Major news publications around the world are rife lately with articles noting how the decline in birth rates has reached a critical mass. Over the past years, life expectancy has increased – particularly in advanced industrial countries – just not enough to cover the shortfall of new humans. And though there are higher numbers of elderly virtually everywhere, the numbers don’t specifically account for those incapacitated, and thus rendered unproductive, by old age. Caring for the elderly will suck up a significant portion of the younger population’s time and energy unless a radical shift takes place in medicine.
I live
in the United States, which has its own bespoke problems in this regard, and
have written about this issue in several of my books. But this is a truly
global phenomenon. In many countries, there will be fewer people to grow and
produce food, nurse the infirm, teach school and do other uniquely human
endeavors. As those demands remain steady and other needs increase, it will be
more difficult to maintain social equilibrium – the result of which invariably
is social and economic unrest.
If birth
rates don’t rise sufficiently, and if life expectancies continue as they are,
then the only other option for staving off the worst is to quite literally
substitute humans with machines. This, of course, is problematic in itself.
Even assuming artificial intelligence will be able to do all its advocates
claim (which is unlikely), the management of AI will soak up the educated labor
pool, and the kinds of jobs listed above that require a human touch will be
left to machines. I suspect that will create some friction, to say the least.
Perhaps
the only other solution would be mass migration. But this would work only for
the United States and other advanced countries (and even then only maybe).
Recall that the U.S. was built on immigrants, and at every stage of development
when the country fell short of workers, it encouraged immigration to fill the
gaps. Obviously this is a politically fraught option. And because other
countries would be enacting similar policies, it would create a new and
interesting aspect of geopolitical competition. In Europe, there is tremendous
tension over immigration, which Brussels has managed much less successfully
than even the United States.
When I
was young, the greater concern was overpopulation, which would, it was said,
lead to critical shortages of food and other resources. The problem was solved,
however indirectly, by increased productive capacity and international trade.
Likewise, there is a chance that this new demographic disaster will not
materialize. However, at its root is the reluctance of the younger generation
to reproduce. It’s clear that unless there is a significant shift in the
numbers, there will be a global labor shortage and competition for immigrants
or for technical solutions in the next decade or two. The math is what it is.
Unless there are radical medical breakthroughs in areas I haven’t even thought
of, and unless governments can entice people to replace those still alive but
incapable of working, the world will share this demographic problem.
***George
Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and
strategist on international affairs and the founder and chairman of
Geopolitical Futures.
Dr.
Friedman is also a New York Times bestselling author. His most recent book, THE
STORM BEFORE THE CALM: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and
the Triumph Beyond, published February 25, 2020 describes how “the United
States periodically reaches a point of crisis in which it appears to be at war
with itself, yet after an extended period it reinvents itself, in a form both
faithful to its founding and radically different from what it had been.” The
decade 2020-2030 is such a period which will bring dramatic upheaval and
reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture.


His most
popular book, The Next 100 Years, is kept alive by the prescience of its
predictions. Other best-selling books include Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis
in Europe, The Next Decade, America’s Secret War, The Future of War and The
Intelligence Edge. His books have been translated into more than 20 languages.
Dr.
Friedman has briefed numerous military and government organizations in the
United States and overseas and appears regularly as an expert on international
affairs, foreign policy and intelligence in major media. For almost 20 years
before resigning in May 2015, Dr. Friedman was CEO and then chairman of
Stratfor, a company he founded in 1996. Friedman received his bachelor’s degree
from the City College of the City University of New York and holds a doctorate
in government from Cornell University.
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/author/gfriedman/
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