As an intense debate rages in the United States about Moscow’s alleged subversion of American military goals in Afghanistan, sources warn that Russia is increasingly challenging Washington’s troops in Syria.
Recent
reports
have alleged that the Kremlin has been offering financial rewards to
Taliban fighters encouraging them to kill US troops in Afghanistan. The
Russian government has
denied these allegations, while the White House
claims it was never briefed about this by the Intelligence Community.
Some experts suggest, however, that
Russia’s growing involvement in Afghanistan may be part of a wider
effort by Moscow to test the limits of American military presence in
Asia. This can be seen as a predictable response by the Russians, given
that US President Donald Trump has repeatedly indicated he is not a fan
of substantial American military involvement abroad. According to a new report
by Politico, Russia’s challenge can be observed, not only in
Afghanistan, but also in Syria, where American and Russian troops have
been present in the same battlespace for over five years now.
In the past, the two militaries have kept
open lines of communication to ensure that they stay clear from each
other, thus avoiding a major escalation between the two nuclear-armed
nations. Consequently, despite supporting opposing sides in the war,
Russian and American troops have not directly challenged each other,
with very few exceptions.
Presently Russian forces continue to support of the Syrian President,
Bashar al-Assad, while several hundred US forces are working closely
with Kurdish fighters, who control territory in eastern Syria.
Despite the pullout of most American
troops from the region in the past two years, the US maintains a force
of nearly 1,000 soldiers in the Deir al-Zour region of eastern Syria.
These are closely coordinating with Kurdish peshmerga, whose primary
tasks include guarding the region’s lucrative oil fields, thus starving
the government of President al-Assad of a major source of revenue. In
the past, Russian troops have rarely ventured in the Kurdish-controlled
region, in full knowledge of the US military presence there. Lately,
however, brushes between American and Russian troops in Deir al-Zour
have been “increasingly frequent”, according to Politico, which cited
“two current US officials and one former US official” in its report.
The sources told the website that Russia
has been deploying its military forces “closer and closer to US
positions”, to the point that now the two militaries “interact multiple
times a week, if not daily”. This is a major change from this time last
year, when such interactions were reportedly extremely rare. In some
cases, American and Russian troops have engaged in standoffs that lasted
several hours, though none led to violence, as they were successfully
diffused without escalation.
However, the change in Russian tactics,
which also involves Moscow’s Iranian-led partners in the region, appears
to be aimed at trying “to squeeze the US military out of the region”,
according to observers who spoke to Politico. More broadly, developments
in Syria appear to be part of attempts by Russia to “test the US
commitment to remaining in the broader Middle East”. At the same time,
the Russian military is reportedly building a new military base in northern Syria, near the Turkish border.
Strategically, it may be useful to view
the change of Russia’s tactics in Syria in connection with its allegedly
more aggressive methods in Afghanistan. These may be designed to “test
US resolve” in Afghanistan and beyond, according
to former CIA officer Doug London, who is now with the Middle East
Institute in Washington, DC. The Russians “will just continued to
escalate until checked”, said London.
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