MIDDLE EAST OBSERVERS WERE hardly surprised by yesterday’s news of the apparent assassination of Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri in Lebanon.
Not only
was al-Arouri a
senior Hamas official, but he also headed the militant
group’s contact team with Lebanese Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons. He was
likely at the top of Israel’s permanent assassination list even prior to Hamas’ bloody assault
on Israel last October 7. Yet, within the explosive content of the ongoing
Israel-Hamas war, Tuesday’s assassination signals the opening of a new and
highly unpredictable phase in an already uncertain conflict.
The vague statements issued by Israeli officials in
response to the news of al-Arouri’s assassination did little to dispel the
broadly accepted view that Israel’s intelligence services were behind the
killing. Headed by its external intelligence agency, the Mossad, Israel’s
intelligence services have a long history of extrajudicial assassinations. In
his seminal book Rise and Kill First, the Israeli investigative
journalist Ronen Bergman discusses in detail the history of these
assassinations, which predate the postwar establishment of the state of Israel.
Bergman’s data-rich research reveals that the Israeli intelligence services
have performed approximately 2,700 extrajudicial assassinations in their
history —more than any Western state.
Given such
a prolific history of targeted killings, al-Arouri’s assassination in Beirut
can be described as both expected and unremarkable. Indeed, Israeli officials
have stated repeatedly since October 7 that Hamas’ senior leadership will be
targeted worldwide. In a leaked recording that emerged last month, Ronen Bar, director of
the Israeli Security Agency, was heard announcing to members of Israel’s
Knesset that Hamas’ senior leadership would be targeted “in Gaza, in the West
Bank, in Lebanon, in Turkey, in Qatar, everywhere”.
At the time
the recorded conversation leaked, nobody thought that Bar, a seasoned
intelligence officer, was bluffing. Indeed, the operational capabilities and
reach of the Mossad are well understood by everyone in the Middle East. That
al-Arouri was assassinated in southern Beirut’s Dahiyeh suburb is significant.
An undisputed Hezbollah stronghold, Dahiyeh is tightly controlled by the Shiite
militant group, which prides itself on ensuring the safety of its residents. Yesterday’s
assassination at the very heart of Hezbollah’s lair was nothing short of a
demonstration of the Mossad’s competency in special operations.
If Israel
is truly intent on neutralizing the leadership of Hamas, Mossad’s competency
will be increasingly tested in the coming months, as the Jewish state will have
to strike repeatedly beyond its borders. This is because, unlike the
beleaguered Gazans, who are currently experiencing the most destructive bombing campaign of the 21st century,
most leaders of Hamas live in relative luxury in Doha, Ankara, Beirut,
Damascus, and other Middle Eastern metropolitan centers. It is there, and not
in the razed neighborhoods of Khan Yunis and Jabalia, that Israeli
assassination teams will need to operate with increasing dexterity.
Yet, even
when their attacks are successful in eliminating their intended targets, the
operational signatures left behind by the Mossad teams will inevitably expose
some of the agency’s tradecraft methods. They will also reveal the extent of
its reach, and in some cases even its networks. Tuesday’s attack, for instance,
revealed that Dahiyeh is not the fortified hideout it was believed to be. Other
Hamas operatives will now take heed. Moreover, the use of a drone to kill
al-Arouri has given Hamas and its allies an insight into one aspect of the
Mossad’s assassination methodology, from which they will now seek to develop
protections.
It should
be noted that on the same day al-Arouri was killed, authorities in Turkey announced the arrests of no fewer than 34
people who are alleged to have been involved “in spying and planning abductions
for Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency”. According to Turkish officials, 57
addresses were simultaneously raided in Istanbul and other Turkish cities,
while security forces were still searching for 12 more suspects as of yesterday
evening local time. This development is almost certainly an attempt by Turkey
to pre-empt Israel’s preparations to strike on Turkish soil. In reporting on
the arrests yesterday, the BBC reiterated a warning issued last month by
Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan, that Israel would be “doomed to pay a
heavy price” if it tried to assassinate members of Hamas on Turkish soil.
Tuesday’s
assassination in southern Beirut demonstrates that Israel isn’t bluffing. The
question is whether President ErdoÄŸan is. A more critical question is whether
Iran’s Foreign Ministry officials were bluffing yesterday, when they said that al-Arouri’s assassination
would “undoubtedly ignite another surge in the veins of resistance and the
motivation to fight”, not only in the Palestinian territories, but also in the
region and “among all freedom-seekers worldwide”. The inescapable fact is that
the more Israel strikes at Hamas targets abroad, the more difficult it will be
for Qatari, Turkish and Lebanese decision-makers to ignore the war in Gaza. The
long-feared regional escalation observers have been warning against appears a
little more likely after Tuesday.
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