Despite the turmoil on the international front, news on the U.S. economy generally rolled in on the positive side early this week, and U.S. stocks recovered losses on Wednesday and landed at about the same levels as the close of the previous week.

The general tone of indicators on the U.S. economy, in fact, is expected to continue to improve next week. We expect November consumer confidence to move up and gains in leading ISM indicators. Auto sales should approach the 12-million-unit annual rate in November, and while October construction spending will be flat, we expect about 160,000 private payroll jobs in November.

KEY U.S. DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK

Tuesday, November 30 – Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.)

• IHS Global Insight: 53.0
• Consensus: 52.1
• Last Actual: 50.2 (Oct.)

What to Look For

• The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index should rise to 53.0 in November, up from the October reading of 50.2.

Implications

Despite higher gasoline prices, consumer confidence is expected to increase due to gains in household net worth from the rising stock market and relatively good news on the employment front.

Wednesday, December 1 – Productivity (Final Q3)

Nonfarm Business Productivity

• IHS Global Insight: 1.9%
• Consensus: 2.3%
• Last Actual: 1.9% (Preliminary Q3)

Unit Labor Costs

• IHS Global Insight: 0.0%
• Consensus: -0.3%
• Last Actual: -0.1% (Preliminary Q3)

What to Look For

• Third-quarter productivity growth to remain unchanged, at 1.9%.

Implications

We are expecting no change to the third-quarter nonfarm business productivity estimate of 1.9% growth. Output growth will be revised up 0.7 percentage point, but we expect this to be offset by an upward revision to hours. Unit labor costs should be revised to show no change (instead of a 0.1% decline).

Wednesday, December 1 – Construction Spending (Oct.)

Construction Put in Place

• IHS Global Insight: 0.0%
• Consensus: -0.3%
• Last Actual: 0.5% (Sep.)

Construction Excl. Residential Improvements

• IHS Global Insight: 0.0%
• Last Actual: -0.3% (Sep.)

What to Look For

• Overall construction to be unchanged—declines in commercial and housing to be largely offset by infrastructure gains.

Implications

The October construction numbers should be a mixed bag. Nonresidential construction and single-family home construction are expected to be down by more than 1%. But increased infrastructure spending should offset these declines, leaving overall construction spending unchanged.

Wednesday, December 1 – ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.)

• IHS Global Insight: 58.0
• Consensus: 56.0
• Last Actual: 56.9 (Oct.)

What to Look For

• The ISM index for manufacturing should firm to 58.0, from 56.9, getting a lift from greater strength in production activity.

Implications

The summer lull is breaking up. In regional evidence so far, readings from Philadelphia, Richmond, and Kansas City all showed improvement, although the (less reliable) New York Empire score collapsed, suggesting that all is not peaches and cream. Nevertheless, we expect the national survey to show an improving picture. A key to watch is if strength continues in the export reading.

Wednesday, December 1 – Motor Vehicle Sales (Nov.)

• IHS Global Insight: 12.0 Mil.
• Consensus: 12.1 Mil.
• Last Actual: 12.3 Mil. (Oct.)

What to Look For

• Sales to ease slightly, but still land at a good rate of 12.0-million annualized units.

Implications

The November SAAR is estimated at 12.0-million units. Automakers are thankful for the help from easing credit conditions and slowly building consumer sentiment, as auto sales continue their measured momentum heading into next year.

Friday, December 3 – Employment Report (Nov.)

Nonfarm Payrolls

• IHS Global Insight: 150,000
• Consensus: 145,000
• Last Actual: 151,000 (Oct.)

Unemployment Rate

• IHS Global Insight: 9.6%
• Consensus: 9.6%
• Last Actual: 9.6% (Oct.)

Average Hourly Earnings (All Employees)

• IHS Global Insight: 0.1%
• Consensus: 0.2%
• Last Actual: 0.2% (Oct.)

What to Look For

• We expect overall employment to rise 150,000 in November, similar to the 151,000 increase in October, with 160,000 jobs added in the private sector and 10,000 jobs lost in the government sector.

Implications

Temporary Census jobs have almost all disappeared by now and are no longer distorting the figures. We expect the unemployment rate to hold at 9.6%. The labor market is beginning to improve, but it is not yet generating enough jobs to drive unemployment lower.

Friday, December 3 – ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Nov.)

• IHS Global Insight: 55.3
• Consensus: 54.7
• Last Actual: 54.3 (Oct.)

What to Look For

• The ISM index for services industries is expected to move up in November by about a point, to 55.3.

Implications

Freight volumes continued to increase, consumer spending trends are improving, and manufacturing activity indicators overall continue to be constructive. We expect less of a positive push from the financial sector, and the growth of new orders could also fall back by a couple of notches, so those headwinds should restrain the gain to about one point.