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31/12/2005 | Hong Kong SAR: Failure of Legislative Package Prompts Downturn in Support for Hong Kong's Chief Executive

WMRC Staff

Chief Executive Donald Tsang's personal approval ratings have hit their lowest level since he took office in June, with fewer than half of survey respondents indicating satisfaction with the performance of his government.

 

Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The pronounced downturn in popular support for Tsang can be directly linked to the recent controversy over the political reform package that he unsuccessfully attempted to pass into law. 

Implications

Strong public support for universal suffrage translates into weakening support for his administration, which is - fairly or unfairly - seen as an obstacle to full democracy in Hong Kong. 

Outlook

Tsang's approval numbers have been on a near-continuous slide for the past three months, but there is little he can do to reverse this without also risking his relationship with Beijing, which has been vocal in its support for him, despite his recent troubles. 

Tsang Feels the Sting... 

Last week's embarrassing failure by the Hong Kong government to secure a two-thirds legislative majority in support of its political reform package is thought to be responsible for the latest drop in Chief Executive Donald Tsang's approval ratings, which have hit their lowest levels since he was 'elected' to office in June. Although the poll was conducted before the legislative vote took place, the outcome was seen as a foregone conclusion, given the pro-democracy camp's pledge to reject the bill.

According to the Hong Kong University (HKU) tracking poll, survey respondents gave Tsang a score of 64.2 (out of 100) - down from 65.6 earlier this month, and well down on the feel-good 72.3 score that accompanied his official elevation to the chief executive's office earlier this year.

The recent round of gloomy personal numbers has been mirrored by the fall-off in support for his administration in general; satisfaction with the performance of the Hong Kong government fell from 57% in October to 51% in mid-November. According to the latest round of polling, fewer than one-half of respondents signalled satisfaction with local leaders. 

...of an Embarrassing Legislative Defeat

Legislators in Hong Kong last week rejected Tsang's key reform bill, despite late amendments designed to pacify the pro-democracy contingent (see Hong Kong: 20 December 2005: Chief Executive of Hong Kong Offers Deal, in Attempt to Push Through Reform Bill). Only 34 members of the Legislative Council (LegCo) supported the package of political reforms, falling well short of the two-thirds majority required to push through the legislation. Pro-democracy lawmakers had long promised to vote against the package, firing a major warning shot ahead of time with a large-scale democracy protest march on 4 December. That rally produced Hong Kong's largest public demonstration since July 2004, as up to 250,000 people took part in a march aimed at pressuring the government to introduce a timetable for universal suffrage in the territory. 

Outlook and Implications

Tsang's support ratings remain relatively high (especially when compared to those of his predecessor Tung Chee-hwa), but the ongoing political turmoil over the sequencing of democratic reforms has dented his otherwise positive image. His perceived good intentions conflict with his readily apparent deference to Chinese leaders, who remain dead set against a democratic Hong Kong, creating a situation in which he can only realistically satisfy one of those two constituencies. Earlier this week, Tsang travelled to Beijing, where he met with President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, who strongly hinted against a timetable for universal suffrage by supporting democratic developments only 'in a stable, healthy, and orderly manner'.

Looking forward, Tsang's future approval numbers will hinge on how effectively he can represent Hong Kong's interests in the face of opposition from his political masters in Beijing. As HKU poll director Robert Chung told reporters, 'Whether Tsang can satisfactorily handle society's conflicts after his first duty visit to Beijing would certainly affect his and the government's popularity in the near future'.

 

WMRC (Reino Unido)

 



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