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01/04/2007 | CrisisWatch N°44, 1 April 2007

International Crisis Group Staff

Nine actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in March 2007, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today.

 

In Zimbabwe, President Robert Mugabe cracked down violently on the opposition – sparking sharp local and international criticism – and yet ended the month with his party’s endorsement as its candidate for the 2008 election. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, clashes between government forces and guards loyal to opposition leader Jean-Pierre Bemba killed hundreds, while in Nigeria, a political crisis deepened ahead of April elections. Conflict intensified in Somalia, where the capital Mogadishu saw some of the worst fighting in fifteen years, and in Sri Lanka, where the government opened a new front against Tamil separatists. Iran saw tensions spike after seizing 15 UK navy personnel it claimed had entered its waters. The situation also deteriorated in Guinea-Bissau, Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan.

Six situations showed improvement in March. A peace agreement was signed between ex-rebels and the transitional government in Côte d'Ivoire providing for power sharing for a period of transition. Positive steps were taken in Israel and the Occupied Territories with the formation of a Hamas-Fatah national unity government and decision by the Arab League to renew its commitment to the 2002 Arab peace initiative. In Northern Ireland, a power-sharing agreement was signed between the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein, paving the way for the resumption of devolved rule in Stormont. In Nepal, a government was formed that fully incorporates Maoists into the political mainstream for the first time. The situation also improved in Guinea and Mauritania.

For April 2007, CrisisWatch identifies Nigeria, Timor-Leste and Zimbabwe as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month.

MARCH 2007 TRENDS

Deteriorated SituationsDR Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe

Improved SituationsCôte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Israel/Occupied Territories, Mauritania, Nepal, Northern Ireland (UK)

Unchanged SituationsAfghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Cyprus, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji, Georgia, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iraq, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Macedonia, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen

APRIL 2007 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk AlertsNigeria, Timor-Leste, Zimbabwe

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

International Crisis Group (Organismo Internacional)

 

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