About 1,000 Islamic State fighters have returned to Iraq in recent months and are waging a low-level insurgency that threatens to destabilize rural areas and may be the forerunner of a new sectarian war, an expert has warned.
Thousands of fighters belonging to the
Islamic State —known also as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or
ISIS— crossed into Syria in late 2017. In December of that year, the
Iraqi government of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory in
the war against the militant Sunni group. Since then, however, many of
these fighters have been slipping back into Iraq from Syria and are now
picking up arms again against the Iraqi state, which they see as being
dominated by Iran-allied Shiites.
In an article published on Sunday, The Washington Post
cites Hisham al-Hashimi, an Iraqi security advisor to the government in
Baghdad, as well as several foreign aid groups, who warns that ISIS is
regrouping in Iraq. Al-Hashimi told The Post that approximately
1,000 ISIS fighters are believed to have crossed into Iraq from Syria
since December of 2018. Most of them are Iraqi nationals who are
essentially returning to the Sunni-majority areas of the country that
were considered ISIS strongholds before 2018. Upon their return, the
fighters join small ISIS cells that operate mostly in rural areas in
central and northern Iraq. They move at night and are intimately
familiar with the local terrain, which allows them to utilize
effectively a variety of hiding places. These cells can now be found in
locations ranging from the city of Kirkuk in the north to the province
of Diyala, east of Baghdad. They are responsible for scores of
kidnappings, roadside bombings and sniper attacks that target local
officials and security personnel. Local observers stress that the
re-emerging ISIS cells are too weak to threaten the territorial control
of the country by the Iraqi government. However, they are rapidly
destabilizing rural areas in the country and appear to be preparing for a
protracted insurgency that could potentially lead to another major
sectarian war.
The Washington Post report comes a month after a group of researchers with the Institute for the Study of War warned
that the Islamic State is capable of making a sudden comeback in the
Middle East that could be “faster and even more devastating” than 2014,
when the group quickly conquered territory the size of Britain. In a
76-page paper entitled ISIS’s Second Comeback: Assessing the Next ISIS Insurgency,
the researchers said that the militant group had managed to subvert
Iraqi and Syrian government efforts to reintroduce stability and safety
in areas previously under ISIS domination. Not only were government
forces finding it “increasingly difficult to establish durable and
legitimate security and political structures” in those areas, but they
should be worried about the possibility of ISIS actually reconquering
territory in both Iraq and Syria, the report warned.
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