AS THE FULL-SCALE invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Armed Forces continues to unfold, some Western commentators have begun to speculate about the possible launch of an anti-Russian insurgency by the Ukrainian population.
This kind of speculation is not
unreasonable. Indeed, given their enormous disparity in size and might, a
symmetric confrontation between the two belligerents seems unthinkable.
One simply cannot imagine that a direct military confrontation between
Russian and Ukrainian military forces could result in anything other
than a resounding victory for Moscow. However, although the rise of an
armed anti-Russian insurgency in Ukraine is possible, it is unlikely to
be large in scale, and even more unlikely to succeed.
On first glance, Ukraine seems like a
textbook case for a possible insurgency. Russia aside, it is Europe’s
largest country by landmass, with a population of nearly 50 million.
Even under the most favorable conditions, the Russians would find it
difficult to occupy and control it without the consent of the local
populace. Moreover, Ukraine shares borders with seven countries,
including Russia, four of which—Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and
Poland—are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The
geographic proximity of a host of NATO bases would easily allow Western
intelligence agencies to provide the local population with war
materiel, including advanced military hardware and other supplies.
Lastly, due to the protracted war in Donetsk and Luhansk, the Ukrainian
military has amassed significant experience in insurgency over the past
decade.
However, as Brown University visiting professor Lyle Goldstein cautions in a recent article,
things are never simple in war. Although no fewer than four NATO states
border Ukraine, the military alliance and its leading patron, the
United States, will need to exercise immense caution. In using these
states to arm Ukrainian insurgents, Western powers will need to ensure a
maximum degree of plausible deniability. Should Russia determine that
Western countries are using these NATO powers as front-line states in a
new Cold War, it could be tempted to launch military operations against
them—an act that could spiral into an out-of-control multi-state war. It
is also likely that these front-line NATO member-states will resist
calls to be involved in this conflict, in order to avoid being dragged
into a wider regional war.
Moreover, although numerous regions of
Ukraine appear to be under fire at the moment, it is doubtful that the
Russian military will seek to occupy the entire country. Moscow is thus
unlikely to try to extend its control past the largely pro-Russian
regions of eastern and east-central Ukraine. Such a strategy would
ensure that Russian troops would be able to operate in a largely
friendly environment. It would also make it difficult for Ukrainian
insurgents to operate effectively anywhere east of Kiev. Lastly, the
Russian Armed Forces have amassed
substantial counter-insurgency experience in the post-Cold War era,
having fought in large numbers in Chechnya and Syria, as well as in
various regions of Africa through the Wagner Group.
In short, unless the Russians over-play
their hand and try to take over the entire country, Western powers are
likely to find it difficult to organize, support and sustain a concerted
armed insurgency on Ukrainian soil. This does not mean that the ongoing
Russian military campaign in Ukraine will inevitably be successful. War
is inherently unpredictable, so anything can happen in the coming weeks
and months. However, defeating the Russians in any military context
will require many years of extremely brutal, bloody and fierce war.
