The attack on Iraq’s Prime Minister is another step in drone warfare and is a message by pro-Iran groups in Iraq that the prime minister is not safe.
Reports
on Sunday of a drone attack on the home of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa
Al-Kadhimi represent a major escalation in the region.
It
represents the increased use of unmanned aerial vehicles, primarily by
Iranian-backed groups, to spread terror throughout the Middle East. It also
represents the increased use of drones as a strategic weapon, in this case,
with the goal of intimidating the Iraqi prime minister just days after security
forces clashed with pro-Iranian protesters.
It’s
likely that the attack was carried out by pro-Iranian militias as there are
probably no other culprits in Iraq who have drones that could or would attack
the Iraqi prime minister.
While
ISIS has used drones in the past, it’s not clear why they would suddenly emerge
now to target the Iraqi leader and that leaves Iran-backed groups firmly in the
frame.
While
official reports have not yet specified what group was behind the attack and no
one has yet taken responsibility for it, the trend of such attacks in the
region points to Iranian-linked groups.
A drone
was used to attack a US garrison at Tanf in Syria in October. In July, a drone
was used to attack a commercial tanker in the Gulf of Oman, killing two crew
members. In both instances, the US and other countries have pointed the finger
at Iran.
In May,
a drone was launched from Iraq, or possibly from Syria, targeting Israel during
the 11-day war with Hamas. It is believed that Iran was also behind this
attack.
For
years, Iran has been building more sophisticated drones for surveillance and
kamikaze-style attacks. The drones have become better at navigation and
pre-programmed flight paths, or even real-time intelligence gathering. The fact
they have targeted a moving ship is a clear indication of this.
An
attack on the residence of Kadhimi is also a likely message by pro-Iran groups
in Iraq that the prime minister is not immune.
Iraqi
armed forces announced the start of investigations to discover the location of
the launch of the booby-trapped drone that targeted Kadhimi, according to
reports. Images showed the damage to the home, but it is unclear if drone
fragments had been found that would link the design to any single country or
entity.
One of
the reasons pro-Iran groups — including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in
Yemen — use drones, is that it is difficult to trace their launch site and to
know who is behind them once they are launched.
Israel
has, in the past, accused Iran of creating a drone training center. Drones from
Iran and technology from Iran have been key to aiding Houthi efforts to attack
Saudi Arabia.
Since
January, the pro-Iran militias in Iraq have increasingly used drones to target
US forces. This has occurred even in Erbil where the pro-Iran militias used a
drone in the spring of 2021 to target what US media called, at the time, a CIA
hangar at Erbil airport. Pro-Iran groups have done parades with drones.
But, the
kind of drone used to attack the Iraqi premier may be smaller than some of the
kamikaze drones, which tend to be larger than a human.
Locating
parts of the equipment will be important, but Iraq’s security services may be
reticent to conclude that Iran or any of its proxy groups were behind the
attack.
Why?
Because in previous incidents where Iraq’s prime minister has acted against
pro-Iranian groups engaged in illegal attacks, they succeeded in freeing their
jailed members as a result.
Now, the
groups, most linked to the Fatah party in parliament and the paramilitary Hashd
al-Shaabi, have been conducting a sit-in to demand the overturn of recent
election results. This kind of election protest is designed to raise tensions
and pressure the prime minister.
The
problem that Iraq’s government is facing is that the militias are often tied to
official paramilitary forces because former Iraqi prime minister, Haider Abadi,
pushed to give the militias a legitimate role.
The
militias were given increased power in 2014, based on some existing pro-Iran
units, to fight ISIS but after the war on ISIS ended, the militias refused to
go home and Abadi, who was backed by the US, empowered the militias.
They
soon began taking over the border area of Albukamal in Syria, next to Iraq’s
Al-Qaim, and funneling weapons from Iran to Hezbollah. They have been targeted
by airstrikes, several of which were carried out by the US in retaliation for
their attacks.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/drone-attack-on-iraqi-pm-is-a-major-escalation-analysis-684244