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02/05/2006 | CrisisWatch N°33, 1 May 2006

International Crisis Group Staff

Thirteen conflict situations around the world deteriorated in April 2006, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch, released today. Tensions mounted over Iran’s nuclear program as Tehran defied the UN Security Council’s 28 April deadline to stop enriching uranium.

 

An increasingly bitter rivalry between Hamas and Fatah cast a shadow over the Occupied Territories, while violence between Israelis and Palestinians increased. In Afghanistan, a Taliban “spring offensive” saw increased suicide attacks and bombings in the south and east. A series of bomb attacks in the Sinai peninsula rocked Egypt, which was also shaken by sectarian clashes in Alexandria.

In Chad, rebels launched a major attack on the capital, N’Djamena, as the effects of the conflict in Darfur continued to spill over Sudan’s borders. A dramatic upsurge in violence in Sri Lanka prompted fears of a return to full-scale civil war. And a wave of separatist attacks in Kashmir marked the first major violence there since November 2005. The situation also deteriorated in Guinea, Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar/Burma, Pakistan, the Solomon Islands and Timor-Leste.

Two conflict situations showed improvement in April 2006. In Nepal, King Gyanendra agreed to restore parliament, dissolved in 2002, in the face of widespread demonstrations against his rule. In Guinea-Bissau, troops ended their offensive against Senegalese secessionists.

For May 2006, CrisisWatch identifies Nigeria, Somalia and Sri Lanka as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month. A Conflict Resolution Opportunity is identified in Nepal.

TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY

APRIL 2006 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations

Afghanistan, Chad, Egypt, Guinea, Iran, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir, Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar/Burma, Pakistan, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste

Improved Situations
Guinea-Bissau/Senegal, Nepal

Unchanged Situations

Albania, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, DR Congo, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji, Gambia, Georgia, Guyana, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Moldova, Montenegro, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Northern Ireland (UK), Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Somaliland (Somalia), Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand , Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

MAY 2006 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk Alerts
Nigeria, Somalia, Sri Lanka

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Nepal

* NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

International Crisis Group (Organismo Internacional)

 

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