It is relevant to recall here events of the past few years in which some small and hapless nations were subjected to a major cyber offensive from their adversaries. First was the attack in 2007 on Estonia, whose economic life was paralysed by Denial of Service (DoS) attacks unleashed from about a million computers, many of which were traced to Russia. It is an open secret that relations between the two nations have been frosty for quite some time. Estonia was under Soviet occupation from 1944 and obtained its freedom only in 1991.

Next was the Russian offensive against Georgia in 2008 as part of a dispute over South Ossetia. Apart from military exchanges, the occasion saw the hijacking of Georgian computers through cyber attacks originating from Russia. Even the Georgian President's official computers were not spared. In July 2009, German espionage agents complained of Internet spying operations by Russia and China with the objective of stealing vital information on critical infrastructure and defence plans. In December, Seoul reported attempts by North Korean computers to hack into the former's databases relating to US-South Korean defence strategies in the event of a war in the Korean peninsula.

Also, Google recently launched an investigation into attacks on Internet accounts of human rights activists in China. This has actually ballooned into a major controversy, as a result of which Google has decided not to submit itself to censorship imposed by the Chinese authorities and also revealed the possibility of it pulling out of China altogether.

All this is evidence enough to substantiate the growing feeling that the wars of the future will be fought in cyberspace rather than on traditional battle fields. It is this assessment that has persuaded the Pentagon to prepare itself for a war in cyberspace on par with land, sea and aerial combat. According to one report, it will deploy a large number of cyber experts to look after its 15,000 computer networks spread over 4,000 installations. I presume our South Block has a similar core of trained cyber security team. Or else, in these troubled times, with several hostile neighbours around us, we could be in trouble.

All reports suggest that the al Qaeda is still very active. Its principal foes are the US and the UK. India comes a close third. It is the expert estimate that the al Qaeda may not any longer aim at our defence establishments. It is likely rather to concentrate on our weakest spot, namely, the financial sector. The latter may be strong in terms of business acumen. But what it is generally lax about is in respect of protection of its valuable information networks. The stock market is especially vulnerable. Any interference with its online traffic relating to financial transactions, through tactics such as DoS attacks, could be disastrous. Any deliberate corruption of data relating to deals carried out by large-scale credit agencies will be equally ruinous. These are not imaginary but real threats of which financial managers in government and the private sector need to be aware. Any large-scale disruption of the financial market, especially at a time like the present, when economies are passing through a lean phase, could greatly affect political stability. Expert apprehensions of a terrorist use of weak information networks run by financial institutions cannot therefore be ignored.

I would like to draw reader attention to an interesting piece, Cyber Warriors by James Fallows in the latest issue of Atlantic, in which he has a lot to say about threats emanating from the Chinese mainland. Its huge population and high computer literacy (with hundreds of millions of Internet users) give an advantage that is difficult to surpass. In crude terms, China could raise a formidable team of young hackers who could cause havoc to other nations with whom China does not enjoy good relations. This is an army that has the might to bring about a total breakdown of the commercial life of any nation of any size. This is an interesting analysis worth pondering over.

James Fallows refers to a forthcoming novel Directive 51 by John Barnes, which depicts a situation where there is such a breakdown. I am sure it is worth waiting for. We can possibly also draw from it some lessons on how to look after our networks!

 **The writer is a former CBI Director who is currently Adviser (Security) to TCS Ltd.