AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES ASSESSED Russia’s intentions in Ukraine with remarkable precision. Moreover, Washington’s picture of the Russian military’s physical strength has proven highly accurate.
On the other hand, American intelligence
agencies appear to have over-estimated Russia’s conceptual military
power —that is, Moscow’s ability to utilize its physical military
strength efficiently. This, combined with a tendency to underrate the
willingness of the Ukrainian population to resist the Russian invasion,
appears to have led Washington to over-estimate Russia’s chances of a
swift military victory in Ukraine.
American estimates of Russia’s military
power potential before the invasion of Ukraine were largely accurate.
United States intelligence agencies —primarily the Defense Intelligence
Agency and the Central Intelligence Agency— had formed a relatively
precise picture of the Russian military power potential, in terms of its
physical power. This means that, long before the Russian invasion of
Ukraine, Washington was well-versed on the strength of the Russian
military in terms of its size, hardware and firepower.
Moreover,
American intelligence interpreted Russian intentions on Ukraine with remarkable
accuracy. It should be noted that, with the help of its intelligence advisors,
the White House was able to estimate the precise date and time of the invasion of Ukrai
However,
America’s understanding of Russian conceptual power —namely the ability of the
Russian military to utilize its physical resources effectively— was far more
limited. Washington over-estimated the logistical and organizational
capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces. In other words, American intelligence
had a largely accurate picture of the material capabilities of the Russian
military. It had a far less accurate picture of the Russian military’s ability
to use these capabilities effectively. It follows that the unimpressive
performance of the Russian military in Ukraine has surprised American observers,
and has prompted a re-evaluation of Russian military capability estimates in
the American intelligence community.
In terms
of the Ukrainian military, the United States has had a very accurate
understanding of Kyiv’s capabilities for quite some time, given that American
forces have been training core elements of the Ukrainian military for nearly a
decade. American intelligence understood well that the correlation of military
forces overwhelmingly favors Russia. However, American intelligence estimates
undervalued the ability of Ukrainians to coalesce against a common enemy. It is
notable that, in the hours following the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
Washington offered political asylum to senior members of the Volodymyr
Zelenskyy administration. This illustrates the degree to which the United
States underestimated the collective will of the Ukrainian population to fight
against the invader.
Since the
invasion, American intelligence agencies have focused on the situation in
Ukraine with an intensity that can only be compared to the aftermath of the
terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. This intensity has been paying off, as
American intelligence continues to play an increasingly central role in the
war. It should be noted that the Ukrainian Spetsnaz —i.e. the special forces of
Ukraine— are primarily responsible for the setbacks suffered by the Russian
military during the past several weeks. It was these special forces units that
managed to beat back a large-scale Russian heliborne assault on the Antonov Airport
in Hostomel, northwest of Kyiv, which took place during the opening hours of
the invasion. Facing fierce Ukrainian resistance, the Russians sent in their
11th and 31st Guards Air Assault Brigades —roughly equivalent to the United
States’ 82nd Airborne Division— but still failed to secure the airfield. The
latter continues to be contested, as the Ukrainians launch regular
counter-offensives in the wider vicinity. The failure to secure the Antonov
Airport in Hostomel was nothing short of disastrous for Russian war planners.
It meant that Russian forces were unable to quickly fly in troops and vehicles,
which in turn prevented them from realizing their original goal —namely having
their forces in downtown Kyiv by the afternoon of February 25. That crucial
delay gave the Ukrainians time to prepare their defenses and barricade
themselves around numerous zones in Kyiv. The Ukrainian special forces units
that practically stopped Russia from winning the war before it had even begun, had been trained by the United States Central Intelligence Agency and
the Department of Defense for the past decade.
Additionally,
the deep knowledge by American intelligence of the military capabilities of the
Russian forces has allowed Washington and its North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) allies to supply the Ukrainians with the precise types of
weapons needed to combat advancing Russian armored units, especially in an
urban/suburban warfare setting. Versatile weaponry, such as Javelin
man-portable surface-to-air missiles, or NLAW anti-tank weapons, have proven
instrumental in preventing Russian troops from encircling most of Ukraine’s
large cities. The intelligence operation to supply the Ukrainians with such
weapons has been so successful, that the country’s territorial forces have
practically used them all, and now need reinforcements, //prompting// Western
allies to ramp up production of such weaponry.
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