Intelligence insiders, including a former senior Central Intelligence Agency operations officer who spent decades in the Middle East, have described the establishment of official relations between Israel and some Gulf States as “the biggest change in the region in decades”.
The former CIA official, Marc Polymeropoulos, who worked closely with both Israel and the Palestinians in his 26-year career, told SpyTalk’s
Jeff Stein and Jonathan Broder that secret intelligence links between
Israel and some Arab countries are nothing new. However, “this [new] overt
alliance is the biggest change in the region in decades”, said
Polymeropoulos. He added that these intelligence links will only deepen
now that official diplomatic relations have been established between
Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
In their analysis, Stein and Broder explain
that these historic developments in the Middle East were initially
forged “in secret political interactions” facilitated in the
intelligence domain. These were led by the Mossad, which has been tasked
by the Israeli leadership with creating a regional alliance against
Iran. These efforts have intensified in recent years, especially after
the administration of United States Donald Trump annulled the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran, which effectively signaled the
resumption of Tehran’s nuclear program.
The end of the Joint Comprehensive Plan
of Action, and the deepening polarization between Sunni and Shia
populations in the Middle East, were the context in which the Israeli
outreach to Arab states took shape. This context essentially convinced
Arab leaders that their populations are sufficiently concerned about
Iran to “stomach an alliance with Israel” Polymeropoulos told SpyTalk.
What’s next in this process? Stein and Broder suggest
that Mossad officials will continue to reach out to their Arab
counterparts, in secret, in the coming months, as part of Israel’s
effort to build an alliance against Iran. These efforts will be
crucially amplified by the White House, which recently sent US Secretary
of State Mike Pompeo to Sudan in order to pressure the country’s new
government to recognize Israel. In the meantime, say Stein and Broder,
Mossad will become a lot more active in the Emirates and Bahrain.
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