Senior White House officials close to United States President Donald Trump believed that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was bluffing when he threatened to invade northern Syria, according to sources.
For over two
years, most of northern Syria has been controlled by American-supported
Kurdish militias, who were instrumental in helping Washington defeat the
Islamic State. But the growing strength of the Kurdish forces alarmed
Turkey, which views Kurdish nationalism as a bigger threat than the
Islamic State.
Since 2016,
Ankara repeatedly threatened to invade northern Syria and disarm the
Kurdish groups, which it sees as terrorist. It had refrained from doing
so due to the presence of American troops in the area. However,
according to news website Axios, key officials in the Trump White House
were convinced that Turkish President Erdoğan would not have his troops
invade northern Syria even if the American forces pulled out. In making
this claim, the website cites
six unnamed sources “with direct knowledge of the situation”, some of
whom were allegedly “in the room with the two leaders and had access to
their phone calls going back several years.
In one of
these phone calls, which took place in 2017, President Erdoğan allegedly
informed the US leader of his government’s intention to “move in to
take care of the Kurdish threat” in northern Syria. But President Trump
cautioned him about making such a daring move. He reminded the Turkish
leader that, by invading northern Syria, Turkey would become responsible
for the tens of thousands of Islamic State supporters and their
families who are kept in detention camps. Ankara would also face mass
international condemnation and possible sanctions from the United States
and Europe. Moreover, the US-trained and -supplied Kurdish forces would
arguably create a military quagmire for Turkish troops in the region.
At that point Turkey “would own” the problem and would not be able to
“come to [the US] for help”, according to Trump.
The Axios report
claims that, until last week, the White House thought that “Erdoğan
would never actually go through with his long-threatened Syria
invasion”, because doing so would be detrimental to Turkish interests in
the region. Based on that conviction, President Trump finally decided
to call Erdoğan’s bluff by pulling American Special Forces troops out of
northern Syria, in the belief that Tukey’s response would amount to
nothing further than a few airstrikes and small-scale cross-border
incursions. That belief was behind the White House’s surprise decision
to suddenly pull its troops from northern Syria, according to Axios’
sources.
The report did
not mention whether the US Intelligence Community’s reports to the
White House concurred with the US President’s conviction that Turkey
would not invade northern Syria even in the absence of US troops. The
question is, in other words, did Trump made up his mind about Erdoğan’s
intentions to invade northern Syria because, or despite the conclusions of his own Intelligence Community?.
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