Iraq is currently witnessing the largest resurgence of the Islamic State since December of 2017, when the Iraqi government declared it had defeated the group, according to local and international observers.
The Sunni militant group, which became
known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), is exploiting a
moment of opportunity, as Iraqi security forces, Shia militias and
American troops are essentially sheltering in place to avoid the effects
of COVID-19.
Iraq has been on involuntary lockdown
since March 22 in response to the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.
The country’s security forces are busy providing humanitarian relief to
communities under lockdown. Additionally, large numbers of soldiers and
police officers are either sick or sheltering in place with their
families and are not turning up for work. Furthermore, United States
forces have significantly scaled back their presence in the country
following the assassination of Iranian military commander Qasem
Soleimani in January of this year, in an effort to avoid armed
confrontations with Iraq’s pro-Iranian militias.
These conditions are allowing
Islamic State fighters to emerge from hiding and conduct operations in
nearly every province of Iraq. Last week the militant group launched a
series of coordinated attacks in nearly 30 different locations across
Iraq, which left dozens of Iraqi security forces and Shia militia
members dead. Additionally, Islamic State saboteurs destroyed several
power lines across northeastern Iraq, disrupting electricity supply to
tens of thousands of homes in the region.
On Tuesday, Iraqi security forces teamed
up with the Popular Mobilization Forces —a mostly Shia paramilitary
group— to launch several operations against the Islamic State. The
operations aimed to neutralize known Islamic State enclaves in mostly
Sunni regions of northern and western Iraq. They also aimed to capture
Islamic State regional commanders, most of whom operate along Iraq’s
borders with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Syria.
But nobody knows how this campaign will
end up in light of the coronavirus. The pandemic is causing major
disruption on the Iraqi economy, while the historic drop in oil prices
is dramatically reducing the nation’s primary source of income. The
Islamic State thrives in conditions of instability, which is precisely
what many fear, as the effects of the pandemic are continuing to
manifest in the Middle East.
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