RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO CONDUCT human intelligence operations in Europe has suffered greater damage in recent years than at any time since 1991, according to some experts.
These setbacks have partly been caused by what
The Washington Post refers to in a
recent article
as “a campaign to cripple Russian spy networks”, which is taking place
across the continent. This Europe-wide campaign has grown in momentum
since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and supplements boarder efforts to
arm Ukraine in its war against the Kremlin.
The initial blow against the Kremlin’s spy network was delivered last year, when a wave of mass expulsions
of Russian diplomats resulted in more than 400 suspected Russian
intelligence officers being ordered to leave various European capitals.
According to observes, the expelled Russian diplomats were in reality
intelligence officers, who were active across Europe under diplomatic
cover. Since that time, European counterintelligence agencies have
launched a series of “precision strikes” against what remains of
Russia’s human intelligence network across the continent.
The recent wave of expulsions of Russian
intelligence personnel was not unprecedented. But it does suggest a
degree of collaboration between Europe’s counterintelligence agencies
that is difficult to match with historical examples. An interesting
element in this collaboration is what The Washington Post
describes as a “post-Ukraine shift in mind-set” in countries that had
previously taken a softer approach toward the Kremlin. These include
Germany, as well as Britain, which since 2018 has “refused on national
security grounds over 100 Russian diplomatic visa applications”.
Russia’s response has been noticeably
muted, and may mean that Moscow was caught off-guard by this Europe-wide
counterintelligence campaign. The Post quotes Antti Pelttari,
director of the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service (SUPO), who
claims that the Russian capability to conduct human intelligence
operations in Europe “has been degraded considerably”. This would imply
that the Kremlin’s ability to carry out covert political action, such as
political influence campaigns and related psychological operations, has
been curtailed. Moreover, it is likely that the Russian intelligence
services are unable to adequately assist the Kremlin’s decision-making
capabilities with actionable information.
It stands to reason that Russia has tried
to compensate for these suspected losses by utilizing its formidable
cyberespionage capabilities. Additionally, there have been at least two recent cases of Russian intelligence operatives who employed non-official cover
personas, using fake Brazilian citizenship papers. It is reasonable to
assume that many other cases are being pursued by Western intelligence
agencies, but thus far remain away from the media limelight. The Post
speculates that the Kremlin may be able “to take advantage of border
crossings and refugee flows to deploy new non-official-cover spies and
replenish its depleted ranks”.
But such moves are likely to be happening
hastily and with little preparation. These new non-official-cover spies
are probably far less trained than the intelligence officers they are
replacing. Moreover, they are working without the protection of
diplomatic cover and in relative isolation from Russia’s global
diplomatic infrastructure. As a result, they are operating in relative
isolation and are expected to improvise to a large extent. This may
explain why a number of them have been caught recently.
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