11/09/2012 | Economia y Finanzas
US - Perspectives: Disappointing US Jobs Report Paves the Way for Fed Easing
August payroll employment growth was weaker than expected, at 96,000. A drop in the unemployment rate reflected lower labor-force participation, not rising employment. The report "seals the deal" for more easing from the Fed on September 13.
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04/08/2012 | Economia y Finanzas
US - Perspectives: US Employment Growth Improves in July
July payroll employment growth came in better than expected, at 163,000, the strongest month since February, although the unemployment rate edged up to 8.3%.
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29/07/2012 | Economia y Finanzas
US - Perspectives: US Growth Slows in the Second Quarter
The advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth came in at 1.5%, weak but not worse than expected. There is little reason to hope for improvement in the third quarter.
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29/07/2012 | Economia y Finanzas
US - Perspectives: US Growth Slows in the Second Quarter
The advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth came in at 1.5%, weak but not worse than expected. There is little reason to hope for improvement in the third quarter.
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29/07/2012 | Economia y Finanzas
US - Perspectives: US Growth Slows in the Second Quarter
The advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth came in at 1.5%, weak but not worse than expected. There is little reason to hope for improvement in the third quarter.
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29/07/2012 | Economia y Finanzas
US - Perspectives: US Growth Slows in the Second Quarter
The advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth came in at 1.5%, weak but not worse than expected. There is little reason to hope for improvement in the third quarter.
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08/07/2012 | Economia y Finanzas
US - Perspectives: Another Weak US Employment Report
June employment growth came in at just 80,000, the third month in a row below 100,000. The unemployment rate was steady at 8.2%. Firms remain very cautious about adding full-time employees.
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05/05/2012 | Economia y Finanzas
US - Perspectives: US Employment Report Disappoints Again
April payroll employment growth came in at a disappointing 115,000, the bad news tempered slightly by upward revisions to prior months. The unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point, to 8.1%, but that was only because the labor force shrank. Job growth has slowed in line with modest GDP growth, rather than GDP accelerating to catch up with employment.
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30/04/2012 | Economia y Finanzas
US - Perspectives: US First-Quarter GDP Growth Disappoints
First-quarter GDP growth came in at a disappointing 2.2%, held back by declines in business fixed investment and defense spending.
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11/03/2012 | Economia y Finanzas
US - Perspectives: US Jobs Report Shows More Labor-Market Improvement
February payroll growth came in at a strong 227,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 8.3%, but that was not bad news, since faster labor-force growth matched the pickup in hiring.
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11/03/2012 | Economia y Finanzas
US - Perspectives: US Jobs Report Shows More Labor-Market Improvement
February payroll growth came in at a strong 227,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 8.3%, but that was not bad news, since faster labor-force growth matched the pickup in hiring.
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05/09/2011 | Economia y Finanzas
Disappointing U.S. Employment Report Raises Pressure on Policymakers
The August employment report showed no jobs created (although employment would have risen 45,000 but for the effect of a telecoms strike). The unemployment rate was steady at 9.1%. Firings do not seem to have jumped, but private-sector hiring is weak and government cutbacks are continuing.
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05/09/2011 | Economia y Finanzas
Disappointing U.S. Employment Report Raises Pressure on Policymakers
The August employment report showed no jobs created (although employment would have risen 45,000 but for the effect of a telecoms strike). The unemployment rate was steady at 9.1%. Firings do not seem to have jumped, but private-sector hiring is weak and government cutbacks are continuing.
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31/07/2011 | Economia y Finanzas
Key U.S. Data Release and Events
All eyes will be on Washington at the start of the week, looking for an end to the debt-ceiling arguments before the debt limit is hit. The July employment report looms at the end of the week, and is likely to be another soft one.
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31/07/2011 | Economia y Finanzas
US - Latest GDP Report Shows U.S. Recession Was Deeper and Recovery More Anemic Than Previously Thought
Second-quarter GDP growth came in at only 1.3%, and revisions to previous quarters show a deeper recession and a weaker recovery than previously portrayed. Immediate growth prospects look bleak given the lack of underlying momentum and the damage to confidence from the debt-ceiling stand-off (even assuming that the crisis is resolved without a default).
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17/07/2011 | En Profundidad
What Happens If the United States Fails to Raise the Debt Ceiling?
Failure to raise the U.S. federal debt ceiling by the deadline of August 2 would lead to a massive fiscal contraction and a financial crisis, although it would not necessarily mean a debt default.
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17/07/2011 | En Profundidad
What Happens If the United States Fails to Raise the Debt Ceiling?
