A NEW PAPER, PUBLISHED by the United Kingdom’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) for Defence and Security Studies, sheds light the complex relationship between Italy and the West’s two principal adversaries, Russia and China.
Italy is a major global economic power.
It is a prominent member of the Group of Seven (G7), which collectively
account for more than 50 percent of global net wealth. It is also a
member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European
Union (EU).
Despite —or perhaps because of— its
central place in the Western alliance, Italy has long been a leading
advocate for cooperation and dialogue between the West and Russia. In
2019, it became the first G7 member and the first major European Union
power to sign a Memorandum of Understanding with China on Beijing’s Belt
and Road Initiative. Additionally, the Italian private sector has been
far more hesitant than those of other Western countries to abandon
Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, with only a single Italian
company having completely exited the Russian market since February of
this year.
According to two Italian researchers,
RUSI Senior Associate Fellow Raffaello Pantucci, and Eleonora Tafuro
Ambrosetti, of the Italian Institute for International Political Studies
(ISPI), Italy’s cooperative attitude toward China and Russia has led
some to accuse Rome of being a “Trojan horse in Europe”. But in their research paper
published by RUSI earlier this week, Pantucci and Ambrosetti argue that
the reality is far more complex, especially in the case of
Italian-Russian relations. They point out that Italy has, in fact, been a
leading voice in favor of the imposition of harsh sanctions on Moscow
in response to its invasion of Ukraine. Currently the Italian state is
actively seeking to disengage its energy-import sector from Russia.
Strategy of Engagement
The research paper, entitled “Russian and
Chinese Influence in Italy”, argues that Italy’s tendency to “hedge
between its close transatlantic ties and its longstanding connections
with Moscow and Beijing” is not new. In fact it reflects a longstanding
Italian strategy, which tends to remain relatively constant and “does
not change according to the political color of the government in charge”
in Rome. As a result, Italy’s relations with Russia and China “show a
roughly consistent pattern” in the post-Cold War era, as Rome is largely
oriented “toward engagement” with both Moscow and Beijing.
This long-term strategy tends to endure
despite periodic crises in bilateral relations. That was the case
recently, when Rome accused Chinese banks of laundering money using
their branches in Italy, or when an Italian Navy captain
was convicted of selling classified documents to Russia. In such cases,
diplomats are expelled in a tit-for-tat manner, but bilateral relations
are not affected. This can be seen in the case of Libya, in which Italy
has an enduring interest due to its geographic proximity and prior
colonial involvement. Moscow’s diplomacy in Libya has been supported by
Italy, and is viewed by the latter as “if not a model, at least a point
of reference”.
The Economics of Engagement
Crucially, Italy’s close relations with
Russia and —especially— China are strongly supported and sustained by
Italy’s “powerful northern business elite”, Pantucci and Ambrosetti
point out. For instance, Italian business lobbies, such as
Confindustria, the Italian–Russian Chamber of Commerce, or the
Lombardy–Russia Association, are highly influential in promoting Italy’s
pro-engagement strategy with Moscow.
Will this longstanding strategy survive
the global financial crisis and the war in Ukraine? The authors suggest
it probably will, though a number of factors in the equation tend to
introduce an element uncertainty. Among them is the instability of
Italy’s coalition governments, which are finding it increasingly
difficult to last for longer than few months at a time. This is, of
course, a chronic feature of Italian politics. But the current landscape
also brings with it the rise of far-right and extreme-populist
political groupings, which tend to be authoritarian in outlook and at
times look favorably to Russia and China. How this will play out in the
coming months and years is difficult to predict, the authors conclude.
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