oppose sanctions, let alone any sort of military option.

In contrast to the rapid pace of action in the Levant, gradual reform will be the order of the day in Saudi Arabia and the smaller Gulf monarchies. King Abdullah's formal arrival as Saudi monarch, and the kingdom's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2005, present an opportunity to accelerate the pace of reforms in 2006. However, in light of the king's advanced years, his reign may be relatively limited. This realisation may prompt him to introduce a series of reforms that are in part designed to distinguish his political and economic legacy. However, should King Abdullah decide to display a more reformist streak, he will encounter critics from within the royal family, and fuel the anger of Islamist groups on the grounds that he is cowing to U.S. demands for change. Despite these likely hurdles, we anticipate that King Abdullah will move forward with his reform programme in 2006, while at the same time remaining vigilant to the violent challenge posed by Islamist factions.

Meanwhile, efforts to achieve peace in Sudan's Darfur province will progress slowly in 2006. However, a potential stumbling block is Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir's scheduled accession to the African Union (AU) rotating presidency, replacing Nigeria's Olusegun Obasanjo. The cause of peace would be better served by extending Obasanjo's term as AU-mandated mediator, ensuring a continuity in the Union's efforts to forge a negotiated peace settlement for Darfur. The inevitable fallout that will accompany Bashir's presidency will deflect attentions from resolving the crisis, prolonging the cycle of insecurity, violence and poverty that has long ravaged Sudan's westernmost province. Also, as long as the AU mission remains ill-equipped and under-manned, especially in light of the recent spike in violence, improved security will continue to elude Darfur in 2006. Unless the international community bolsters the presence and capabilities of the AU mission and considers an expanded international input in Darfur, it will be all the more difficult to reverse the renewed violence and lawlessness in the coming year. Additional obstacles to peace are the fractures and internal divisions within the two main Darfur rebel groups, making it all the more important for them to forge a united front in 2006.

Contact: Raul Dary

24 Hartwell Ave.
Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tel: 781.301.9314
Cel: 857.222.0556
Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinsight.com

www.globalinsight.com and www.wmrc.com

 

WMRC (Reino Unido)

 



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