Failure to raise the U.S. federal debt ceiling by the deadline of August 2 would lead to a massive fiscal contraction and a financial crisis, although it would not necessarily mean a debt default.
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10/07/2011 | Economia y Finanzas
No Silver Lining in Bleak U.S. Jobs Report
The June employment report was much worse than expected, showing only 18,000 jobs created and a higher unemployment rate. It shows the soft patch getting worse, not better.
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10/07/2011 | Economia y Finanzas
No Silver Lining in Bleak U.S. Jobs Report
The June employment report was much worse than expected, showing only 18,000 jobs created and a higher unemployment rate. It shows the soft patch getting worse, not better.
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04/06/2011 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Employment Report Disappoints
The May employment report was weak, showing only 54,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate ticking up from 9.0% to 9.1%, underlining that the economy's soft patch is proving even softer than feared.
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04/06/2011 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Employment Report Disappoints
The May employment report was weak, showing only 54,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate ticking up from 9.0% to 9.1%, underlining that the economy's soft patch is proving even softer than feared.
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06/05/2011 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Employment Report Surprises on the Upside
The April employment report showed payrolls rising by more than 200,000 for the third month in a row, beating expectations and pointing to a resilient expansion.
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06/05/2011 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Employment Report Surprises on the Upside
The April employment report showed payrolls rising by more than 200,000 for the third month in a row, beating expectations and pointing to a resilient expansion.
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29/01/2011 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Growth Improves in the Fourth Quarter
GDP growth improved to 3.2% in the fourth quarter, from 2.6% in the third. Domestic final spending growth quickened, led by consumer spending. We expect GDP growth to quicken again in the first quarter of 2011, to around 4%.
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08/01/2011 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Employment Report for December Shows Gradual Labor Market Improvement
December's employment report was a mixed bag. There was a disappointing 103,000 jobs created, but there were upward revisions of 70,000 to October and November, and the unemployment rate tumbled from 9.8% to 9.4%.
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10/12/2010 | Economia y Finanzas
Tax Deal Boosts U.S. Growth Prospects in 2011
The tax deal struck by President Obama and the Republican leadership would boost 2011 growth to around 3.0%, from the 2.4% projection in our December forecast.
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10/10/2010 | Economia y Finanzas
September U.S. Employment Report Shows Modest Private Gains, Heavy Government Cutbacks
Private payrolls rose 64,000 in September, close to expectations, but headline employment fell a steep 95,000 due to cuts in state and local employment and in temporary federal Census hiring. The report shows the economy crawling forward at a slow pace.
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04/09/2010 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Private Employment Growth Beats Expectations
Private payrolls rose a more-than-expected 67,000 in August, and previous months were revised up. Headline employment fell 54,000 as temporary Census jobs fell again. The report suggests that the recovery is still moving forward, but at a slow pace.
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04/09/2010 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Private Employment Growth Beats Expectations
Private payrolls rose a more-than-expected 67,000 in August, and previous months were revised up. Headline employment fell 54,000 as temporary Census jobs fell again. The report suggests that the recovery is still moving forward, but at a slow pace.
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08/08/2010 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Private Payroll Employment Gains Remain Glacial
Payroll employment fell 131,000 in July, as temporary Census jobs were eliminated. Private payroll employment rose 71,000—better than June, but only because June was revised down.
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01/08/2010 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Second-Quarter GDP Report Shows Slower Growth Now, Deeper Recession Before
The initial estimate of second-quarter GDP growth came in at 2.4%, down from an upwardly revised 3.7% in the first quarter. The report showed a very cautious consumer and a sluggish recovery, which is probably slowing further in the third quarter.
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03/07/2010 | Economia y Finanzas
The U.S. Employment Report Brought More Evidence That Growth Has Slowed
Payroll employment fell 125,000 in June, as temporary Census jobs were eliminated.
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01/05/2010 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Growth Cools in the First Quarter, But the Consumer Steps Up
The first estimate of first-quarter GDP growth came in at 3.2%, down from 5.6% in the fourth quarter. Growth was still heavily dependent on the inventory cycle, but consumer spending accelerated and business equipment had another strong quarter. Construction remains a huge drag on growth.
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02/04/2010 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Payroll Report Shows Job Market Turning Up
The 162,000 gain in payrolls in the March employment report was exaggerated by special factors, but still shows the economy turning the corner to sustained job growth.
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07/03/2010 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Employment Report Suggests Jobs Market Ready to Turn Higher
The February employment report showed 36,000 jobs lost, but suggested that the economy is on the verge of creating jobs. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.7%.
