Known officially as the Idealist Clubs Educational and Cultural Foundation, the Grey Wolves organization is the paramilitary arm of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a militant political force that occupies most of the far-right space of Turkish politics.
ON FRIDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2022, an assailant on a motorcycle
opened fire
on Sinan AteÅŸ, the leader of Turkey’s most feared paramilitary force,
known as the Grey Wolves. By that evening, the 38-year-old AteÅŸ had
expired in an Ankara hospital, prompting analysts to forewarn that
Turkish politics had entered new and unchartered territory. Indeed, some
observers claim that AteÅŸ’ assassination may impact Turkey’s upcoming
presidential elections in unpredictable ways. The leading political
figures in this strategically important NATO member-state, including its
authoritarian leader, Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan, are paying close attention.
Turkey’s Far-Right Shock Troops
Known officially as the Idealist Clubs
Educational and Cultural Foundation, the Grey Wolves organization is the
paramilitary arm of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a militant
political force that occupies most of the far-right space of Turkish
politics. The MHP espouses authoritarian and anti-Western views and is
violently opposed to negotiations with Turkey’s ethnic minorities,
including the Kurds. Its politics appeal to ultra-conservative voters,
who are usually male and over the age of 35. The Grey Wolves operate as
the MHP’s shock troops, often engaging in bloody street fights against
Kurds, leftists, and other popular forces that stand in opposition to
the Turkish far-right. Known for their machismo and violent bravado, the
Grey Wolves appeal to working-class men in their teens and twenties. In
essence, therefore, the MHP and the Grey Wolves are two sides of the
same coin.
In 2015, the MHP formed an electoral pact
with President ErdoÄŸan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). The
formation of this pact, known as the People’s Alliance, marked the
culmination of a long process of informal cooperation between the two
sides, which had been going on since at least 2007. The People’s
Alliance has been instrumental in preserving the AKP’s domination of
Turkish political life in recent years, despite the loss of popularity
that President ErdoÄŸan has been experiencing. Currently the AKP relies
directly on the MHP’s parliamentary support to rule Turkey with a
minority government. The Grey Wolves, which tend to be more unruly than
their parent organization, are nominally in support of ErdoÄŸan, but tend
to see him as too mellow and not sufficiently authoritarian.
The Fragmentation of the MHP
The MPH likes to project itself as a
unified militant organization. In reality, it has always been the
product of an uneasy alliance between disparate far-right groups. Its
membership ranges from social conservatives to ultranationalists, Hanafi
(Sunni) puritans and even neo-fascists. In 2017, when the MHP and the
AKP formed the People’s Alliance, several of these groups voiced serious
misgivings about aligning themselves with ErdoÄŸan. Eventually, a vocal
faction of pro-Western and secularist conservatives left the party over
concerns that the MHP would be completely absorbed by the pro-Islamist
and anti-Western AKP.
These dissenters proceeded to form the İyi Parti
(Good Party), a reformist conservative movement, which has since grown
to rival the MHP in popularity. Some observers now claim that the
formation of the Good Party may have halved the MHP’s electoral
strength. As can be expected, the ideological split between the MHP and
the Good Party quickly spilled over to the Grey Wolves. By 2021, dozens
of leading Grey Wolves members had left the group and had joined the
splinter organization. Throughout that time, the charismatic AteÅŸ, who
had been appointed chairman of the Grey Wolves in 2019, remained largely
silent.
By 2020, however, there were rumors that
AteÅŸ was himself close to resigning from the MHP and joining the Good
Party. Had that happened, it would have placed Devlet Bahçeli, the
veteran chairman of the MHP, in a very difficult position, as it would
most likely further-weaken his rule inside the MHP. The rumors that AteÅŸ
may soon leave the MHP intensified in April of 2020, when he announced
his resignation from the post of chairman of the Grey Wolves. However,
AteÅŸ did not resign from the MHP, nor did he leave the Grey Wolves. In
his resignation letter, he praised the militant organization and
declared his allegiance to Bahçeli. Nevertheless, many believed that
AteÅŸ’ resignation from the Grey Wolves was the first step in his gradual
distancing from the MHP, a process that would most likely conclude with
him openly joining the Good Party.
Who Killed AteÅŸ?
By all accounts, AteÅŸ was killed just
weeks before officially joining the Good Party. Following his
assassination, some of his closest advisors said he had been holding
rounds of consultations with Good Party leaders in the weeks before he
was killed. So far, 15 individuals have been arrested
by the Ankara Police Department, which is in charge of the
investigation into AteÅŸ’ murder. All have strong connections with the
MHP or the Grey Wolves. Moreover, no senior leader of the Grey Wolves or
the MHP, including Bahçeli, has issued a statement of condolence about
AteÅŸ’ killing. This is highly peculiar, given that AteÅŸ had spent his
entire adult life in the Grey Wolves, and was Bahçeli’s prodigy and
closest confidant.
But was this a political assassination?
One must keep in mind that the Grey Wolves is not simply a political
organization. It is also a powerful economic conglomerate, with complex
business interests that, some claim,
often cross the line between legitimate and illegitimate dealings. Some
of these illicit activities allegedly include the transportation of
illegal drugs, selling protection services, running prostitution rings,
as well as engaging in large-scale human trafficking within Turkey, as
well as in Europe and Asia. It is therefore difficult to separate the
Grey Wolves’ —and arguably MHP’s— political role from its financial
activities. It follows that one should not completely rule out the
possibility of a criminal or mafia-related motive behind AteÅŸ’ killing.
Major Political Ramifications
Nevertheless, AteÅŸ’ assassination has
direct, and possibly enormous, political ramifications for Turkey, as
the already country braces for a highly polarized presidential election
this coming May. Indeed, there is a growing sense among seasoned
observers that the potential consequences of the AteÅŸ affair for the
upcoming election may be just beginning to be seen. There are claims
that, as a result of the MHP-Good Party split, and the ensuing vendetta
between the two factions, the MHP’s electoral support may have dropped
to below 4 percent of the national vote. If true, that would contrast
dramatically with the group’s electoral popularity in 2015, which peaked
at over 14 percent of the national vote.
With a weakened MHP, it is likely that
President ErdoÄŸan’s ability to cling on to power may weaken
substantially in the coming months. Recent polls
show the Turkish strongman may in fact end up third in May’s election,
which would be a remarkable development for such a dominant figure in
modern Turkish political life. For several years now, the MHP has been
referred to as “ErdoÄŸan’s political lifeline”. This lifeline is now
shrinking, and the AteÅŸ affair may deliver the far-right party a fatal
blow. An unstable and weakened MHP would likely have a dramatic impact
on the political future of ErdoÄŸan, and may alter the whole of Turkish
politics in unprecedented ways.
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