Here's why Ukraine's claims about Iranian drones in the hands of Russia matter and how this may impact Iran's threats to the Middle East.
Ukraine
claiming it shot down an Iranian Shahed-136 drone, if true, would be the first
evidence that Iranian drones are being used by Russia. Here's why it's a big
deal.
Russia
had sent delegations to Iran to examine the drones earlier this year and the
first shipment allegedly arrived in Russia in August. That Russia would be able
to put them into action so quickly may be surprising.
On the
other hand, Russia is losing ground to a Ukrainian offensive and Moscow prefers
to sacrifice either non-Russians or equipment in its fight against Ukraine
while trying to avoid the conscription of large numbers of men in Moscow for
the war.
Why is
this important now?
Back in
July, US reports circulated that Russia was looking into Iranian drones. By
August 6, Russia had already deployed the drones to the frontline. By September
7, the US had sanctioned Iranian firms involved in the manufacture and shipping
of drones to Russia.
So which
drones are we talking about? According to reports, the drones are the Shahed
171 and also the Shahed 129 and 191. The 191 is a large Delta-wing-shaped
drone, and the Shahed 129 looks like a Predator drone, similar to a small
plane.
Reports
also circulated that the Moahjer-6 was one of the drones Russia was looking at.
The US has said that the Russians were training with the drones in early
August. Were the Iranian drones operational? Will they survive the harsh
environment and will Russia produce them locally?
The
Ukrainian report from today shows photos of parts of a downed drone. The piece
of the drone looks like part of a wing-shaped Shahed-136. This drone is
launched from a canister on a vehicle and is designed to kamikaze into a
target. Iran has shipped similar drones to Yemen, according to reports from
January 2021. Iran has also sold its Mohajer drones to Ethiopia and
Venezuela.
“The
Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed an Iranian strike unmanned aerial vehicle for
the first time,” Ukraine said. “Photos of the previously unknown UAV were
published by the Ukrainian officer on Twitter. The remains of the device show
Cyrillic inscriptions – Ðœ214 Geran-2… Analysis of the drone wing elements makes
it clear that the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed the Iranian UAV for the
first time. This was namely a Shahed-136 long-range kamikaze UAV.”
According
to the AP, the Ukrainian military “said Ukrainian troops encountered the drone
near Kupiansk amid Kyiv’s offensive that has punched through Russian lines
around Kharkiv on the eastern front.” It is possible that Russia, feeling hard
pressed on the Kharkiv front, has used drones. Russia has been scrambling to
figure out what to do as a Ukrainian offensive pushes by Russian forces in
Ukraine.
The
dangerous connection between Iran and Russia
Evidence
of the growing Iran-Russia drone connection is important to reveal Iran’s role
in Russia’s invasion.
Iran
previously appeared more neutral in this conflict, but Iran and Russia have
become closer allies. Russia wants to use Iran as a way to escape sanctions
from the West, and Iran wants to use Russia in return.
Russia
is also aiding Iran in the Iran deal talks with the West. Meanwhile, Iran is
heading to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization confab this week in Uzbekistan
alongside Russia. That means that these countries will be holding close talks
with other authoritarian regimes.
Iran’s
drone exports are important but they won’t reverse Russia’s problems in
Ukraine. Drones alone don’t win wars and it’s not clear how many drones Russia
has acquired.
What can
Russia do?
Russia
can use drones to target strategic infrastructure or the power grid of Ukraine;
or US-supplied weapons, such as artillery. That the alleged drone has Cyrillic
writing appears to mean that it has some kind of Russian stamp on it. Does this
mean Russia may manufacture the drones or standardize them at home?
Iran
built a drone factory in Tajikistan and it is possible it could outsource that
drone production to Russia. Much remains to be seen. One part of a wing of a
drone is not enough evidence to show how deeply Russia may be seeking to use
Iran’s drones in its war on Ukraine.
The
Iranian drone export to Russia is important because it shows how Iran believes
it has impunity to threaten countries all over the world. For instance, Iran is
involved now in cyberattacks on Albania. Russia is also alleged to be behind
recent cyberattacks on Montenegro.
Together,
Russia and Iran are involved in numerous anti-Western aggressions. Israel is
concerned about Iran backing Hezbollah and therefore Iran’s role in harming
Ukraine illustrates the growing Iranian threat.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-717059