The Fox administration has refused to involve federal troops, though it has vowed to resolve the situation before the end of the president's term. Despite this promise, and additional public pressure from President-elect Felipe Calderon, Fox is unlikely to use any significant federal force to intervene in Oaxaca.

Oaxacan Gov. Ulises Ruiz Ortiz on Sept. 26 asked Mexican President Vicente Fox to use federal force to re-establish order and resolve the months-old protests in his state. This follows a Sept. 25 statement by a Fox spokesman, who said the administration plans to resolve the Oaxaca conflict before the president's term ends Nov. 30. Fox has since said that the use of force in a federal response has not been ruled out.

Ruiz's plea for assistance reflects his increasing unease with the conflict in his state, while Fox's position is a response to the Oaxaca marchers' upcoming arrival in Mexico City and public statements from President-elect Felipe Calderon calling for a clean, conflict-free change of administration. But it is unlikely Fox will take any decisive or meaningful action before leaving office.

The Oaxaca conflict, which began in May as an unresolved strike by the state's teachers, has since escalated. The initial teacher strike and protest was not unexpected; nearly every May, Oaxacan teachers strike, issue demands, peacefully negotiate with authorities and return to work. This year's prolonged protest is different. In addition to customary demands for increased salaries and funding for education, the teachers demanded a rezoning of Oaxaca that would result in an increase in the federally mandated minimum wage. This far-reaching demand drew more attention from both the government and radical fringe groups. In an attempt to quell the protest, Ruiz -- a member of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) -- ordered that tear gas be used on the protesters. This action had two results: It added Ruiz's resignation to the teachers' list of demands, and it attracted more radical groups to the movement, which are now united as the Popular Assembly of the People of Oaxaca (APPO).

Over the past few months, the APPO has taken control of radio and television stations in the state, occasionally clashing with local police. Shots have been fired at the protesters at their campsites, and also outside the governor's hotel; the gunmen remain unidentified, but are widely believed to be PRI-hired henchmen. The protesters began a 315-mile march to Mexico City Sept. 22 to set up a demonstration in front of the Senate building -- a move that ramps up their demonstration, placing their cause in a national spotlight and putting greater pressure on Ruiz to step down. The fact that Fox's vow to resolve the conflict within the next two months came at the last possible moment shows his reluctance to intervene; it also indicates that he is not likely to use federal forces in a meaningful way.

With his term as president drawing to a close, Fox has no incentive to put himself out on a limb -- and sending in federal forces would be a serious departure from the Mexican federal government's historical reluctance to intervene in state issues. Fox will likely take a more passive approach, such as urging further negotiations between Ruiz and the APPO. While these negotiations would almost undoubtedly fail, they could drag on long enough for Fox to leave office and make the Oaxaca conflict Calderon's problem. In the unlikely event of federal forces' intervention, the forces will only marginally address the issue in a way that allows Fox to claim a victory -- possibly by establishing a presence to discourage further protests but not actually ending the conflict.

The continued conflict in Oaxaca is significant for the upcoming president. Given the small margin by which he won office, Calderon already faces a divided populace. Defeated presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has established a resistance government, declaring himself president of Mexico and organizing a Cabinet. While Lopez Obrador's protest movement has lost much of its momentum, Calderon still faces a presidency marred by allegations of electoral fraud and corruption. If the Fox administration leaves the Oaxaca protest unresolved, Calderon will have yet another issue with which to contend, distracting him from the energy, immigration and trade issues he has sought to address, and possibly crippling his effectiveness as president.

The Oaxaca conflict has raged for months, ignored by the federal government, which has been distracted by post-electoral conflicts since the July 2 election. But as the demonstrators' march to the capital approaches, this state issue is becoming a national problem. The Fox administration's reluctance to use federal troops to quell the protests, and the improbability of successful negotiations, indicate Calderon will be handed a presidency with significant loose ends.