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06/02/2010 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Payroll Jobs Still Edging Lower, But the Unemployment Rate Drops
The January employment report showed 20,000 jobs lost, but the unemployment rate dipped from 10.0% to 9.7%. Overall, it portrayed a jobs market that is gradually turning the corner.
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31/01/2010 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Growth Surges in the Fourth Quarter
The advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth came in at 5.7%. Growth was driven by a big swing in inventories, and such a strong pace will not be maintained. But the underlying trend is improving, and we expect 2.5–3.0% growth for 2010.
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08/01/2010 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Jobs Report Disappoints, But Employment Is Close to a Bottom
The December employment report was an anticlimax, showing 85,000 jobs lost, rather than the hoped-for increase. The unemployment rate was steady at 10.0%.
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30/10/2009 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Economy Returns to Growth in the Third Quarter
The initial estimate of third-quarter GDP growth came in at 3.5%, better than most expectations, but not quite as strong as we had anticipated. Growth momentum will probably slow as we enter 2010, since some of the supports for growth are temporary, but no double-dip downturn is in the offing.
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03/10/2009 | Economia y Finanzas
September U.S. Employment Report Disappoints
The September employment report brought a worse-than-expected 263,000 decline in employment. There was no silver lining, as the unemployment rate rose, hours worked fell, and earnings growth decelerated.
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06/09/2009 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Job Losses Slow, But Unemployment Rate Jumps
The August employment report brought mixed messages: payrolls fell 216,000, the smallest decline this year, but the unemployment rate jumped from 9.4% to 9.7%.
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08/08/2009 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Employment Report Shows Slower Job Losses, Lower Unemployment
July payrolls showed a less-than-expected decline of 247,000, consistent with a recovery in output beginning in the current quarter. The unemployment rate edged down to 9.4%, from 9.5%, although that reflected a declining labor force rather than rising employment.
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08/08/2009 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Employment Report Shows Slower Job Losses, Lower Unemployment
July payrolls showed a less-than-expected decline of 247,000, consistent with a recovery in output beginning in the current quarter. The unemployment rate edged down to 9.4%, from 9.5%, although that reflected a declining labor force rather than rising employment.
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01/08/2009 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. GDP Contraction Much Less Severe in the Second Quarter
Real GDP declined 1.0% in the second quarter, much shallower than the 6.4% decline in the first. The figures are consistent with a return to modest growth in the second half of 2009. However, revised historical data show that the recession has been deeper than previously thought.
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01/08/2009 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. GDP Contraction Much Less Severe in the Second Quarter
Real GDP declined 1.0% in the second quarter, much shallower than the 6.4% decline in the first. The figures are consistent with a return to modest growth in the second half of 2009. However, revised historical data show that the recession has been deeper than previously thought.
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01/11/2008 | Frente Externo
The U.S. Economy and the Presidential Election: The Final Verdict
IHS Global Insight's presidential election equation predicts a 6-point election victory for Barack Obama, driven by the weakness of the economy. IHS Global Insight and its predecessor companies have estimated equations predicting the outcome of presidential elections for many years, using pocketbook concerns as the key to election outcomes.
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01/11/2008 | Frente Externo
The U.S. Economy and the Presidential Election: The Final Verdict
IHS Global Insight's presidential election equation predicts a 6-point election victory for Barack Obama, driven by the weakness of the economy. IHS Global Insight and its predecessor companies have estimated equations predicting the outcome of presidential elections for many years, using pocketbook concerns as the key to election outcomes.
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03/10/2008 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Labor Market Worsens Again in September
The labor market shed 159,000 jobs in September, the biggest decline yet in this cycle. It adds to other evidence showing the economy in recession.
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03/10/2008 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Labor Market Worsens Again in September
The labor market shed 159,000 jobs in September, the biggest decline yet in this cycle. It adds to other evidence showing the economy in recession.
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08/01/2007 | Economia y Finanzas
A Strong U.S. Employment Report
The December U.S. employment report was rock-solid. Payrolls rose 167,000, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.5%, and wage gains accelerated.
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08/01/2007 | Economia y Finanzas
A Strong U.S. Employment Report
The December U.S. employment report was rock-solid. Payrolls rose 167,000, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.5%, and wage gains accelerated.
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30/07/2006 | Economia y Finanzas
U.S. Growth Slows
Second-quarter GDP growth came in below expectations at 2.5%, with a disappointing decline in business equipment spending. Slower growth has reinforced market expectations for a Fed pause on August 8.
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05/06/2006 | Economia y Finanzas
Weak Employment Report
The weak May employment report opens the door to a Federal Reserve pause in June—but upcoming inflation numbers will determine whether the Fed does indeed pause.
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