Significance

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is in a strong position to win the right to stand for his Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) in Mexico's presidential election, having garnered additional backing as a result of his apparent persecution.

Implications

Support for the ruling National Action Party (PAN) was already dwindling due to its disappointing performance as Mexico's first democratically elected government. After the desafuero (impeachment) debacle it is in an even weaker position to fight next year's election.

Outlook

Ironically, AMLO has actually benefited from the alleged witch-hunt against him, gaining popularity and notoriety on a national level, where his party has traditionally lacked a powerbase. Mexican politics, however, remain much more competitive than in former years and the comeback of the once-monopolistic Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) means that AMLO will still have a fight on his hands and is unlikely to win by any great majority, restricting his room to manoeuvre in Congress.

Would-Be President Triumphs Over 'Persecution'

Mexico's new public prosecutor (PGR) Daniel Cabeza de Vaca has dropped charges against wildly popular leftist mayor to the capital Andrés Manuel López Obrador, that had threatened to bar him from next year's presidential race. The decision is set to diffuse political tensions in the Latin American country, which has been disrupted by a campaign of civil disobedience launched in solidarity with the populist leader, known locally as AMLO, after the federal Congress stripped him of his immunity from prosecution to allow a criminal investigation . National and international outrage had been provoked by the impeachment vote, which was perceived as the product of a witch-hunt coordinated by President Vicente Fox's National Action Party (PAN) and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which presided over Mexico's 70-year virtual one-party state, and aimed to remove the frontrunner from the presidential election.

Celebrating the decision to end criminal proceedings against him, AMLO reasserted his innocence after the public prosecutor fell short of exonerating the mayor of allegedly ignoring a judicial order prohibiting construction on a patch of private land in order to improve access to a hospital. In his typically populist style, AMLO embraced the verdict as 'a triumph of the people, of the majority of Mexicans', in an interview with local station Radio Formula yesterday. Sustained public demonstrations and international criticism of the government's handling of the case against the leftist leader undoubtedly encouraged President Fox to accept the resignation of much-maligned ex-attorney general Rafael Macedo, paving the way to a peaceful resolution of the crisis . Now the president is scheduled to meet his political nemesis AMLO tomorrow, focusing on other themes in the hope that the ugly incident can be laid to rest. 

Outlook and Implications

The ruling party and the president's reputation have been sorely damaged over what was labelled the 'persecution prosecution' against its most popular political opponent. Renewed allegations against the first lady Marta Sahagún de Fox, who is suing Argentine author Olga Wornat as a result, are afflicting further harm on the president's party. Attempting to save face and demonstrate the political independence of the PGR, PAN leader Alejandro Zapata asserted that his party maintained doubts over the attorney general's decision to abandon an investigation against AMLO, in statements to the local press. The fact is, however, that the turn of events provides at least circumstantial evidence that the federal government continues to hold influence over the criminal justice system. It also inadvertently validates AMLO's allegations that the entire case against him was the product of a political plot.

Free to fight for the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) candidacy, AMLO is expected to remain in office until July, when he will officially launch his presidential bid. A challenge from Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas has become less likely after the veteran PRD leader threw his weight behind the younger PRD politician, heading protests against his prosecution. Ironically, AMLO is in a much stronger position to secure victory in 2006 thanks to the desafuero affair that enabled him to cast himself as a martyr of the Latin American left. Even though his left-leaning party lacks national presence, AMLO has become a national figure who has symbolically taken on the state and come out on top. As Mexico anticipated the desafuero vote, the firebrand mayor to the capital had already begun to win renown away from his party's central heartland, scoring some 44% against PAN and PRI contenders' little over 25% a piece, in a recent survey .

Business observers are unlikely to welcome the renewed prospects of a leftist taking up residence in Los Pinos, fearing that he will convert himself into a Mexican Hugo Chavez on taking office. Venezuela and Mexico, however, do not share either the same history or political traditions. Mexican politics have become more competitive in recent years, meaning that even if AMLO is elected he is unlikely to boast a majority significant enough to make radical changes. More reassuringly, the leftist leader's tenure in the capital has thrown up evidence of political pragmatism. His capacity to work with Mexico's richest, and the world's fourth wealthiest individual, Carlos Slim, securing significant investment for the capital's neglected historic centre, is a case in point. In fact, prospects for pro-business reform could even improve under a pragmatic leftist who could realistically package them as a necessity for the country, rather than as part of an ideological project.