fecha |
Título |
23/11/2023| |
|
14/11/2023| |
|
06/11/2023| |
|
30/10/2023| |
|
25/10/2023| |
|
23/10/2023| |
|
09/10/2023| |
|
02/10/2023| |
|
19/09/2023| |
|
12/09/2023| |
|
01/09/2023| |
|
28/08/2023| |
|
23/08/2023| |
|
21/08/2023| |
|
16/08/2023| |
|
14/08/2023| |
|
10/08/2023| |
|
07/08/2023| |
|
31/07/2023| |
|
12/07/2023| |
|
11/07/2023| |
|
03/07/2023| |
|
28/06/2023| |
|
25/06/2023| |
|
21/06/2023| |
|
19/06/2023| |
|
12/06/2023| |
|
08/06/2023| |
|
06/06/2023| |
|
05/06/2023| |
|
02/06/2023| |
|
29/05/2023| |
|
24/05/2023| |
|
18/05/2023| |
|
16/05/2023| |
|
13/05/2023| |
|
11/05/2023| |
|
08/05/2023| |
|
05/05/2023| |
|
04/05/2023| |
|
01/05/2023| |
|
18/04/2023| |
|
17/04/2023| |
|
10/04/2023| |
|
03/04/2023| |
|
27/03/2023| |
|
20/03/2023| |
|
17/03/2023| |
|
15/03/2023| |
|
13/03/2023| |
|
08/03/2023| |
|
07/03/2023| |
|
27/02/2023| |
|
21/02/2023| |
|
20/02/2023| |
|
14/02/2023| |
|
13/02/2023| |
|
06/02/2023| |
|
04/02/2023| |
|
01/02/2023| |
|
30/01/2023| |
|
24/01/2023| |
|
18/01/2023| |
|
16/01/2023| |
|
11/01/2023| |
|
10/01/2023| |
|
08/01/2023| |
|
05/01/2023| |
|
03/01/2023| |
|
02/01/2023| |
|
13/12/2022| |
|
05/12/2022| |
|
28/11/2022| |
|
15/11/2022| |
|
08/11/2022| |
|
31/10/2022| |
|
21/10/2022| |
|
17/10/2022| |
|
10/10/2022| |
|
04/10/2022| |
|
26/09/2022| |
|
19/09/2022| |
|
12/09/2022| |
|
05/09/2022| |
|
26/08/2022| |
|
21/08/2022| |
|
08/08/2022| |
|
05/08/2022| |
|
03/08/2022| |
|
28/07/2022| |
|
25/07/2022| |
|
21/07/2022| |
|
14/07/2022| |
|
12/07/2022| |
|
09/07/2022| |
|
22/06/2022| |
|
13/06/2022| |
|
25/05/2022| |
|
16/05/2022| |
|
12/05/2022| |
|
06/05/2022| |
|
05/05/2022| |
|
02/05/2022| |
|
25/04/2022| |
|
23/04/2022| |
|
21/04/2022| |
|
14/04/2022| |
|
13/04/2022| |
|
08/04/2022| |
|
31/03/2022| |
|
28/03/2022| |
|
25/03/2022| |
|
24/03/2022| |
|
21/03/2022| |
|
15/03/2022| |
|
14/03/2022| |
|
12/03/2022| |
|
04/03/2022| |
|
01/03/2022| |
|
27/02/2022| |
|
25/02/2022| |
|
23/02/2022| |
|
21/02/2022| |
|
14/02/2022| |
|
10/02/2022| |
|
08/02/2022| |
|
07/02/2022| |
|
04/02/2022| |
|
01/02/2022| |
|
31/01/2022| |
|
28/01/2022| |
|
26/01/2022| |
|
25/01/2022| |
|
24/01/2022| |
|
23/01/2022| |
|
21/01/2022| |
|
14/01/2022| |
|
12/01/2022| |
|
11/01/2022| |
|
10/01/2022| |
|
07/01/2022| |
|
05/01/2022| |
|
03/01/2022| |
|
30/12/2021| |
|
23/12/2021| |
|
22/12/2021| |
|
21/12/2021| |
|
20/12/2021| |
|
16/12/2021| |
|
14/12/2021| |
|
11/12/2021| |
|
09/12/2021| |
