Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Former defence minister Michelle Bachelet can avoid a leadership contest within the Concertación coalition, allowing her to become Chile's first female president.

Implications

The rightist opposition Alliance for Chile (APC) is split, with two candidates for the December contest. Neither contender is in a position to secure enough votes to stop Bachelet's goal.

Outlook

Political necessity may force the APC parties to resolve their differences and support one contender. Chances are better against moderate rightist Sebastián Piñera as Chilean politics move towards the centre shunning those previously connected to the military regime (1973-1990). However, even if this occurs, Bachelet's bid appears unstoppable.

President Lagos's Leading Lady

Soledad Alvear has handed Socialist Party (PS) candidate Michelle Bachelet the best possible chance of winning this year's presidential contest by sacrificing her own bid to become the Concertación contender in favour of the more popular politician. Former defence minister Bachelet, who has been ahead of her former cabinet colleague from the start, can focus fully on leading a united campaign on behalf of the centre-left coalition. She is expected to stand unchallenged, leaving the primaries scheduled for 31 July 2005 defunct. Former foreign minister Alvear also came out in front of rightist challengers, but with a smaller lead than Bachelet. She was arguably in a stronger position to win the right to represent the Concertación, given the strength of her Christian Democrat (DC) party within the ruling alliance and the fact that the candidacy fell to a PS contender, incumbent president Ricardo Lagos, the last time. Her decision will win her widespread respect, boosting her position to fight a future battle and, even more importantly, presenting a united front against a divided rightist opposition.

The two parties comprising the APC are both fielding candidates for the December contest. National Renewal (RN) party chief Sebastián Piñera has refused to stand aside in favour of Joaquín Lavín, who heads both the Independent Democratic Union (UDI) and the APC itself. In previous contests, the RN has allowed Mr Lavín to stand unchallenged as the APC candidate. Its decision to present its own would-be president demonstrates both a change within the opposition coalition and a wider transformation of Chile's political climate. Measures to deepen democracy, combined with progress within the Chilean judiciary to bring former dictator Augusto Pinochet to justice, have been well received, as have efforts by successive Concertación governments to repay the social debt accrued during the authoritarian years (1973-1990) while leaving the essence of the economic model intact. Efforts by Lavín to distance himself from the Augusto Pinochet regime, by claiming that he would not have backed the dictator in the 1988 plebiscite if he had known of the human rights abuses it carried out, backfired due to their incredible nature. 

Outlook and Implications

The personal popularity of President Lagos, who boasts approval ratings of 60-70 percent, also appears to be rubbing off on Bachelet. She came from the same party and shares the same pragmatic socialist stance. As a result, neither foreign nor domestic businesses have much to fear regarding policy consistency. Reassuring businesses of her economic pragmatism will be an important part of her campaign, as will focusing on issues such as human rights. Bachelet's background as a former victim of torture during the military dictatorship also affords her a certain authenticity as she pledges to advance democratic-deepening initiatives launched by the Lagos administration.

Aware of the need to boost its democratic credentials, the rightist APC finally supported the passage of reforms to authoritarian elements of its constitution last week. In a parallel measure, APC lawmakers backed a bill to stamp royalty taxes on the country's crucial mining industry, a move that was immensely popular with the electorate. Companies in the sector accepted the new levy, having anticipated its introduction for several years. As Chilean politics move towards the centre, the opposition will have better prospects under Piñera, a moderate rightist businessman with a well-known background in philanthropic activities. Demonstrating his softer side, he joined Alvear in pledging to review Chile's mandatory military service if elected, following the tragic death of at least 26 conscripts during fierce snow storms that struck a training session last week. Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo offered his condolences as the two countries resolved their differences over Chilean arms sales to Ecuador in the early days of Peru's conflict with its Andean neighbour. Entering the contest relatively late in the day, Piñera is unlikely to erode Bachelet's lead enough to prevent her from becoming the first female president of the South American country.