Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The high-profile battle between first lady Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her predecessor Hilda González de Duhalde, representing rival wings of the Peronist (Partido Justicialista - PJ), are symbolic of deep divisions in the powerful ruling party.

Implications

President Kirchner and his wife have accused his political nemeses Eduardo Duhalde and Carlos Menem of conducting a campaign to undermine the administration.

Outlook

The legislative elections represent the first electoral test for President Kirchner since taking office in 2003. He is expected to stand again in 2007 while Eduardo Duhalde is potentially lining up for another attempt at the presidency. The contest between the politician wives of the two men takes on greater significance in this context.

Colleagues or Competitors?

Campaigning for Argentina's legislative elections is under way, with rival elements of the ruling Peronist party challenging one another for key seats. President Kirchner has accused his predecessors Eduardo Duhalde and Carlos Menem of forging a pact against the incumbent administration. Rivalries between dominant political elements of the PJ are being played out via the competing campaigns of first lady Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and the former holder of that title Hilda González de Duhalde. Both women are seeking election to the Senate as representatives of the same Peronist party. At this stage, the first lady looks the most likely to win the right to return to the Senate, this time representing part of the Buenos Aires province, on behalf of the Front for Victory (FV), the president's branch of the PJ. She was first elected to the upper house in October 2001 when she stood in the Santa Cruz province. She won 40.8% of support in the latest poll carried out by local firm, Poliarquía Consultores, while González de Duhalde came a distant second with 13.2%. Voting regulations signify that Fernández de Kirchner and her running mate José Pampuro are set to take up senatorial seats while, according to current support levels, González de Duhalde is likely to fight off a challenge from Ricardo López Murphy of the 'Recreate' (Recrear) party to take the third post.

Kirchner and Menem have been political adversaries for several years. Carlos Menem stepped aside to allow his party rival to take up the presidency in April 2003, after polls predicted a landslide victory for Kirchner. Outstanding corruption cases against the former leader provided an additional incentive to delay a comeback to the Casa Rosada, Argentina's equivalent of the US's White House. With such cases apparently on the point of collapse, Menem is seeking election to the Senate, allegedly attempting to harm his nemesis along the way. Fernández de Kirchner last week accused her rival's husband, ex-president Duhalde, and former head of state Menem of establishing a 'destabilisation pact' against the government. Meanwhile, President Kirchner has accused the two politicians, naming Menem's provincial ally Luis Patti of the Federalist Unity Party (PAUFE) as the third member of the said pact he claimed is trying to 'return [Argentina] to the past'. Veiled allegations against political opponents include the assumption they are inciting the piqueteros, Argentina's radicalised poor and unemployed protesters. The Kirchner administration receives regular criticism of failing to halt such incidents of civil disobedience, which cause regular disruption in the capital, Buenos Aires, and sometimes beyond. Answering critics through action, on 25 August authorities arrested 15 piqueteros, while seven were injured during confrontations with the federal police. 

Outlook and Implications

Piquetero protests intensified in the month of August as constituent groups staged demonstrations in the Buenos Aires, Chaco, Córdoba, Entre Ríos, Jujuy, Misiones, Salta and Tucumán provinces. Demands from the diverse social movement, dating back to the economic crisis sparked by the December 2001 debt default, again centred on an increase in unemployment subsidies. Periodic, but inconsistent government crackdowns have failed to suppress the demonstrations that in turn provoke discontent among otherwise pro-Kirchner voters. Further symbolic crackdowns are likely before the 23 October vote but the policy of containment is set to be reinstated after the legislative election. As a left-leaning government, a hard-line response towards marginalised social groups would not be beneficial in the longer term, particularly as his popular approval ratings have been slipping recently. With President Kirchner probably poised to seek re-election in 2007, the October vote is something of a trial run. It is the first time that Argentine voters have been able to give their verdict on the incumbent government since it took office in 2003. With Eduardo Duhalde potentially lining up for a comeback in 2007, the stand-off between their wives-cum-politicians takes on a different level of significance. The outcome in the federal capital, consisting of the city of Buenos Aires and immediate surrounding area, is difficult to call, with polls pegging Rafael Bielsa (Kirchner's first foreign affairs minister), Republican Mauricio Macri and Elisa Carrió, the leftist leader of The Argentines for a Republic of Equals (ARI), on almost equal points. Overall results will give preliminary indications of the power of President Kirchner's popularity, particularly if he is able to buck the trend of voters at district level selecting the same party as the serving governor.

Raul Dary 24 Hartwell Ave.
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