Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
  En Parrilla Medio Ambiente Sociedad High Tech Contacto
Economia y Finanzas  
 
29/01/2011 | U.S. Growth Improves in the Fourth Quarter

Nigel Gault

GDP growth improved to 3.2% in the fourth quarter, from 2.6% in the third. Domestic final spending growth quickened, led by consumer spending. We expect GDP growth to quicken again in the first quarter of 2011, to around 4%.

 

Fourth-quarter GDP growth came in at 3.2%, slightly below expectations, but up from the 2.6% pace of the third quarter. The GDP level finally surpassed its previous peak of the fourth quarter of 2007.

Domestic final spending growth rose to 3.4%, from 2.6%, led by consumer spending. Foreign trade made a huge 3.4-percentage-point contribution to growth as imports plunged. Inventories made a huge 3.7-percentage-point subtraction from growth, as inventory accumulation slowed to barely above zero. The trade and inventory effects are related—if imports do not arrive, they do not get added to inventories.

Core PCE inflation was only 0.8% year-on-year, too low for the Fed's comfort (and a key reason why it launched QE II).

The key figure in the GDP report is the acceleration in domestic final spending (that's GDP excluding inventories and net exports) to a 3.4% pace in the fourth quarter, from 2.6% in the third. It shows the private sector picking up momentum.

The key driver of the spending acceleration was consumer spending (4.4% growth, up from 2.4%), helped by strong holiday sales and better vehicle sales. Consumers still face plenty of headwinds—high unemployment, tight credit, high debt levels, falling house prices, rising gasoline and food prices—so we do not expect such a strong pace to be maintained. But we do expect consumer spending growth of around 3.2% this year, helped by the payroll tax cut introduced by December's tax package.

Business fixed investment growth decelerated because equipment and software growth dropped back into single digits, after four consecutive double-digit gains. But the path of orders is still up, business confidence has improved, and cash is available, so we see this as just a pause. On the business structures side, where there are now signs of stabilization, there was a very small increase—but that's very good news after nine successive quarterly declines. Residential construction also picked up slightly.

Government spending declined slightly, both federal and state and local, which makes the overall improvement in spending growth more impressive, since government spending had propped up demand in the third quarter. Fourth-quarter demand growth came more from the private sector.

GDP growth, at 3.2%, was close to the 3.4% increase in domestic final spending, because a huge 3.4-percentage-point addition to growth from net exports was roughly balanced by a huge 3.7-percentage-point deduction from growth from inventories.

On the trade side, exports rose 8.5%, a bit faster than in the third quarter, while imports plunged 13.6%. The biggest decline was in imports of petroleum products, a sector where we believe that a faulty seasonal adjustment procedure exaggerated the drop. But other sectors (food, industrial materials, autos, consumer goods) also had import declines.

On the inventory side, inventory accumulation was still positive but far lower than in the third quarter. That created a massive drag on growth from inventories—in part, that's just the flip side of the import decline. If imports do not arrive, inventories are run down.

Looking forward, firms probably underestimated the strength of demand in the fourth quarter, especially from the consumer, and will likely want to add more inventories in the first quarter. That will boost production, which helps GDP, but it will also suck in more imports. So, in the first quarter, inventories will be a plus for growth but trade will be a drag.

Overall, the most likely outcome is that GDP growth will accelerate again from 3.2% in the fourth quarter to around 4.0% in the first. The main threat to that improvement? A continuation of the present run of extreme weather, which would drag down construction and retail sales, in particular.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 


Otras Notas Relacionadas... ( Records 1 to 10 of 3325 )
fecha titulo
17/04/2016 Elecciones EEUU - Trump se desinfla
17/04/2016 GOP nomination process 101: Candidates’ remedial edition
11/04/2016 PEW Explains Who Is Voting For Trump And Why – OpEd
27/03/2016 Trump siempre fue Trump
18/03/2016 Enfoque: La competitividad china en el mundo de Trump
18/03/2016 How Latin Americans see the United States -Dugout diplomacy
18/03/2016 The United States and Latin America - Harmony now, discord later
17/03/2016 Pasión por Donald Trump en su cuartel general
17/03/2016 Trump: rumbo de colisión
17/03/2016 Trump y sus ‘amigos’ hispanos


Otras Notas del Autor
fecha
Título
11/09/2012|
04/08/2012|
29/07/2012|
29/07/2012|
29/07/2012|
29/07/2012|
08/07/2012|
05/05/2012|
30/04/2012|
11/03/2012|
11/03/2012|
05/09/2011|
05/09/2011|
31/07/2011|
31/07/2011|
17/07/2011|
17/07/2011|
10/07/2011|
10/07/2011|
04/06/2011|
04/06/2011|
06/05/2011|
06/05/2011|
08/01/2011|
10/12/2010|
10/10/2010|
04/09/2010|
04/09/2010|
08/08/2010|
01/08/2010|
03/07/2010|
01/05/2010|
02/04/2010|
07/03/2010|
06/02/2010|
31/01/2010|
08/01/2010|
30/10/2009|
03/10/2009|
06/09/2009|
08/08/2009|
08/08/2009|
01/08/2009|
01/08/2009|
01/11/2008|
01/11/2008|
03/10/2008|
03/10/2008|
08/01/2007|
08/01/2007|
30/07/2006|
05/06/2006|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House