|
04/12/2021| |
|
02/12/2021| |
|
01/12/2021| |
|
29/11/2021| |
|
21/11/2021| |
|
19/11/2021| |
|
16/11/2021| |
|
15/11/2021| |
|
11/11/2021| |
|
10/11/2021| |
|
08/11/2021| |
|
06/11/2021| |
|
05/11/2021| |
|
01/11/2021| |
|
30/10/2021| |
|
28/10/2021| |
|
27/10/2021| |
|
26/10/2021| |
|
20/07/2021| |
|
19/07/2021| |
|
18/07/2021| |
|
15/07/2021| |
|
13/07/2021| |
|
10/07/2021| |
|
07/07/2021| |
|
05/07/2021| |
|
04/07/2021| |
|
01/07/2021| |
|
29/06/2021| |
|
28/06/2021| |
|
24/06/2021| |
|
23/06/2021| |
|
22/06/2021| |
|
15/06/2021| |
|
13/06/2021| |
|
12/06/2021| |
|
08/06/2021| |
|
07/06/2021| |
|
04/06/2021| |
|
03/06/2021| |
|
01/06/2021| |
|
28/05/2021| |
|
27/05/2021| |
|
26/03/2021| |
|
25/03/2021| |
|
23/03/2021| |
|
21/03/2021| |
|
15/03/2021| |
|
10/03/2021| |
|
09/03/2021| |
|
10/12/2020| |
|
09/12/2020| |
|
07/12/2020| |
|
03/12/2020| |
|
02/12/2020| |
|
30/11/2020| |
|
25/11/2020| |
|
23/11/2020| |
|
20/11/2020| |
|
19/11/2020| |
|
29/10/2020| |
|
27/10/2020| |
|
22/10/2020| |
|
21/10/2020| |
|
17/10/2020| |
|
14/10/2020| |
|
12/10/2020| |
|
09/10/2020| |
|
07/10/2020| |
|
03/10/2020| |
|
25/09/2020| |
|
23/09/2020| |
|
21/09/2020| |
|
19/09/2020| |
|
18/09/2020| |
|
15/09/2020| |
|
14/09/2020| |
|
07/09/2020| |
|
05/09/2020| |
|
01/09/2020| |
|
30/08/2020| |
|
27/08/2020| |
|
27/08/2020| |
|
24/08/2020| |
|
20/08/2020| |
|
19/08/2020| |
|
14/08/2020| |
|
13/08/2020| |
|
11/08/2020| |
|
10/08/2020| |
|
09/08/2020| |
|
08/08/2020| |
|
06/08/2020| |
|
05/08/2020| |
|
04/08/2020| |
|
02/08/2020| |
|
30/07/2020| |
|
28/07/2020| |
|
22/07/2020| |
|
21/07/2020| |
|
20/07/2020| |
|
18/07/2020| |
|
17/07/2020| |
|
14/07/2020| |
|
12/07/2020| |
|
11/07/2020| |
|
09/07/2020| |
|
08/07/2020| |
|
05/07/2020| |
|
01/07/2020| |
|
29/06/2020| |
|
25/06/2020| |
|
23/06/2020| |
|
21/06/2020| |
|
19/06/2020| |
|
17/06/2020| |
|
16/06/2020| |
|
09/06/2020| |
|
07/06/2020| |
|
03/06/2020| |
|
31/05/2020| |
|
30/05/2020| |
|
29/05/2020| |
|
27/05/2020| |
|
22/05/2020| |
|
19/05/2020| |
|
17/05/2020| |
|
12/05/2020| |
|
11/05/2020| |
|
09/05/2020| |
|
07/05/2020| |
|
04/05/2020| |
|
02/05/2020| |
|
28/04/2020| |
|
08/03/2020| |
|
06/03/2020| |
|
04/03/2020| |
|
21/02/2020| |
|
19/02/2020| |
|
14/02/2020| |
|
13/02/2020| |
|
07/02/2020| |
|
06/02/2020| |
|
06/02/2020| |
|
23/01/2020| |
|
18/01/2020| |
|
16/01/2020| |
|
07/01/2020| |
|
05/01/2020| |
|
03/01/2020| |
|
23/12/2019| |
|
20/12/2019| |
|
