Warring parties in South Sudan’s civil war are preparing for major offensives as seasonal rains ease. Hardliners in both the government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) are entrenching their positions, and think, as one opposition commander declared, “we will settle this with war”.
Renewed
conflict is likely to be accompanied by widespread displacement, atrocity
crimes and famine. Despite some progress, nine months of peace talks in Addis
Ababa have been unable to stop the fighting. With splintering interests, weak
command and control and proliferating militias and self-defence forces, the
Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the regional body mediating
peace talks, must expand and strengthen its political links on the ground with
senior commanders, armed groups and militarised communities not represented in
Addis Ababa if a future agreement is to have meaning. The coming violence will
present new challenges for UNMISS as it prioritises protection of the nearly
100,000 civilians sheltering in their bases.
The
soon-to-end rainy season was accompanied by reduced fighting, which allowed
both sides to import arms and marshal forces that were hastily mobilised at the
outset of war in December. The government is emboldened, perceiving a
diplomatic swing in its favour, following Kiir’s July visit to Washington and
the August IGAD heads of state summit, giving it the space to launch a major
offensive while stalling in Addis Ababa. It has spent tens of millions of
dollars on arms - largely from oil revenues - (rather than humanitarian
assistance for its people); strengthened its military cooperation agreement
with Uganda; undertaken mass recruitment, including of children; and mobilised
police units in efforts to regain some of the strength it lost with the
defections of troops and loss of weapons to the SPLA-IO. However, major
government victories are unlikely to end the rebellion. Furthermore, given the
Ugandan army and Sudanese rebel deployments on its behalf, government advances
will likely threaten Sudan’s national security interests, increase regional
tensions and further inflame the conflict.
At
the same time, state and opposition-supported, ethnically-based armed groups,
such as the Nuer White Armies, have flourished and are only tenuously
controlled by their sponsors. Including the Ugandan army and Sudanese rebels
backing the government, there are now at least two dozen armed entities
operating in South Sudan. The fragile coalitions threaten to further fracture,
particularly in oil-producing Upper Nile State. Many of them, as well as some
powerful generals from both the government’s Sudanese People’s Liberation Army
(SPLA) and the SPLA-IO, have expressed their intention to fight on, even if the
political leaders sign an agreement.
Despite
these obstacles, the IGAD mediation team has focused on trying to broker a deal
between Kiir and Machar in Addis Ababa, ignoring other actors. As Crisis Group warned
in July, this lack of broad-scale engagement has led many commanders and
armed groups to reject the political process. Most of these parties have their
own interests. IGAD should work with the African Union High-Level Panel on
Sudan and South Sudan (AUHIP)(that is supporting the Sudanese dialogue
process), led by former South African president Thabo Mbeki, in order to secure
the withdrawal of the Sudanese armed groups as called for in the January
cessation of hostilities agreement and previous AU-mediated agreements.
Furthermore,
despite many threats, IGAD has not taken punitive measures against the two main
parties for violating cessation of hostility agreements, committing war crimes
and otherwise undermining the peace-talks, and nor has it requested the African
Union or UN Security Council to do so. Armed actors increasingly believe there
is little muscle behind the mediation, which is challenged by divisions within
the regional body. IGAD should continue the process with the two main parties,
but given the deteriorating situation on the ground, it must expand its efforts
and strengthen its links to other groups and militarised communities not
represented in Addis Ababa, through increased political presence on the ground
(not simply the Monitoring and Verification Teams observing the ill-implemented
cessation of hostility agreements).
Its
mediation should be supplemented by separate but linked negotiation tracks on
issues not being comprehensively discussed in Ethiopia, particularly the
Tanzanian-led SPLM party talks; a re-activated Political Parties Forum;
engagement with armed groups; and processes to address violent communal
conflict. Promising internal SPLM party talks have begun, sponsored by
Tanzania's ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM; in English Party of the Revolution),
however they have not yet changed the calculus for war on the ground. The Political
Parties Forum should be re-activated and the leader of the largest opposition
party, the SPLM-Democratic Change, should be permitted to travel from South
Sudan to re-join the talks. Much of the dialogue and work with community
representatives, armed groups and militarised communities should take place in
South Sudan, not in Addis Ababa.
China
and the U.S. should play a more active, neutral, consistent and transparent
role in ameliorating the regional divisions to help break the impasse. The two
should take a harder line with their allies within the region who continue to
enable the war and are party to cessations of hostilities violations. The
limited U.S. and EU individual sanctions, aimed at punishing a few commanders
on both sides that are seen to have broken the cessation of hostilities, have
thus far had little impact on the combatants’ calculations and individual IGAD,
AU or UNSC sanctions are similarly unlikely to turn the tide unless used as
leverage to further political negotiations.
In
light of the anticipated intensification of fighting, UNMISS’ mandate, due to
be renewed on 30 November, should continue to focus on civilian protection.
This is particularly true of protection of civilians already sheltering inside
UNMISS and, where possible, it should extend protection beyond bases. Hosting
nearly 100,000 civilians inside of its bases for an extended period is far from
ideal, however the mission must continue to provide protection until conditions
allow for their safe and voluntary exit from the bases. Civilians should not be
moved into less protected UN humanitarian sites or other specially-designated
sites where protection standards will not be the same as within a peacekeeping
base. Supporting further ethnic divisions by moving people to their “ancestral”
lands where famine and conflict are likely in the coming months is also not a
viable option.
Many
recommendations Crisis Group made in its December 2013, Open
Letter to the UN Secretary-General, its April report, A
Civil War by Any Other Name, and July conflict alert, Halting
South Sudan’s Civil War, remain relevant to averting further
escalation, improving the peace process and ensuring UNMISS has an appropriate
mandate and posture. To stop further intensification of the war, IGAD should
take the following steps:
- increase
its political presence on the ground in South Sudan, with a specific focus
on engagement with commanders and armed groups;
- start
dialogue with all armed groups and militarised communities;
- open
four separate negotiation tracks, both in Addis and South Sudan, sequenced
and pursued so as to contribute to the broader national political dialogue
and focused on: 1) the SPLM (supported by Tanzania’s CCM party); 2) a
re-activated Political Parties Forum; 3) armed groups; and 4) communal
conflict; and
- work
with the African Union High-Level Panel on Sudan and South Sudan (AUHIP)
to secure the withdrawal of the Sudanese armed groups as called for in the
January cessation of hostilities agreement and as well as previous
AU-mediated agreements between Sudan and South Sudan.
As
the conflict threatens to intensify once again, the United Nations Security
Council should take the following actions:
- institute
an arms embargo for South Sudan, which must then be carefully monitored to
prevent further escalation; identify the government's and opposition’s sources
of weapons and how they are paying for them; and increase leverage over
the parties;
- establish
a Contact Group that includes IGAD, the AU, UN, Troika (U.S., UK, Norway),
EU, China and Tanzania to facilitate coordination and discussion on the
way forward; and
- maintain
UNMISS’ core protection of civilians mandate, including allowing civilians
to shelter within UNMISS bases until they are able to make a safe and
voluntary exit.
Greater coordination between regional and international actors is
urgently needed to ensure the high-level peace talks better reflect the growing
number and power of increasingly autonomous armed groups in South Sudan as well
as the regional dynamics behind the war. A clear strategy for engagement with
armed groups and facility for linking local negotiations with a wider national
process will help prevent the civil war deepening and spreading further in
South Sudan and the region.
fecha |
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03/11/2011| |
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