The suburban revolt against President Donald Trump’s Republican Party is growing.
And if
nothing else, the GOP’s struggle across the South on Tuesday revealed that
Republicans don’t have a plan to fix it.
In
Kentucky, Trump and his allies went all in to rescue embattled Gov. Matt Bevin,
who wrapped himself in the president’s image in his pugnacious campaign. In
Virginia, embattled Republicans ran away from Trump, downplaying their support
for his policies and encouraging him to stay away.
In the
end, neither strategy was a sure winner.
Bevin’s
race remained too close to call on Wednesday, locked in a virtual dead heat
with Democrat Andy Beshear in a state Trump won by nearly 30 percentage points
in 2016. The GOP in Virginia lost control of both houses of the legislature for
the first time in a generation.
It’s
difficult to draw sweeping conclusions from state elections, each with their
own unique quirks and personalities. But there’s little doubt Tuesday’s outcome
is a warning to Republicans across the nation a year out from the 2020 election
and a year after the 2018 midterms: The suburbs are still moving in the wrong
direction.
“Republican
support in the suburbs has basically collapsed under Trump,” Republican
strategist Alex Conant said. “Somehow, we need to find a way to regain our
suburban support over the next year.”
The
stakes are undoubtedly high. While neither Virginia nor Kentucky is likely to
be a critical battleground in the presidential race next year, Tuesday’s
results confirm a pattern repeated across critical swing states — outside of
Philadelphia, Detroit and Charlotte, North Carolina. They’re also sure to
rattle Republican members of Congress searching for a path to victory through
rapidly shifting territory.
To be
sure, Republicans demonstrated their firm grip on rural areas, and turnout for
both sides appeared to be healthy for off-year elections. Notably, Kentucky’s
voters elected Republicans to a handful of other statewide offices. In
Mississippi, another Trump stronghold, Republicans kept their hold on the
governor’s office, as Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves defeated well-funded Democratic
Attorney General Jim Hood.
But the
GOP’s challenge was laid bare in lower-profile elections across the nation on
Tuesday.
Just
outside Philadelphia, Democrats said they took control of the Delaware County’s
five-member council for the first time since the Civil War. In nearby Chester
County, Democrats beat two Republican incumbents on the board of commissioners
to seize the majority for the first time ever.
The same
shifts defined state legislative races across Virginia’s suburbs, particularly
in places like Henrico County just outside Richmond.
Republican
state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant won there by almost 20 percentage points four
years ago. The area has recently been transformed by an influx of younger,
college-educated voters and minorities, a combination that’s become a recipe
for Democrats’ support.
Dunnavant
ended up winning by 2 percentage points against Democrat Debra Rodman, a
college professor who seized on Trump and her Republican opponent’s opposition
to gun control to appeal to moderate voters.
In
northern Virginia, Democrat John Bell flipped a state Senate district from red
to blue in a district that has traditionally favored Republicans. The race, set
in the rapidly growing and diverse counties outside of Washington, D.C.,
attracted nearly $2 million in political advertising.
Democrats’
surging strength in the suburbs reflects the anxiety Trump provokes among
moderates, particularly women, who have rejected his scorched-earth politics
and uncompromising conservative policies on health care, education and gun
violence.
Republicans’
response in Virginia was to try to stay focused on local issues. In the
election’s final days, Dunnavant encouraged Trump to stay out of the state. The
president obliged, sending Vice President Mike Pence instead.
Struggling
for a unifying message, some Republicans turned to impeachment, trying to tie
local Democrats to their counterparts in Washington and the effort to impeach
Trump.
No one
played that card harder than Kentucky’s Bevin, who campaigned aside an
“impeachment” banner and stood next to Trump on the eve of the election.
But even
in ruby-red Kentucky, Trump was not a cure-all and the trouble in the suburbs
emerged.
Bevin
struggled in Republican strongholds across the northern part of the state,
where the Democrats’ drift and increased enthusiasm was clear.
In 2015,
Bevin won Campbell County south of Cincinnati handily. On Tuesday, Beshear not
only carried the county with ease, he nearly doubled the number of Democratic
votes there, compared to the Democratic nominee of four years ago. Beshear also
found another 74,000 Democratic votes in urban Jefferson County, home of
Louisville.
Beshear
led Bevin by the narrowest of margins Tuesday night: less than 0.4 percentage
points. Bevin formally requested a recanvass of vote totals on Wednesday.
Republicans
were quick to blame Bevin for his stumbles. The governor was distinctly
unpopular and picked fights with powerful interests in the state. Still, it was
difficult for Republicans not to note the warning signs for the party next year
and beyond.
“They
continue to lose needed support in suburban districts, especially among women
and college-educated voters,” said Republican strategist Rick Tyler. “That
trend, if not reversed, is a death spiral.”
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