All is not well in the Democratic Party’s quest for a presidential nominee.
Just ask
Michael Bloomberg.
The New
York billionaire, whose career in business and politics has been guided by data
and analysis above all, is stepping toward a Democratic run of his own less
than 90 days before the first votes are cast. More than anything, his decision
reflects two prime factors: the glaring weakness of establishment-favorite Joe
Biden and persistent fears that his surging rival, Elizabeth Warren, is too
liberal to defeat President Donald Trump in a general election.
It’s far
from clear that Bloomberg, a former Republican with no broad political base,
can compete with Biden or Warren should he decide to run. Yet his step in that
direction represents a powerful indictment of his new party’s presidential
field.
“This is
a team that is very smart and methodical,” said New York-based Democratic
pollster Jef Pollock. “It reflects a feeling that the field cannot beat Donald
Trump, and therefore, they feel like they have to try.”
Just
seven months ago, Bloomberg announced he would not enter the Democratic primary
after a brief exploration phase. His advisers, at the time, privately shared
their analysis that there wasn’t room for another centrist like Bloomberg with
Biden in the race.
What a
difference seven months makes.
The
former vice president showed vulnerability in his campaign’s earliest days with
a series of flubs and uneven performances that bothered his establishment
allies. Still, Biden led in virtually every poll for much of the year because
of the persistent belief that he was the most electable Democrat in a
head-to-head matchup against Trump.
A
turning point came last month when Biden released a weak third-quarter
fundraising report that undermined a supposed strength, raising serious
questions about the extent of his support from the party’s power brokers. And
in recent weeks, a series of underwhelming polls in Iowa and New Hampshire
suggested that Biden is falling behind in the states that typically matter most
in primary politics.
He is
clearly trending in the wrong direction. And the universe of concerned
Democrats is expanding.
They
include establishment allies such as former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who
encouraged Biden last month to fire consultants and stop flying on private
planes. They include rank-and-file voters like Bobbi Helton, a retiree from
Hilton Head, S.C., who said this week that she’s still shopping for a candidate
in the moderate lane.
“I’ve
always thought Biden was wonderful,” she said at an event for another candidate
this week. “But watching the debates he’s a step behind in his thinking. If
he’s going to debate Trump, Trump is going to wipe him out.”
And the
ranks of the concerned now officially include the 77-year-old Bloomberg, a
perennial almost-candidate who is one of the world’s richest men. He is moving
to qualify for the presidential primary ballot in Alabama, the state with the
earliest filing deadline.
It does
not ensure he will formally launch a campaign, but it certainly keeps the door
open.
Lest
there be any doubt about what’s fueling his decision, chief political aide
Howard Wolfson explained Bloomberg’s thinking late Thursday as the political
world grappled with the significance of his boss’ stunning decision to step
toward a run.
“We now
need to finish the job and ensure that Trump is defeated,” Wolfson said, “but
Mike is increasingly concerned that the current field of candidates is not well
positioned to do that.”
Of
course, Biden’s underwhelming candidacy is only one piece. The other top-tier
candidates have glaring weaknesses that have deepened Democrats’ sense of
anxiety as well.
Bernie
Sanders is a 78-year-old self-described democratic socialist recovering from a
heart attack. Pete Buttigieg is 37-year-old mayor whose chief accomplishment is
leading a city that can fit into college football stadium. And Warren, who has
surged past Biden in Iowa and New Hampshire, wants to eliminate private health
insurance in favor of a government-backed plan she’s struggling to explain how
she’d pay for.
Bloomberg’s
team is concerned about Warren’s rise, in particular.
She is
the anti-Bloomberg in many ways. The Massachusetts senator has built her 2020
campaign around a series of bold, progressive ideas that would transform the
nation’s political and economic systems, but have little realistic chance of
becoming law in a divided Congress.
Warren
rails against the billionaire class, to which Bloomberg belongs, and she
refuses to accept political donations from big donors like him. Her fiery brand
of liberal politics is largely in line with the base of the modern-day
Democratic Party, which is clamoring for dramatic change in the age of Trump.
Yet
Bloomberg fears she cannot win a general election.
That’s
not to say there aren’t other more centrist options already in the race. The
current field — some 16 people strong — includes alternatives like Amy
Klobuchar a Midwestern moderate, Michael Bennet, a mild-mannered senator and
Steve Bullock, a red-state governor who knows how to talk to Trump voters.
But add
up the averages of their support and you get to less five percent. Only one of
them, Klobuchar, has qualified for next month’s debate. And nine months into
her candidacy, she’s showing no signs of breaking out of the low single digits.
Their
poor performance suggests Bloomberg, who might also struggle to qualify for
debates, would need a dramatically different strategy, one that relies on
national advertising and building support outside the traditional early states.
Bloomberg
is far from an ideological warrior, a pragmatic former New York City mayor who
formally joined the Democratic Party only in October of 2018. Earlier this year
as he first explored a 2020 run, he charged that none of his more liberal
critics have made as much progress on the top issues of the day: climate
change, gun violence and immigration.
On all
three, Bloomberg has created sprawling nation-wide organizations backed by his
vast fortune that have helped enact a series of progressive shifts in cities
and states across the country. Such issues have particular resonance in the
nation’s suburbs, Republican-leaning areas that have shifted away from Trump’s
Republican Party since his election.
But
pragmatism and accomplishment, those were supposed to be Biden’s chief selling
points. For Biden, the buyers are becoming harder to find.
South
Carolina Democratic strategist Boyd Brown, who’s still looking for a strong
moderate after his preferred candidate, Beto O’Rourke, quit the race, is open
minded.
“The
ones in the front of the pack now don’t really motivate me, so let’s see what
Bloomberg’s got,” he said. “We’ve already discounted one billionaire and he’s
in White House.”
***Peoples
has been covering national politics for The Associated Press since 2011.
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