We have learned many things about Syria during the past year, while some other aspects of the situation there remain unclear.
The most important thing that we have learned is that
President Bashar Assad is not the modern, liberal reformer that many had
painted him as being during the past decade.
The truth is that nobody really knew the reality of
Assad’s personality or political instincts. In the past year, since many of his
own people have openly risen up against him and demanded his ouster, he has
responded with consistent force and the employment of frequently inhuman
tactics, lies, and broken promises.
This has culminated to date in the two recent massacres
of helpless villagers in Houla and Qubayr. We now know, without any ambiguity
whatsoever, what Assad represents, and what he will do, and it is very ugly
indeed.
The Syrian president has pursued a policy that requires
the continued use of massive and cruel violence against his own people. Assad’s
expectation is that he will terrorize and traumatize the Syrian population into
submission. That policy has not worked in the past year. In fact, repression
usually does not work for long in any other such authoritarian police state
that relies on fear rather than legitimacy as its basis for authority and
incumbency.
Rather, Assad’s violent approach has only caused the
rebellion against him and his circle of equally cruel rulers to grow, while
also eliciting greater regional and international support for the opposition
that wants to bring down Assad rule and end the terrible security state that he
and his father have managed for 42 years.
The growing opposition to the Assad regime and the
intensifying international calls for the Syrian president’s downfall will
ultimately bring about precisely that fate for him. The only thing that remains
unclear, however, is how and when he will leave office, and allow the Syrian
people to rebuild their country as well as their governance system on what we
assume will be a more rational basis.
I wrote about nine months ago that Assad had lost the
critical legitimacy – namely his domestic, regional and international
legitimacy – and that it was that he needed to rule over Syria, only a question
of whether he would depart peacefully or after having provoked a bloodbath.
I wondered then if Assad had it in him to recognize his
loss of legitimacy, and initiate from the top the similar kinds of changes that
the onetime Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, had introduced in the Soviet
Union over a generation ago.
We now know the answer, which is that Assad was incapable
of embarking on any peaceful reform process that would bring about a democratic
Syria or, for that matter, end the rule of his family.
The most critical trend now underway in Syria is the
improved performance and capabilities of the local opposition groups and some
of the opposition groups abroad. This has resulted in the creation of patches
of territory from which the Syrian government has withdrawn, and where
opposition groups control the terrain.
As these areas expand, an outcome that is likely, the
political and military ability of the opposition groups to demoralize
government troops and officials will expand steadily; and this trend will be
bolstered by significant injections of Arab and foreign assistance.
When the revolt against Assad began in late March 2011,
most of the world thought that trying to remove his regime would result in
local and regional consequences that were both too dangerous and unpredictable
to risk bringing about.
In the last year, however, Assad has pursued such an
incalculably stupid set of policies that most of the world now feels that the
dangers of allowing him and his regime to remain in place are greater than the
dangers of toppling him.
The world has given the plan of the U.N.-Arab League
envoy, Kofi Annan, many months to achieve a breakthrough, but without success. This
is mainly the case because of the Syrian government’s inability to stop killing
its own people.
I would guess that the next step now is for the
international community that opposes Assad’s rule to explore formal diplomatic
means of delegitimizing and strangling his government, by helping to form and
then officially recognizing a unified Syrian opposition movement as the
official government-in-exile of the Syrian people.
This will not happen quickly, due to the fragmented
nature of the Syrian opposition. The enticement of official international
recognition – which has informally started with the support that opposition
groups already receive from abroad – will probably oblige the movement to
achieve at least minimal coordination among Syrian opposition movements inside
and outside the country.
The increased sectarian nature of the killings in Syria
are a problem, but a problem that has only recently emerged, mainly due to the
sectarian-based regime’s apparent determination to stoke this fire without
considering its ultimate consequences.
Neighboring Iraq is a sad example of what happens when
sectarianism is allowed to become politicized and then militarized, leading to
years or even decades of internecine violence.
We know much more now about Assad than we did last year,
but we also know more about the people of Syria, who have demonstrated
mind-boggling courage and determination to live as free and dignified citizens
in a democratic and modern Arab state. Their day is nearing.
**Rami G. Khouri is published twice weekly
by THE DAILY STAR.