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19/01/2006 | Global Insight Ranks U.S. Stock Market Sectors: Financial, Healthcare, & IT

WMRC Staff

Global Insight, the world's leading company for economic and financial analysis and forecasting, announced today (January 9)that the financial, healthcare, and information technology sectors hold the most promise for U.S. stock market investors in 2006.

 

The worst sectors for investing will be telecoms, basic materials, and consumer discretionary, according to Global Insight's latest stock sector rotation strategy advisory. Global Insight's sector rotation strategy, developed using the company's expert macroeconomic and industry analysis, is included in its Stock Sector Benchmarks, which assists asset managers in identifying the most profitable sectors for investment in the U.S. and international stock markets.

Among the 10 sectors that comprise the U.S. stock market, the financial sector has the best attributes currently for an overweight position, according to the Global Insight analysis. The sector's valuation is compelling, compared to other sectors and compared to historical experience. A good dividend and strong growth in profits and free cash flow, combined with the prospective end to Federal Reserve interest rate tightening policies in 2006, all contribute to the relative attraction of the financial sector.

By contrast, telecommunications, basic materials, and consumer discretionary sectors have relatively poor fundamental valuation parameters. The pattern of dividend payout in these sectors has lagged behind other sectors, and the prospect for earnings growth is much slower than is expected in other sectors. Returns from basic materials will be capped by the weaker commodity price trend over the next two-to-three years. Consumer spending is lagging, with business spending replacing it as a growth leader and lowering the prospect for earnings growth in the consumer discretionary sector, which is already overpriced relative to other sectors.

The Stock Sector Benchmarks was developed for asset managers under the direction of Mark Killion, CFA, managing director of Global Insight's World Industry Services (WIS). Global Insight's macroeconomic and industry analyses and forecasts are utilized to provide fundamental forward-looking metrics for security valuation-such as sector profits, dividends, and free cash flow-to calculate and rank the sectors that have the highest potential for total return. From this, the "optimal" portfolio is constructed with the sector over- and underweight positions set to maximize the total portfolio return.

"Based upon Global Insight's forecasts, we recommend investors take an "overweight" position in the financials, healthcare, and IT sectors relative to the S&P500 benchmark," stated Mark Killion. "The worst sectors for 2006 are telecoms, basic materials, and consumer discretionary," he added, "and these warrant an underweight position."

To see the full sector rankings and for further information visit: www.globalinsight.com/SectorRotation.

Contact:

Mark Killion, CFA, MD World Industry Service, Global Insight
610 490.2547 (mark.killion@globalinsight.com)

Natasha Muravytska, Economist, Global Insight
+ 610.490.2558 (natasha.muravytska@globalinsight.com)

Jim Dorsey, Media Relations, Global Insight
+781.301.9069 (jim.dorsey@globalinsight.com)

About Global Insight's WIS Stock Sector Benchmarks
Using Global Insight's World Industry Service (WIS), industry data have been classified into stock market sector "peer groups" under the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®), a standard stock market classification scheme. The outlook for each stock market sector is then developed, using macroeconomic and industry forecasts.. Tailored specifically for financial analysts, Stock Sector Benchmarks provides access to fundamental indicators of sector performance on a country, regional, and global basis. Stock Sector Benchmarks is ideal for use in asset allocation, security valuation, and sector rotation and risk management. Note: The Global Insight sector rotation strategy includes forecasts which are prepared on the basis of certain assumptions and hypotheses and are not a guarantee that the forecasts will, in fact, be achieved.

About Global Insight
Global Insight, Inc. (http://www.globalinsight.com/) is a privately held company that brought together the two most respected economic information companies in the world, DRI and WEFA. Global Insight provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making. Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political and operational factors. The company has over 3,800 clients in industry, finance and government with revenues in excess of $80 million, over 600 employees and 23 offices in 13 countries covering North and South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

Contact: Raul Dary

24 Hartwell Ave.
Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tel: 781.301.9314
Cel: 857.222.0556
Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinsight.com

http://www.globalinsight.com/ and http://www.wmrc.com/

WMRC (Reino Unido)

 



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