MORE THAN HALF OF all terrorist groups fail within a year, while 95 percent of them are extinct within a decade. Yet al-Shabaab, Somalia’s al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist outfit, has been projecting strength in the Horn of Africa for over 15 years, despite having faced much stronger opponents.
Today, with an operational presence in
both Somalia and Kenya, the group maintains a force of between 5,000 and
10,000 full-time fighters. Pointing to its longevity, some observers
view it as the most successful terrorist group of the 21
st century.
What accounts for al-Shabaab’s endurance? According to a recent
article by researcher Zakarie Ahmed Nor kheyre, the secret rests with the group’s sophisticated intelligence wing, the
Amniyat.
Nor kheyre’s article, entitled “The Evolution of the Al-Shabaab
Jihadist Intelligence Structure”, was published on Friday in the
peer-reviewed journal
Intelligence and National Security. The
author argues that counter-terrorism researchers have been focusing on
al-Shabaab’s operational, logistical and financial capabilities, to the
detriment of its formidable intelligence wing. The latter, Nor kheyre
claims, has been a priority of al-Shabaab for years, and is today more
efficient that the Somali federal government’s own intelligence agency,
the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA). He quotes one
Somali insider who exclaims that “without Amniyat, al-Shabaab would be
nothing”.
Based on
interviews with 15 former senior members of Amniyat and the Jabha
(al-Shabaab’s military wing), as well as with several former NISA senior
officials, Nor kheyre’s article provides a remarkably detailed and up-to-date
insight into Amniyat’s command structure and modus operandi. He
delineates the spy unit’s place within al-Shabaab’s “well-defined
organizational structure” and outlines its “centralized-decentralised
cell-based system”, which consists of just a few hundred full-time operatives.
These operatives are tasked with internal security, information collection and
analysis, covert action, as well as espionage and counterintelligence
(primarily “detecting and neutralizing government spies”), Nor kheyre says.
The author
provides detailed accounts of two major areas of Amniyat’s work, namely covert
action (primarily targeted assassinations of Somali politicians and military
officials) and counterintelligence. The latter rests on a strong human
intelligence component, and is both defensive and offensive. The overall
picture of Amniyat’s counterintelligence operations reveals the remarkable
extent to which the group has managed to penetrate the echelons of the Somali
federal government. True to its clandestine mission, Amniyat “operates largely
independently [within al-Shabaab], with its own leadership and logistical and
financial resources”. Operationally, it remains under the direct control of its
commander, Abdulkadir Mohamed Ibrahim (known as Gees Adde), who reports to
al-Shabaab’s Emir, Ahmad Umar (Abu Ubaida).
Nor
kheyre’s insightful article makes a useful contribution to a little-researched
topic, namely how violent non-state actors employ intelligence and
counterintelligence in support of their operations and mission. Those
interested in the topic may also consult Blake Mobley’s book Terrorism and Counterintelligence: How
Terrorist Groups Elude Detection (Columbia University Press, 2012).
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