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23/03/2005 | US Backlash Could Postpone Lifting of EU Arms Embargo on China Until 2006 - or Later

WMRC Staff

An unexpectedly strong level of US protest over the European Union's plans to scrap its ban on weapons exports to China could prevent the embargo from being lifted later this year, as had been planned.

 

Significance China's passage of an anti-secession law earlier this month has provided convenient cover for some European countries to reconsider their position, in light of stronger-than-expected opposition from the US.

Implications While a delay in lifting the embargo would be a symbolic snub to China, pressing ahead as planned would considerably upset the US. As a result, the European focus will now be on damage control and an effort to gently manage relations with both Washington and Beijing.

Outlook US objections to European arms sales to China are based on concerns about continued Chinese rights abuses, military modernisation and threats against Taiwan. As long as these conditions remain, the administration of President George W Bush will continue to object to the sale of offensive weaponry to the mainland, regardless of whether the curbs are lifted in 2005 or 2006.

Hitting the Brakes

The steady momentum towards the European Union's (EU) removal of its self-imposed arms embargo on China has hit a succession of speed bumps in recent weeks, culminating today in media reports suggesting that the original plans have been placed on hold. Unnamed EU officials are now reportedly saying that it is unlikely the embargo will be lifted by the end of June, as had been expected. An EU spokesperson told the Agence France-Presse (AFP) news agency, 'The timeline is more complex now, but the willingness to move forward has not changed'.

On the surface, China's passage of an anti-secession law (ASL) aimed at curbing pro-independence sentiment in Taiwan has been blamed for undermining the EU's plans. After meeting Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said, for example, that the ASL had added 'complicated atmospherics' to the debate. Similarly, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw told reporters that the Chinese legislation had 'created quite a difficult political environment'. However, it is believed that the EU's real reasons for delaying its move are rather different. 

The anti-secession law has certainly added to the volatile mix of tensions between China, the US and Europe, but the real change has been the increasing US pressure on European diplomats to reconsider their plans. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice pointedly expressed her hope that China's passage of the law 'would at least remind the Europeans that there are still serious security issues in this region, and indeed in the cross-Straits, in particular'. More than anything, the rising potential for a conflict that could embroil the US - and possibly even Japan - has refocused American criticism of EU claims that the lifting of the embargo would not 'lead to an increase in arms [sales to China], quantitatively or qualitatively'.

Outlook and Implications

The US-EU disagreement over the weapons ban clearly takes root in a far more fundamental disagreement over how best to deal with China's rising power. The US - fearful of getting embroiled in a cross-Strait conflict - is concerned by the mainland's escalating military expenditure and threats to Taiwan, while the EU believes that embracing China will help to convince Beijing that its best interests lie in co-operation rather than conflict. This suggests that regardless of precisely when the ban is lifted, both Japan and the US will be incensed at what they perceive as Europe's indifference to regional security, and US strategists in particular will question the EU's motives, on the basis that lifting the ban could imperil the lives of US service personnel based in east Asia. 

Short Term: The steadily mounting tensions across the Taiwan Strait are obviously of immediate concern. Amid fears over the possibility that China may launch a military invasion of Taiwan in the coming years, the US does not want to see the military balance tipped decidedly in the mainland's favour, as that could increase the likelihood of an attack. 

Longer Term: Over the medium-to-long term, US objections are based on the fact that European weapon systems are more technologically advanced than either those being produced domestically in China, or those that China is purchasing from Russia . Unlike the EU, the US does have strategic interests and key allies in the Asia-Pacific region (Japan, Australia, South Korea, and Taiwan, to name a few), and the prospect of facing down advanced European-built hardware in any regional military standoff is therefore an alarming one. Defense Department planners, who foresee China as being the US's strategic rival of the future, will remain extremely wary of any development that gives the slightest advantage to the Chinese military.

 

Raul Dary
24 Hartwell Ave.
Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tel: 781.301.9314
Cel: 857.222.0556
Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinsight.com

www.globalinsight.com and www.wmrc.com

WMRC (Reino Unido)

 


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