16/12/2019| |
|
15/12/2019| |
|
14/12/2019| |
|
12/12/2019| |
|
11/12/2019| |
|
10/12/2019| |
|
08/12/2019| |
|
25/11/2019| |
|
23/11/2019| |
|
22/11/2019| |
|
18/11/2019| |
|
15/11/2019| |
|
12/11/2019| |
|
11/11/2019| |
|
10/11/2019| |
|
09/11/2019| |
|
08/11/2019| |
|
07/11/2019| |
|
06/11/2019| |
|
28/10/2019| |
|
24/10/2019| |
|
23/10/2019| |
|
21/10/2019| |
|
20/10/2019| |
|
19/10/2019| |
|
18/10/2019| |
|
17/10/2019| |
|
16/10/2019| |
|
15/10/2019| |
|
15/10/2019| |
|
13/10/2019| |
|
03/10/2019| |
|
01/10/2019| |
|
30/09/2019| |
|
29/09/2019| |
|
18/09/2019| |
|
16/09/2019| |
|
15/09/2019| |
|
14/09/2019| |
|
11/09/2019| |
|
10/09/2019| |
|
07/09/2019| |
|
05/09/2019| |
|
01/09/2019| |
|
31/08/2019| |
|
30/08/2019| |
|
29/08/2019| |
|
24/08/2019| |
|
23/08/2019| |
|
22/08/2019| |
|
20/08/2019| |
|
19/08/2019| |
|
18/08/2019| |
|
17/08/2019| |
|
13/08/2019| |
|
11/08/2019| |
|
10/08/2019| |
|
09/08/2019| |
|
02/08/2019| |
|
31/07/2019| |
|
30/07/2019| |
|
29/07/2019| |
|
19/07/2019| |
|
18/07/2019| |
|
17/07/2019| |
|
16/07/2019| |
|
12/07/2019| |
|
05/07/2019| |
|
04/07/2019| |
|
01/07/2019| |
|
29/06/2019| |
|
26/06/2019| |
|
28/12/2018| |
|
28/12/2018| |
|
24/12/2018| |
|
21/12/2018| |
|
18/12/2018| |
|
15/12/2018| |
|
14/12/2018| |
|
11/12/2018| |
|
09/12/2018| |
|
07/12/2018| |
|
06/12/2018| |
|
03/12/2018| |
|
02/12/2018| |
|
30/11/2018| |
|
29/11/2018| |
|
27/11/2018| |
|
25/11/2018| |
|
24/11/2018| |
|
08/11/2018| |
|
07/11/2018| |
|
04/11/2018| |
|
03/11/2018| |
|
31/10/2018| |
|
19/10/2018| |
|
16/10/2018| |
|
12/10/2018| |
|
11/10/2018| |
|
08/10/2018| |
|
06/10/2018| |
|
05/10/2018| |
|
25/09/2018| |
|
23/09/2018| |
|
22/09/2018| |
|
20/09/2018| |
|
18/09/2018| |
|
13/09/2018| |
|
11/09/2018| |
|
08/09/2018| |
|
07/09/2018| |
|
05/09/2018| |
|
04/09/2018| |
|
02/09/2018| |
|
01/09/2018| |
|
29/08/2018| |
|
24/08/2018| |
|
23/08/2018| |
|
18/08/2018| |
|
16/08/2018| |
|
14/08/2018| |
|
13/08/2018| |
|
11/08/2018| |
|
05/08/2018| |
|
03/08/2018| |
|
02/08/2018| |
|
30/07/2018| |
|
26/07/2018| |
|
24/07/2018| |
|
19/07/2018| |
|
16/07/2018| |
|
16/07/2018| |
|
16/07/2018| |
|
12/07/2018| |
|
11/07/2018| |
|
02/07/2018| |
|
29/06/2018| |
|
26/06/2018| |
|
23/06/2018| |
|
19/06/2018| |
|
13/06/2018| |
|
12/06/2018| |
|
02/06/2018| |
|
31/05/2018| |
|
25/05/2018| |
|
21/05/2018| |
|
19/05/2018| |
|
18/05/2018| |
|
25/03/2018| |
|
24/03/2018| |
|
14/03/2018| |
|
10/03/2018| |
|
09/03/2018| |
|