Officials in the United States, Europe and the Middle East have warned that thousands of jailed members of the Islamic State could escape from Kurdish-controlled prisons in northern Syria if Turkey invades the region.
For more than two years, the area has been controlled by
American-supported Kurdish militias, who were instrumental in helping
Washington defeat the Islamic State —also known as Islamic State of Iraq
and Syria, or ISIS. But the growing strength of the Kurdish forces has
alarmed Turkey, which views Kurdish nationalism in the region as a
bigger threat than Salafi jihadism. Ankara has repeatedly threatened to
invade northern Syria and disarm the Kurdish groups, which it sees as
terrorist.
The continuous
presence of American troops in northern Syria has served to dissuade
Turkey from invading. Yesterday, however, the White House surprised
observers by announcing its sudden decision to pull its troops from
northern Syria. Washington’s unexpected move drew criticism from Kurdish
commanders who spoke of betrayal, as well as by members of both
political parties in Congress. Security officials also expressed fears
that Turkey’s focus on the Kurds could allow ISIS to regroup in northern
Syria. A statement issued by the White House on Monday said that Turkey
would assume control of over 10,000 captured ISIS fighters who are
currently being held in Kurdish-administered prison camps in northern
Syria. But experts said
that the wider Kurdish-controlled region of northern Syria, which
Turkey intends to capture, is home to dozens of prisons with over 60,000
captured ISIS supporters in them. What will be the fate of these
prisoners under Turkish control?
Security observers have repeatedly accused
Turkey in the past of turning a blind eye to ISIS, whose members fought
a prolonged and bloody war against Iraqi and Syrian Kurds from 2016 to
2018. There are no guarantees that the Turks will not utilize a
resurgent ISIS to suppress Kurdish nationalism in the region. In fact,
some experts, including retired American generals, warned on Monday that a Turkish invasion of northern Syria would give ISIS “a golden chance to regroup”. There are concerns
of mass breakouts of ISIS members from Kurdish-controlled prisons in
Syria, amidst the widespread chaos caused by a Turkish military
onslaught. Such breakouts have been encouraged by ISIS leaders,
including Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi himself. Escaped prisoners would most
likely join the nearly 20,000 estimated ISIS fighters who are still at
large in Iraq and Syria, thus contributing to a potentially catastrophic
regeneration of the militant Sunni group, according to experts.
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